NBA forecasts, on the record

Every game forecast. Every forecast graded.

5,432
games graded
65.1%
winners picked
67%
2026-27 winners picked

An independent NBA model that forecasts every game and grades every forecast against the final score.

3538 of 5432 forecasts picked the winner.

Hover the ball to see a season.

3,538 winners picked 1,894 missed Each dot is one of 5,432 games, oldest at the center (2022-23) and spiraling out to 2026-27.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 12:08 AM ET Injury report none yet How forecasts are locked

Biggest surprise of the week

Nov 8 – Nov 14 · All surprise games

UpsetCHI beat MIN on Nov 14. The model gave CHI a 14% chance.

TeamWin chanceForecastFinalResult
CHI15%106117✓ Won
@MINpicked86%121106

Forecast: MIN by 15. Final: CHI by 11. Missed the margin by 26 points.Game breakdown →NBA.com recap ↗

Surprising relative to this model's forecast. Which teams are hardest to forecast?