The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

MIN 0–0@MIA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIN 53 percent, MIA 47 percent. MIN Timberwolves 53% proj. 120 · final 131 MIA Heat · home 47% proj. 119 · final 106
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 120 131 +11
MIA Miami Heat (home) 119 106 −13

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMINMIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15531518
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +36
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.2+2.3
Games played this season 00
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.4123.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.0123.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1553MIA1518

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1553

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. No games played yet this season.

MIA1518

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginMIN+2.2MIA+2.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+2.2

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+2.2) = +2.2

MIA+2.3

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+2.3) = +2.3

Offensive rating, last 10MIN107.4MIA123.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN107.4scored, −7.2 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.7%54.5%−8.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.210−0.2
Everything else−0.1

MIA123.5scored, +8.9 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.0%54.5%+6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.2%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.2%26.1%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2090.210−0.0
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10MIN113.0MIA123.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN113.0allowed, −1.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.5%+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2670.210−1.6
Everything else+1.0

MIA123.9allowed, +9.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.2%54.5%−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)9.2%12.2%−4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%26.1%+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.210+0.8
Everything else−2.3
Pace, last 10average 101.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 100.5 and MIA 101.8 → average 101.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0MIA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMIN5 daysMIA5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN5days

Last played May 15 against SAS (159 days, capped at 5).

MIA5days

Last played Apr 12 against ATL (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0
May 6@SAS95–13335-889-3016-31221286.4122.0109.5
May 4@SAS104–10241-9010-2612-211012108.3106.396.0
Apr 30DEN110–9843-947-2917-24719118.3105.493.0
Apr 27@DEN113–12541-8112-2819-23259109.7122.5102.5
Apr 25DEN112–9639-899-2525-261216119.1101.194.5
Apr 23DEN113–9644-939-3416-211012111.995.0101.0

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0
Apr 9@TOR114–12846-8214-358-14136121.3136.294.0
Apr 7@TOR95–12133-9112-4417-19151093.1118.6102.0
Apr 4WAS152–13654-9317-3927-341410142.1125.9107.5
Apr 1BOS129–14744-9524-4717-23912130.3151.598.0
Mar 30PHI119–10943-9311-4022-291116117.8109.0100.5
Mar 29@IND118–13546-9913-3713-18710114.6129.8103.5
Mar 27@CLE128–14940-9115-4633-381311118.5136.7108.5
Mar 25@CLE120–10342-8118-4518-22125123.7106.297.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
24 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual −25 for MIA
59th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
19th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMINMIA
Final score131106
Field goals46–98 · 46.9%39–81 · 48.1%
Three-pointers21–50 · 42.0%8–33 · 24.2%
Free throws18–29 · 62.1%20–26 · 76.9%
Rebounds5234
Assists2027
Turnovers1418
Steals117
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Miami Heat

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)−1−25−24
Total points239237−2
MIN points120131+11
MIA points119106−13

Recent form before this game

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
May 15 vs SAS L 109–139
May 12 at SAS L 97–126
May 10 vs SAS W 114–109
May 8 vs SAS L 108–115
May 6 at SAS L 95–133

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 vs ATL W 143–117
Apr 10 at WAS W 140–117
Apr 9 at TOR L 114–128
Apr 7 at TOR L 95–121
Apr 4 vs WAS W 152–136

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Jan 6 2025-26 MIA at MIN MIA 94 – 122 MIN
Jan 3 2025-26 MIN at MIA MIN 125 – 115 MIA
Mar 7 2024-25 MIN at MIA MIN 106 – 104 MIA
Nov 10 2024-25 MIA at MIN MIA 95 – 94 MIN
Dec 18 2023-24 MIN at MIA MIN 112 – 108 MIA