2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

ATL 0–0@ORL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
ATL Atlanta Hawks	111	132	+21
ORL Orlando Magic (home)	113	125	+12

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	ATL	ORL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1526	1538
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+82
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.1	+0.5
Games played this season	0	0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	107.5	106.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.0	107.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	5	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1526ORL1538

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1526

Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
No games played yet this season.

ORL1538

Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
No games played yet this season.

Season scoring marginATL+1.1ORL+0.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+1.1

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+1.1) = +1.1

ORL+0.5

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+0.5) = +0.5

Offensive rating, last 10ATL107.5ORL106.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL107.5scored, −7.0 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.8%	54.5%	−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.2%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	26.1%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.171	0.210	−1.1
Everything else			−0.8

ORL106.5scored, −8.1 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.0%	54.5%	−8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.2%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.2%	26.1%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.233	0.210	+0.7
Everything else			−0.5

Defensive rating, last 10ATL120.0ORL107.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL120.0allowed, +5.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.6%	54.5%	−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.2%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.6%	26.1%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.234	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			−0.2

ORL107.6allowed, −7.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.5%	+5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.7%	12.2%	+3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	26.1%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.243	0.210	−0.9
Everything else			−0.7

Pace, last 10average 98.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 98.7 and ORL 98.3 → average 98.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingATL0.0ORL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestATL5 daysORL5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL5days

Last played Apr 30 against NYK (174 days, capped at 5).

ORL5days

Last played May 3 against DET (171 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 30	NYK	89–140	31-82	9-35	18-23	19	11	89.0	141.4	99.5
Apr 28	@NYK	97–126	37-83	13-42	10-17	10	5	103.2	134.0	94.0
Apr 25	NYK	98–114	34-83	10-41	20-25	18	12	104.3	121.3	94.0
Apr 23	NYK	109–108	39-86	13-33	18-26	16	13	107.9	106.9	101.0
Apr 20	@NYK	107–106	40-81	9-30	18-23	11	6	116.3	114.0	92.5
Apr 18	@NYK	102–113	38-87	14-37	12-19	12	8	103.0	114.1	99.0
Apr 12	@MIA	117–143	44-93	17-44	12-18	16	13	111.4	137.5	104.5
Apr 10	CLE	124–102	45-93	16-44	18-25	11	14	121.6	100.0	102.0
Apr 8	@CLE	116–122	47-98	12-34	10-15	11	10	110.5	117.3	104.5
Apr 6	NYK	105–108	38-95	16-42	13-17	14	19	108.2	113.7	96.0

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 3	@DET	94–116	31-75	10-30	22-30	13	9	102.2	126.1	92.0
May 1	DET	79–93	27-78	9-36	16-21	10	8	89.8	105.7	88.0
Apr 29	@DET	109–116	38-80	17-38	16-30	16	8	111.2	120.8	97.0
Apr 27	DET	94–88	30-92	9-35	25-34	10	16	94.9	89.8	98.5
Apr 25	DET	113–105	36-89	15-33	26-33	14	14	117.7	109.4	96.0
Apr 22	@DET	83–98	26-80	8-32	23-32	17	13	83.8	99.0	99.0
Apr 19	@DET	112–101	44-90	10-34	14-19	12	11	113.1	103.1	98.5
Apr 12	@BOS	108–113	36-91	12-43	24-30	19	14	102.9	107.6	105.0
Apr 10	@CHI	127–103	49-94	13-37	16-24	14	12	118.7	95.4	107.5
Apr 8	MIN	132–120	51-95	12-29	18-23	16	19	130.7	118.8	101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner

the forecast favored ORL

9 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual −7 for ORL

37th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

67th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	ATL	ORL
Final score	132	125
Field goals	44–90 · 48.9%	41–85 · 48.2%
Three-pointers	14–36 · 38.9%	13–40 · 32.5%
Free throws	30–36 · 83.3%	30–39 · 76.9%
Rebounds	42	39
Assists	28	30
Turnovers	17	20
Steals	9	10
Blocks	3	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Orlando Magic

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)	+2	−7	−9
Total points	224	257	+33
ATL points	111	132	+21
ORL points	113	125	+12

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

Date	Opponent	Result
Apr 30	vs NYK	L 89–140
Apr 28	at NYK	L 97–126
Apr 25	vs NYK	L 98–114
Apr 23	vs NYK	W 109–108
Apr 20	at NYK	W 107–106

Orlando Magic

Date	Opponent	Result
May 3	at DET	L 94–116
May 1	vs DET	L 79–93
Apr 29	at DET	L 109–116
Apr 27	vs DET	W 94–88
Apr 25	vs DET	W 113–105

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Apr 1 2025-26	ATL at ORL	ATL 130 – 101 ORL
Mar 16 2025-26	ORL at ATL	ORL 112 – 124 ATL
Nov 4 2025-26	ORL at ATL	ORL 112 – 127 ATL
Oct 24 2025-26	ATL at ORL	ATL 111 – 107 ORL
Apr 13 2024-25	ORL at ATL	ORL 105 – 117 ATL