The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 4:00 PM ET

CHI 0–1@MIL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHI 47 percent, MIL 53 percent. CHI Bulls 47% proj. 121 · final 132 MIL Bucks · home 53% proj. 122 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHI Chicago Bulls 121 132 +11
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) 122 125 +3

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHIMIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13691370
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +71
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −7.1−6.5
Games played this season 11
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 106.1114.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.2120.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHI1369MIL1370

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHI1369

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1339 → started this one at 1379
  2. This season's 1 game: −10.0
  • L@TOR92–135−10.0

MIL1370

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 1 game: −13.1
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
Season scoring marginCHI−7.1MIL−6.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHI−7.1

Scores 92.0, allows 135.0 over 1 game: −43.0 a game.

5% this season (−43.0) + 95% last season (−5.2) = −7.1

MIL−6.5

Scores 116.0, allows 128.0 over 1 game: −12.0 a game.

5% this season (−12.0) + 95% last season (−6.2) = −6.5

Offensive rating, last 10CHI106.1MIL114.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHI106.1scored, −8.5 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.5%−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.2%−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.9%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2350.210+0.7
Everything else−2.0

MIL114.6scored, −0.0 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.0%54.5%+5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)15.3%12.2%−4.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%26.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.210−1.3
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10CHI119.2MIL120.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHI119.2allowed, +4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.5%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else−1.9

MIL120.2allowed, +5.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.5%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.2%−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2480.210−1.1
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 103.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHI 107.2 and MIL 98.9 → average 103.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHI0.0MIL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestCHI2 daysMIL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI2days

Last played Oct 21 against TOR.

MIL2days

Last played Oct 21 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@TOR92–13527-854-3634-47272182.1122.7111.0
Apr 12@DAL128–14952-10610-3814-191311114.3134.2111.5
Apr 10ORL103–12738-8710-3917-26201095.4118.7107.5
Apr 9@WAS119–10843-939-3024-251513111.2100.9107.0
Apr 7@WAS129–9846-9415-4522-27139119.489.9108.5
Apr 5PHX110–12041-9110-3918-231814105.8117.6103.0
Apr 3@NYK96–13635-8111-3515-2616996.0136.0100.0
Apr 1IND126–14547-9713-3919-262012114.5134.3109.0
Mar 30@SAS114–12943-9313-4415-21107111.8125.2102.5
Mar 28@MEM124–12541-8210-3332-432310110.7112.6111.5

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0
Apr 5MEM131–11550-8316-3215-242010129.7112.7101.5
Apr 3BOS101–13335-8321-4710-13138109.8141.593.0
Apr 1@HOU113–11942-8917-4012-161513121.5125.394.0
Mar 31DAL123–9941-9220-5421-261612111.890.8109.5
Mar 29LAC113–12740-7720-4413-15224111.9125.7101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
47%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHI, the winner
the forecast favored MIL
8 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual −7 for MIL
45th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
79th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHIMIL
Final score132125
Field goals46–98 · 46.9%46–92 · 50.0%
Three-pointers12–45 · 26.7%19–46 · 41.3%
Free throws28–30 · 93.3%14–26 · 53.8%
Rebounds4444
Assists2929
Turnovers1419
Steals105
Blocks66

How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Milwaukee Bucks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)+1−7−8
Total points243257+14
CHI points121132+11
MIL points122125+3

Recent form before this game

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at TOR L 92–135
Apr 12 at DAL L 128–149
Apr 10 vs ORL L 103–127
Apr 9 at WAS W 119–108
Apr 7 at WAS W 129–98

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at WAS L 116–128
Apr 12 at PHI L 106–126
Apr 10 vs BKN W 125–108
Apr 8 at DET L 111–137
Apr 7 at BKN L 90–96

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Mar 1 2025-26 MIL at CHI MIL 97 – 120 CHI
Feb 3 2025-26 CHI at MIL CHI 115 – 131 MIL
Dec 27 2025-26 MIL at CHI MIL 112 – 103 CHI
Nov 7 2025-26 CHI at MIL CHI 110 – 126 MIL
Dec 28 2024-25 MIL at CHI MIL 111 – 116 CHI