The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

NOP 0–1@UTA 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NOP 56 percent, UTA 44 percent. NOP Pelicans 56% proj. 123 · final 119 UTA Jazz · home 44% proj. 121 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 123 119 −4
UTA Utah Jazz (home) 121 120 −1

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNOPUTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14161324
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −22
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.4−9.0
Games played this season 11
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.1108.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.0122.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 106.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1416UTA1324

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1416

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 1 game: −8.2
  • LIND120–123−8.2

UTA1324

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
  2. This season's 1 game: −12.8
  • L@MEM103–123−12.8
Season scoring marginNOP−4.4UTA−9.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−4.4

Scores 120.0, allows 123.0 over 1 game: −3.0 a game.

5% this season (−3.0) + 95% last season (−4.5) = −4.4

UTA−9.0

Scores 103.0, allows 123.0 over 1 game: −20.0 a game.

5% this season (−20.0) + 95% last season (−8.4) = −9.0

Offensive rating, last 10NOP111.1UTA108.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP111.1scored, −3.5 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%54.5%−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.210+1.0
Everything else+0.9

UTA108.5scored, −6.1 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.210−1.3
Everything else−2.9
Defensive rating, last 10NOP121.0UTA122.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP121.0allowed, +6.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.5%−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.2%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else+0.5

UTA122.6allowed, +8.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.8%54.5%−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210+0.3
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 106.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 104.5 and UTA 108.2 → average 106.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNOP0.0UTA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysUTA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Oct 21 against IND.

UTA2days

Last played Oct 21 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0
Apr 7UTA156–13761-10614-3420-23168127.9112.3122.0
Apr 5ORL108–11235-8410-3128-36159102.9107.7104.5
Apr 3@SAC113–11740-8414-3419-21137115.3118.298.5
Apr 2@POR106–11838-849-2321-261912107.1116.8100.0
Mar 29HOU102–13437-869-2919-28108102.0135.499.5
Mar 27@TOR106–11939-937-2821-251315106.0119.0100.0
Mar 26@DET108–12944-959-2511-241516104.9124.0103.5

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@MEM103–12335-7511-3222-3318599.0118.3104.0
Apr 12@LAL107–13141-947-3418-271614101.9123.6105.5
Apr 10MEM147–10162-11015-358-17168121.583.5121.0
Apr 7@NOP137–15653-10410-3221-24167112.3127.9122.0
Apr 5@OKC111–14643-10014-3911-151614101.8136.4108.0
Apr 3@HOU106–14043-965-2715-221317102.9138.6102.0
Apr 1DEN117–13044-9512-3717-251210109.3121.5107.0
Mar 30CLE113–12242-8815-2914-20158110.8119.6102.0
Mar 28@PHX109–13443-9210-2313-191410103.8127.6105.0
Mar 27@DEN129–13553-959-3314-19108121.7128.6105.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
44%
pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner
the forecast favored NOP
3 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +1 for UTA
35th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
116th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNOPUTA
Final score119120
Field goals44–87 · 50.6%41–84 · 48.8%
Three-pointers8–26 · 30.8%13–35 · 37.1%
Free throws23–27 · 85.2%25–33 · 75.8%
Rebounds3742
Assists1831
Turnovers1518
Steals154
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Utah Jazz

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)−2+1+3
Total points244239−5
NOP points123119−4
UTA points121120−1

Recent form before this game

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs IND L 120–123
Apr 12 at MIN L 126–132
Apr 10 at BOS L 118–144
Apr 7 vs UTA W 156–137
Apr 5 vs ORL L 108–112

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at MEM L 103–123
Apr 12 at LAL L 107–131
Apr 10 vs MEM W 147–101
Apr 7 at NOP L 137–156
Apr 5 at OKC L 111–146

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Apr 7 2025-26 UTA at NOP UTA 137 – 156 NOP
Feb 28 2025-26 NOP at UTA NOP 115 – 105 UTA
Feb 26 2025-26 NOP at UTA NOP 129 – 118 UTA
Mar 2 2024-25 NOP at UTA NOP 128 – 121 UTA
Jan 20 2024-25 UTA at NOP UTA 119 – 123 NOP