2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

POR 1–0@SAC 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	117	128	+11
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	112	120	+8

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1533	1363
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−100
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.1	−10.8
Games played this season	1	1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.9	113.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.4	121.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1533SAC1363

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1533

Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
This season's 1 game: +22.0

WPHX124–83+22.0

SAC1363

Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
This season's 1 game: −6.8

L@LAC96–121−6.8

Season scoring marginPOR+1.1SAC−10.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+1.1

Scores 124.0, allows 83.0 over 1 game: +41.0 a game.

5% this season (+41.0) + 95% last season (−1.0) = +1.1

SAC−10.8

Scores 96.0, allows 121.0 over 1 game: −25.0 a game.

5% this season (−25.0) + 95% last season (−10.0) = −10.8

Offensive rating, last 10POR110.9SAC113.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR110.9scored, −3.7 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.5%	−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	26.1%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			+0.1

SAC113.0scored, −1.5 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.5%	−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.2%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.5%	26.1%	+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			−1.0

Defensive rating, last 10POR112.4SAC121.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR112.4allowed, −2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	54.5%	+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.2%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.9%	26.1%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.210	−0.0
Everything else			+0.7

SAC121.5allowed, +6.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.0%	54.5%	−6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.2%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	26.1%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.240	0.210	−0.9
Everything else			−0.9

Pace, last 10average 97.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.3 and SAC 98.5 → average 97.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Oct 21 against PHX.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 21 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 21	PHX	124–83	45-94	19-47	15-18	17	16	126.5	86.5	97.0
Apr 28	@SAS	95–114	33-94	11-47	18-23	9	14	99.0	121.3	95.0
Apr 26	SAS	93–114	32-80	10-31	19-23	18	7	93.0	116.3	99.0
Apr 24	SAS	108–120	37-90	14-38	20-29	10	16	109.1	122.4	98.5
Apr 21	@SAS	106–103	38-89	13-38	17-23	15	15	108.2	106.2	97.5
Apr 19	@SAS	98–111	39-91	10-38	10-12	10	8	102.1	116.8	95.5
Apr 12	SAC	122–110	47-101	16-46	12-15	12	18	123.2	112.2	98.5
Apr 10	LAC	116–97	37-83	12-39	30-35	13	14	122.1	102.1	95.0
Apr 8	@SAS	101–112	42-93	12-37	5-10	16	11	100.0	110.9	101.0
Apr 6	@DEN	132–137	42-89	25-52	23-28	15	11	125.7	129.2	95.5

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 21	@LAC	96–121	36-85	8-28	16-28	17	11	91.4	116.3	104.5
Apr 12	@POR	110–122	40-83	7-21	23-31	16	15	112.2	123.2	98.5
Apr 10	GSW	124–118	41-89	17-44	25-34	16	16	121.6	115.7	102.0
Apr 7	@GSW	105–110	41-87	11-31	12-17	14	13	111.7	114.6	95.0
Apr 5	LAC	109–138	45-85	9-32	10-20	20	11	105.8	135.3	102.5
Apr 3	NOP	117–113	46-90	10-33	15-20	14	11	118.2	115.3	98.5
Apr 1	@TOR	123–115	42-92	12-33	27-29	13	19	126.8	117.3	97.5
Mar 29	@BKN	99–116	36-84	10-32	17-25	15	11	103.1	122.1	95.5
Mar 28	@ATL	113–123	45-93	12-32	11-13	15	14	116.5	126.8	97.0
Mar 26	@ORL	117–121	45-88	14-33	13-16	9	9	123.2	128.7	94.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

64%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

POR was the forecast favorite

3 pts

margin miss

forecast −5, actual −8 for SAC

87th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

116th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	SAC
Final score	128	120
Field goals	46–96 · 47.9%	42–91 · 46.2%
Three-pointers	14–48 · 29.2%	8–32 · 25.0%
Free throws	22–30 · 73.3%	28–30 · 93.3%
Rebounds	45	42
Assists	30	21
Turnovers	9	14
Steals	8	5
Blocks	5	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Sacramento Kings

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	−5	−8	−3
Total points	229	248	+19
POR points	117	128	+11
SAC points	112	120	+8

Recent form before this game