The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

DAL 0–1@IND 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 44 percent, IND 56 percent. DAL Mavericks 44% proj. 119 · final 121 IND Pacers · home 56% proj. 121 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 119 121 +2
IND Indiana Pacers (home) 121 105 −16

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDALIND
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13831383
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +70
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.9−7.4
Games played this season 11
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.2113.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.3114.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1383IND1383

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1383

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 1 game: −4.9
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9

IND1383

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 1 game: +8.2
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
Season scoring marginDAL−5.9IND−7.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL−5.9

Scores 110.0, allows 128.0 over 1 game: −18.0 a game.

5% this season (−18.0) + 95% last season (−5.3) = −5.9

IND−7.4

Scores 123.0, allows 120.0 over 1 game: +3.0 a game.

5% this season (+3.0) + 95% last season (−8.0) = −7.4

Offensive rating, last 10DAL110.2IND113.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL110.2scored, −4.4 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.5%−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.3%26.1%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2430.210+0.9
Everything else+0.8

IND113.5scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)16.5%26.1%−4.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.210−1.1
Everything else+2.3
Defensive rating, last 10DAL118.3IND114.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL118.3allowed, +3.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.4%54.5%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.210−0.4
Everything else+0.8

IND114.6allowed, −0.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.5%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.2%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.1%26.1%−2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1850.210+0.7
Everything else+2.6
Pace, last 10average 103.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 104.0 and IND 103.2 → average 103.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDAL0.0IND0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysIND2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Oct 21 against HOU.

IND2days

Last played Oct 21 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5
Apr 12CHI149–12852-10022-4923-271815134.2114.3111.5
Apr 10@SAS120–13945-9815-4015-19712121.2139.099.5
Apr 8@PHX107–11237-8913-3620-22810112.6117.995.0
Apr 7@LAC103–11635-1006-3327-2881497.2109.4106.0
Apr 5LAL134–12846-8814-3228-3678131.4124.3102.5
Apr 3ORL127–13844-9514-4225-311311115.5126.6109.5
Mar 31@MIL99–12334-9610-3621-28141090.8111.8109.5
Mar 30MIN94–12431-897-2925-3415891.3119.2103.5
Mar 27@POR100–9336-817-2421-3017696.289.4104.0

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0
Apr 7MIN104–12435-739-2625-31224101.0119.2103.5
Apr 5@CLE108–11733-8617-4425-29107109.1118.299.0
Apr 3@CHA108–12943-9315-367-101110109.1130.399.0
Apr 1@CHI145–12658-10220-489-10136134.3114.5109.0
Mar 29MIA135–11853-9218-3911-13113129.8114.6103.5
Mar 27LAC113–11443-8716-3611-15208111.9115.2100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
44%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored IND
18 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual −16 for IND
37th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
35th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALIND
Final score121105
Field goals44–88 · 50.0%39–88 · 44.3%
Three-pointers14–34 · 41.2%7–32 · 21.9%
Free throws19–23 · 82.6%20–28 · 71.4%
Rebounds4642
Assists2827
Turnovers1419
Steals106
Blocks116

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Indiana Pacers

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (IND)+2−16−18
Total points240226−14
DAL points119121+2
IND points121105−16

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at HOU L 110–128
Apr 12 vs CHI W 149–128
Apr 10 at SAS L 120–139
Apr 8 at PHX L 107–112
Apr 7 at LAC L 103–116

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at NOP W 123–120
Apr 12 vs DET L 121–133
Apr 10 vs PHI L 94–105
Apr 9 at BKN W 123–94
Apr 7 vs MIN L 104–124

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Feb 22 2025-26 DAL at IND DAL 134 – 130 IND
Oct 29 2025-26 IND at DAL IND 105 – 107 DAL
Mar 19 2024-25 DAL at IND DAL 131 – 135 IND
Nov 4 2024-25 IND at DAL IND 134 – 127 DAL
Mar 5 2023-24 IND at DAL IND 137 – 120 DAL