2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

MIN 1–0@ORL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	112	115	+3
ORL Orlando Magic (home)	115	93	−22

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	ORL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1574	1527
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+22
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.3	+0.1
Games played this season	1	1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.7	104.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.5	107.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1574ORL1527

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1574

Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
This season's 1 game: +21.7

W@MIA131–106+21.7

ORL1527

Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
This season's 1 game: −11.1

LATL125–132−11.1

Season scoring marginMIN+3.3ORL+0.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+3.3

Scores 131.0, allows 106.0 over 1 game: +25.0 a game.

5% this season (+25.0) + 95% last season (+2.2) = +3.3

ORL+0.1

Scores 125.0, allows 132.0 over 1 game: −7.0 a game.

5% this season (−7.0) + 95% last season (+0.5) = +0.1

Offensive rating, last 10MIN108.7ORL104.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN108.7scored, −5.9 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.3%	54.5%	−7.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.2%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.9%	26.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			+0.2

ORL104.9scored, −9.7 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	48.6%	54.5%	−9.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.2%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.1%	26.1%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.249	0.210	+1.1
Everything else			−0.5

Defensive rating, last 10MIN113.5ORL107.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN113.5allowed, −1.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.8%	54.5%	−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.2%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.2%	26.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.253	0.210	−1.2
Everything else			+1.1

ORL107.6allowed, −7.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.8%	54.5%	+5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.7%	12.2%	+3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.7%	26.1%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.263	0.210	−1.5
Everything else			−0.4

Pace, last 10average 100.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 101.0 and ORL 99.2 → average 100.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0ORL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysORL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Oct 21 against MIA.

ORL2days

Last played Oct 21 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 21	@MIA	131–106	46-98	21-50	18-29	14	17	124.8	100.0	105.5
May 15	SAS	109–139	40-106	12-34	17-21	5	9	103.8	133.7	104.5
May 12	@SAS	97–126	32-83	9-33	24-30	13	10	94.2	122.3	103.0
May 10	SAS	114–109	42-94	10-27	20-22	17	15	115.2	107.9	100.0
May 8	SAS	108–115	38-99	14-40	18-21	12	15	106.9	113.9	101.0
May 6	@SAS	95–133	35-88	9-30	16-31	22	12	86.4	122.0	109.5
May 4	@SAS	104–102	41-90	10-26	12-21	10	12	108.3	106.3	96.0
Apr 30	DEN	110–98	43-94	7-29	17-24	7	19	118.3	105.4	93.0
Apr 27	@DEN	113–125	41-81	12-28	19-23	25	9	109.7	122.5	102.5
Apr 25	DEN	112–96	39-89	9-25	25-26	12	16	119.1	101.1	94.5

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 21	ATL	125–132	41-85	13-40	30-39	20	9	114.7	118.9	110.0
May 3	@DET	94–116	31-75	10-30	22-30	13	9	102.2	126.1	92.0
May 1	DET	79–93	27-78	9-36	16-21	10	8	89.8	105.7	88.0
Apr 29	@DET	109–116	38-80	17-38	16-30	16	8	111.2	120.8	97.0
Apr 27	DET	94–88	30-92	9-35	25-34	10	16	94.9	89.8	98.5
Apr 25	DET	113–105	36-89	15-33	26-33	14	14	117.7	109.4	96.0
Apr 22	@DET	83–98	26-80	8-32	23-32	17	13	83.8	99.0	99.0
Apr 19	@DET	112–101	44-90	10-34	14-19	12	11	113.1	103.1	98.5
Apr 12	@BOS	108–113	36-91	12-43	24-30	19	14	102.9	107.6	105.0
Apr 10	@CHI	127–103	49-94	13-37	16-24	14	12	118.7	95.4	107.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

41%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

the forecast favored ORL

25 pts

margin miss

forecast +3, actual −22 for ORL

28th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

16th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	ORL
Final score	115	93
Field goals	42–98 · 42.9%	37–84 · 44.0%
Three-pointers	14–37 · 37.8%	8–39 · 20.5%
Free throws	17–30 · 56.7%	11–19 · 57.9%
Rebounds	61	43
Assists	33	23
Turnovers	12	16
Steals	8	7
Blocks	4	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Orlando Magic

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)	+3	−22	−25
Total points	227	208	−19
MIN points	112	115	+3
ORL points	115	93	−22

Recent form before this game