The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

CHI 0–0@TOR 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHI 28 percent, TOR 72 percent. CHI Bulls 28% proj. 115 · final 92 TOR Raptors · home 72% proj. 123 · final 135
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHI Chicago Bulls 115 92 −23
TOR Toronto Raptors (home) 123 135 +12

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHITOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13791541
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +232
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.2+2.5
Games played this season 00
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.7115.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.5113.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHI1379TOR1541

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHI1379

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1339 → started this one at 1379
  2. No games played yet this season.

TOR1541

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginCHI−5.2TOR+2.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHI−5.2

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−5.2) = −5.2

TOR+2.5

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+2.5) = +2.5

Offensive rating, last 10CHI108.7TOR115.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHI108.7scored, −5.9 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.2%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%26.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210+0.0
Everything else−1.8

TOR115.8scored, +1.2 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.5%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.5%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2320.210+0.6
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10CHI119.5TOR113.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHI119.5allowed, +5.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%26.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.210+0.7
Everything else−2.1

TOR113.3allowed, −1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.5%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.2%+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHI 106.5 and TOR 96.8 → average 101.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHI0.0TOR0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

TOR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestCHI5 daysTOR5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI5days

Last played Apr 12 against DAL (192 days, capped at 5).

TOR5days

Last played May 3 against CLE (171 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@DAL128–14952-10610-3814-191311114.3134.2111.5
Apr 10ORL103–12738-8710-3917-26201095.4118.7107.5
Apr 9@WAS119–10843-939-3024-251513111.2100.9107.0
Apr 7@WAS129–9846-9415-4522-27139119.489.9108.5
Apr 5PHX110–12041-9110-3918-231814105.8117.6103.0
Apr 3@NYK96–13635-8111-3515-2616996.0136.0100.0
Apr 1IND126–14547-9713-3919-262012114.5134.3109.0
Mar 30@SAS114–12943-9313-4415-21107111.8125.2102.5
Mar 28@MEM124–12541-8210-3332-432310110.7112.6111.5
Mar 27@OKC113–13141-9815-4716-211210107.6126.0104.5

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9
Apr 29@CLE120–12544-9515-3817-251415118.8122.5101.5
Apr 26CLE93–8931-974-3027-36112194.991.897.5
Apr 23CLE126–10450-8714-2312-211111132.6108.395.5
Apr 20@CLE105–11542-837-2614-172212107.1116.298.5
Apr 18@CLE113–12637-7113-2726-35174115.3127.398.5
Apr 12BKN136–10151-8012-2722-29103136.0101.0100.0
Apr 10@NYK95–11236-7310-2513-20177102.2120.493.0
Apr 9MIA128–11444-8613-3027-34410136.2121.394.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
72%
pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner
TOR was the forecast favorite
35 pts
margin miss
forecast +8, actual +43 for TOR
109th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
3rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHITOR
Final score92135
Field goals27–85 · 31.8%44–98 · 44.9%
Three-pointers4–36 · 11.1%10–31 · 32.3%
Free throws34–47 · 72.3%37–46 · 80.4%
Rebounds5751
Assists1631
Turnovers2710
Steals615
Blocks56

How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Toronto Raptors

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)+8+43+35
Total points238227−11
CHI points11592−23
TOR points123135+12

Recent form before this game

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at DAL L 128–149
Apr 10 vs ORL L 103–127
Apr 9 at WAS W 119–108
Apr 7 at WAS W 129–98
Apr 5 vs PHX L 110–120

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
May 3 at CLE L 102–114
May 1 vs CLE W 112–110
Apr 29 at CLE L 120–125
Apr 26 vs CLE W 93–89
Apr 23 vs CLE W 126–104

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Mar 18 2025-26 TOR at CHI TOR 139 – 109 CHI
Feb 19 2025-26 TOR at CHI TOR 110 – 101 CHI
Feb 5 2025-26 CHI at TOR CHI 107 – 123 TOR
Apr 1 2024-25 TOR at CHI TOR 118 – 137 CHI
Feb 28 2024-25 TOR at CHI TOR 115 – 125 CHI