2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

HOU 1–0@SAS 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
HOU Houston Rockets	109	114	+5
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	112	110	−2

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	HOU	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1571	1687
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+186
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.4	+7.1
Games played this season	1	1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.4	110.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.9	109.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1571SAS1687

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1571

Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
This season's 1 game: +4.9

WDAL128–110+4.9

SAS1687

Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
This season's 1 game: −15.8

LOKC104–116−15.8

Season scoring marginHOU+5.4SAS+7.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU+5.4

Scores 128.0, allows 110.0 over 1 game: +18.0 a game.

5% this season (+18.0) + 95% last season (+4.7) = +5.4

SAS+7.1

Scores 104.0, allows 116.0 over 1 game: −12.0 a game.

5% this season (−12.0) + 95% last season (+8.2) = +7.1

Offensive rating, last 10HOU113.4SAS110.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU113.4scored, −1.2 vs league

Factor	HOU	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	54.5%	−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	34.5%	26.1%	+3.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.210	+0.2
Everything else			−0.9

SAS110.6scored, −4.0 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.8%	54.5%	−7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.5%	26.1%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.251	0.210	+1.2
Everything else			+1.6

Defensive rating, last 10HOU108.9SAS109.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU108.9allowed, −5.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.5%	−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.2%	+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.4%	26.1%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.225	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			+1.7

SAS109.1allowed, −5.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.4%	54.5%	+6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.2%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	26.1%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			+0.0

Pace, last 10average 96.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 95.8 and SAS 98.0 → average 96.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingHOU0.0SAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestHOU2 daysSAS3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU2days

Last played Oct 21 against DAL.

SAS3days

Last played Oct 20 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 21	DAL	128–110	47-88	16-36	18-25	15	17	130.6	111.1	98.5
May 1	LAL	78–98	28-80	5-28	17-24	11	8	83.9	106.5	92.5
Apr 29	@LAL	99–93	33-75	14-40	19-25	10	6	110.0	103.3	90.0
Apr 26	LAL	115–96	39-81	12-30	25-31	13	11	122.3	103.2	93.5
Apr 24	LAL	108–112	40-98	11-39	17-23	15	18	104.9	105.7	94.6
Apr 21	@LAL	94–101	36-89	7-29	15-19	15	17	105.6	112.2	89.5
Apr 18	@LAL	98–107	35-93	11-33	17-25	13	21	104.3	113.8	94.0
Apr 12	MEM	132–101	48-105	14-49	22-30	11	19	128.2	98.1	103.0
Apr 10	MIN	132–136	53-87	4-19	22-28	12	11	133.3	136.0	99.5
Apr 9	PHI	113–102	42-93	11-32	18-26	15	16	110.8	99.0	102.5

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 20	OKC	104–116	36-93	10-37	22-25	13	10	102.0	113.7	102.0
Jun 10	@NYK	106–107	36-86	17-43	17-20	11	12	112.8	115.1	93.5
Jun 8	@NYK	115–111	39-84	12-34	25-32	8	6	123.7	119.4	93.0
Jun 5	NYK	104–105	37-78	11-29	19-27	16	5	105.1	108.2	98.0
Jun 3	NYK	95–105	32-89	11-43	20-25	13	14	96.0	105.0	99.5
May 30	@OKC	111–103	40-88	17-40	14-19	12	15	120.7	109.6	93.0
May 28	OKC	118–91	41-88	15-41	21-25	12	11	119.2	91.0	99.5
May 26	@OKC	114–127	37-92	12-41	28-32	15	15	112.9	124.5	101.5
May 24	OKC	103–82	35-90	9-33	24-32	12	14	102.0	80.4	101.5
May 22	OKC	108–123	34-80	13-41	27-33	15	9	111.3	124.2	98.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

41%

pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner

the forecast favored SAS

7 pts

margin miss

forecast +3, actual −4 for SAS

28th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

88th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	HOU	SAS
Final score	114	110
Field goals	38–78 · 48.7%	40–87 · 46.0%
Three-pointers	10–25 · 40.0%	12–37 · 32.4%
Free throws	28–31 · 90.3%	18–25 · 72.0%
Rebounds	44	40
Assists	24	21
Turnovers	15	15
Steals	11	10
Blocks	5	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · San Antonio Spurs

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	+3	−4	−7
Total points	221	224	+3
HOU points	109	114	+5
SAS points	112	110	−2

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 21	vs DAL	W 128–110
May 1	vs LAL	L 78–98
Apr 29	at LAL	W 99–93
Apr 26	vs LAL	W 115–96
Apr 24	vs LAL	L 108–112

San Antonio Spurs

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 20	vs OKC	L 104–116
Jun 10	at NYK	L 106–107
Jun 8	at NYK	W 115–111
Jun 5	vs NYK	L 104–105
Jun 3	vs NYK	L 95–105

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 8 2025-26	HOU at SAS	HOU 120 – 145 SAS
Jan 28 2025-26	SAS at HOU	SAS 111 – 99 HOU
Jan 20 2025-26	SAS at HOU	SAS 106 – 111 HOU
Nov 7 2025-26	HOU at SAS	HOU 110 – 121 SAS
Feb 26 2024-25	SAS at HOU	SAS 106 – 118 HOU