The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

MIL 0–0@WAS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 41 percent, WAS 59 percent. MIL Bucks 41% proj. 121 · final 116 WAS Wizards · home 59% proj. 124 · final 128
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 121 116 −5
WAS Washington Wizards (home) 124 128 +4

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMILWAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13831280
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −33
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.2−12.0
Games played this season 00
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.1109.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.8127.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1383WAS1280

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1383

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. No games played yet this season.

WAS1280

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginMIL−6.2WAS−12.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL−6.2

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−6.2) = −6.2

WAS−12.0

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−12.0) = −12.0

Offensive rating, last 10MIL113.1WAS109.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL113.1scored, −1.5 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%54.5%+5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)15.6%12.2%−4.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1510.210−1.7
Everything else−0.1

WAS109.6scored, −5.0 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)15.0%26.1%−5.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.210−1.3
Everything else+2.6
Defensive rating, last 10MIL120.8WAS127.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL120.8allowed, +6.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.5%−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.2%−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+0.6

WAS127.0allowed, +12.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)62.0%54.5%−11.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.6%26.1%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2460.210−1.1
Everything else+2.3
Pace, last 10average 101.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 98.3 and WAS 103.8 → average 101.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0WAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

WAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMIL5 daysWAS5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL5days

Last played Apr 12 against PHI (192 days, capped at 5).

WAS5days

Last played Apr 12 against CLE (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0
Apr 5MEM131–11550-8316-3215-242010129.7112.7101.5
Apr 3BOS101–13335-8321-4710-13138109.8141.593.0
Apr 1@HOU113–11942-8917-4012-161513121.5125.394.0
Mar 31DAL123–9941-9220-5421-261612111.890.8109.5
Mar 29LAC113–12740-7720-4413-15224111.9125.7101.0
Mar 28SAS95–12738-8714-465-618897.9129.697.5

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@CLE117–13042-9018-4115-19125117.0128.7100.5
Apr 10MIA117–14046-9214-3111-14134113.6135.9103.0
Apr 9CHI108–11938-9610-3822-271710100.9111.2107.0
Apr 7CHI98–12937-8611-3813-2121389.9119.4108.5
Apr 5@BKN115–12144-799-2518-28204116.2122.299.0
Apr 4@MIA136–15250-10617-4019-24913125.9142.1107.5
Apr 1PHI131–15350-9616-4015-17117124.8147.1104.5
Mar 30@LAL101–12041-937-3512-1695101.0117.6101.0
Mar 29@POR88–12332-875-2219-2215285.4119.4103.0
Mar 27@GSW126–13150-9518-428-10113121.2126.0104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner
WAS was the forecast favorite
9 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +12 for WAS
70th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILWAS
Final score116128
Field goals41–91 · 45.1%45–86 · 52.3%
Three-pointers15–41 · 36.6%6–28 · 21.4%
Free throws19–23 · 82.6%32–41 · 78.0%
Rebounds4144
Assists2828
Turnovers1611
Steals511
Blocks27

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Washington Wizards

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)+3+12+9
Total points245244−1
MIL points121116−5
WAS points124128+4

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at PHI L 106–126
Apr 10 vs BKN W 125–108
Apr 8 at DET L 111–137
Apr 7 at BKN L 90–96
Apr 5 vs MEM W 131–115

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at CLE L 117–130
Apr 10 vs MIA L 117–140
Apr 9 vs CHI L 108–119
Apr 7 vs CHI L 98–129
Apr 5 at BKN L 115–121

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Jan 29 2025-26 MIL at WAS MIL 99 – 109 WAS
Dec 31 2025-26 WAS at MIL WAS 114 – 113 MIL
Dec 1 2025-26 MIL at WAS MIL 126 – 129 WAS
Oct 22 2025-26 WAS at MIL WAS 120 – 133 MIL
Feb 21 2024-25 MIL at WAS MIL 104 – 101 WAS