2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAS 0–2@DAL 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	123	122	−1
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	112	106	−6

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1676	1401
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−206
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+6.5	−4.9
Games played this season	2	2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.7	112.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.4	119.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	23.0
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1676DAL1401

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1676

Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
This season's 2 games: −26.9

LOKC104–116−15.8
LHOU110–114−11.1

DAL1401

Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
This season's 2 games: +12.9

L@HOU110–128−4.9
W@IND121–105+17.8

Season scoring marginSAS+6.5DAL−4.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+6.5

Scores 107.0, allows 115.0 over 2 games: −8.0 a game.

10% this season (−8.0) + 90% last season (+8.2) = +6.5

DAL−4.9

Scores 115.5, allows 116.5 over 2 games: −1.0 a game.

10% this season (−1.0) + 90% last season (−5.3) = −4.9

Offensive rating, last 10SAS110.7DAL112.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAS110.7scored, −3.9 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.0%	54.5%	−6.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	26.1%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.238	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			+1.7

DAL112.6scored, −2.0 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.3%	54.5%	−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.2%	+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	26.1%	−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.239	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			+1.1

Defensive rating, last 10SAS108.4DAL119.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAS108.4allowed, −6.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.1%	54.5%	+6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.2%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	26.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			−0.4

DAL119.8allowed, +5.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.5%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.2%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.7%	26.1%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.217	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 97.9 and DAL 103.5 → average 100.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0DAL23.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

DAL23.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Cooper Flagg	23.0	25.0	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysDAL1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against HOU.

DAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	HOU	110–114	40-87	12-37	18-25	15	9	112.2	117.5	97.5
Oct 20	OKC	104–116	36-93	10-37	22-25	13	10	102.0	113.7	102.0
Jun 10	@NYK	106–107	36-86	17-43	17-20	11	12	112.8	115.1	93.5
Jun 8	@NYK	115–111	39-84	12-34	25-32	8	6	123.7	119.4	93.0
Jun 5	NYK	104–105	37-78	11-29	19-27	16	5	105.1	108.2	98.0
Jun 3	NYK	95–105	32-89	11-43	20-25	13	14	96.0	105.0	99.5
May 30	@OKC	111–103	40-88	17-40	14-19	12	15	120.7	109.6	93.0
May 28	OKC	118–91	41-88	15-41	21-25	12	11	119.2	91.0	99.5
May 26	@OKC	114–127	37-92	12-41	28-32	15	15	112.9	124.5	101.5
May 24	OKC	103–82	35-90	9-33	24-32	12	14	102.0	80.4	101.5

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	@IND	121–105	44-88	14-34	19-23	14	11	121.0	105.0	100.0
Oct 21	@HOU	110–128	41-80	11-38	17-26	21	8	111.1	130.6	98.5
Apr 12	CHI	149–128	52-100	22-49	23-27	18	15	134.2	114.3	111.5
Apr 10	@SAS	120–139	45-98	15-40	15-19	7	12	121.2	139.0	99.5
Apr 8	@PHX	107–112	37-89	13-36	20-22	8	10	112.6	117.9	95.0
Apr 7	@LAC	103–116	35-100	6-33	27-28	8	14	97.2	109.4	106.0
Apr 5	LAL	134–128	46-88	14-32	28-36	7	8	131.4	124.3	102.5
Apr 3	ORL	127–138	44-95	14-42	25-31	13	11	115.5	126.6	109.5
Mar 31	@MIL	99–123	34-96	10-36	21-28	14	10	90.8	111.8	109.5
Mar 30	MIN	94–124	31-89	7-29	25-34	15	8	91.3	119.2	103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

78%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

SAS was the forecast favorite

5 pts

margin miss

forecast −11, actual −16 for DAL

131st

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

102nd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.24 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	DAL
Final score	122	106
Field goals	48–101 · 47.5%	45–87 · 51.7%
Three-pointers	15–42 · 35.7%	11–28 · 39.3%
Free throws	11–16 · 68.8%	5–8 · 62.5%
Rebounds	43	42
Assists	34	29
Turnovers	12	18
Steals	12	8
Blocks	8	6

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Dallas Mavericks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	−11	−16	−5
Total points	235	228	−7
SAS points	123	122	−1
DAL points	112	106	−6

Recent form before this game