Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Boston Celtics BOS

8–2

2026-27 record

1634

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

115.4

Offensive rating

last 10 games

107.5

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

97.1

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded BOS game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 274 of 395 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of BOS's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. BOS ranks 5 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 8:00 PM ET

BOS Boston Celtics 8–2 –

@PHI Philadelphia 76ers 9–2 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 7:00 PM ET

BOS Boston Celtics 8–2 –

@TOR Toronto Raptors 5–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked BOS games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

11.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.4 to 16.7

+4.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.3 to 11.7

15.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

80%

winner picked

10 games involving BOS

8 / 6.7

actual / expected wins

gap +1.3

0.126

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BOS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at MIL	75%	120–111	W 117–97	✓correct	+11
Nov 6	at CHA	70%	111–104	W 119–80	✓correct	+32
Nov 4	vs MIL	73%	118–110	W 109–102	✓correct	−1
Nov 2	at HOU	47%	109–110	L 93–109	✓correct	−15
Nov 1	at ORL	72%	113–105	W 108–97	✓correct	+3
Oct 30	vs CHI	80%	122–110	W 125–111	✓correct	+2
Oct 27	vs BKN	84%	120–106	W 125–124	✓correct	−13
Oct 26	vs CHI	80%	122–110	W 134–99	✓correct	+23
Oct 23	vs NYK	38%	108–112	W 107–103	✗missed	+8
Oct 20	at DET	50%	108–107	L 113–121	✗missed	−9

2025-26

11.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.5 to 13.3; 20th smallest of 30

+1.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.8 to 4.4

14.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

65%

winner picked

89 games involving BOS

59 / 57.0

actual / expected wins

gap +2.0

0.218

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 89 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BOS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 2 PO	vs PHI	64%	105–100	L 100–109	✗missed	−14
Apr 30 PO	at PHI	60%	113–109	L 93–106	✗missed	−17
Apr 28 PO	vs PHI	69%	110–103	L 97–113	✗missed	−23
Apr 26 PO	at PHI	68%	109–102	W 128–96	✓correct	+25
Apr 24 PO	at PHI	60%	107–103	W 108–100	✓correct	+4
Apr 21 PO	vs PHI	82%	115–102	L 97–111	✗missed	−27
Apr 19 PO	vs PHI	83%	118–104	W 123–91	✓correct	+18
Apr 12	vs ORL	64%	115–110	W 113–108	✓correct	±0
Apr 10	vs NOP	85%	120–105	W 144–118	✓correct	+11
Apr 9	at NYK	47%	109–110	L 106–112	✓correct	−5
Apr 7	vs CHA	36%	107–112	W 113–102	✗missed	+16
Apr 5	vs TOR	69%	119–112	W 115–101	✓correct	+7
Apr 3	at MIL	83%	119–105	W 133–101	✓correct	+18
Apr 1	at MIA	61%	115–111	W 147–129	✓correct	+14
Mar 30	at ATL	53%	112–111	L 102–112	✗missed	−11
Mar 29	at CHA	44%	108–110	W 114–99	✗missed	+17
Mar 27	vs ATL	53%	114–113	W 109–102	✓correct	+6
Mar 25	vs OKC	39%	109–113	W 119–109	✗missed	+14
Mar 22	vs MIN	71%	118–110	L 92–102	✗missed	−18
Mar 20	at MEM	76%	118–108	W 117–112	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	vs GSW	76%	117–107	W 120–99	✓correct	+11
Mar 16	vs PHX	64%	112–107	W 120–112	✓correct	+3
Mar 14	vs WAS	80%	117–105	W 111–100	✓correct	−1
Mar 12	at OKC	34%	104–110	L 102–104	✓correct	+4
Mar 10	at SAS	47%	109–110	L 116–125	✓correct	−8
Mar 8	at CLE	56%	110–108	W 109–98	✓correct	+9
Mar 6	vs DAL	80%	117–105	W 120–100	✓correct	+8
Mar 4	vs CHA	44%	109–111	L 89–118	✓correct	−27
Mar 2	at MIL	66%	111–105	W 108–81	✓correct	+21
Mar 1	vs PHI	71%	115–107	W 114–98	✓correct	+8
Feb 27	vs BKN	83%	114–100	W 148–111	✓correct	+23
Feb 25	at DEN	56%	109–107	L 84–103	✗missed	−21
Feb 24	at PHX	64%	107–102	W 97–81	✓correct	+11
Feb 22	at LAL	58%	113–110	W 111–89	✓correct	+19
Feb 19	at GSW	66%	111–105	W 121–110	✓correct	+5
Feb 11	vs CHI	80%	115–103	W 124–105	✓correct	+7
Feb 8	vs NYK	67%	108–102	L 89–111	✗missed	−28
Feb 6	vs MIA	69%	119–112	W 98–96	✓correct	−5
Feb 4	at HOU	31%	105–112	W 114–93	✗missed	+28
Feb 3	at DAL	64%	114–109	W 110–100	✓correct	+5
Feb 1	vs MIL	82%	116–103	W 107–79	✓correct	+15
Jan 30	vs SAC	71%	115–107	W 112–93	✓correct	+11
Jan 28	vs ATL	67%	116–110	L 106–117	✗missed	−17
Jan 26	vs POR	59%	113–110	W 102–94	✓correct	+5
Jan 24	at CHI	66%	113–107	L 111–114	✗missed	−9
Jan 23	at BKN	78%	117–106	W 130–126	✓correct	−7
Jan 21	vs IND	76%	118–108	W 119–104	✓correct	+5
Jan 19	at DET	47%	111–112	L 103–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	at ATL	58%	114–111	W 132–106	✓correct	+23
Jan 15	at MIA	53%	118–117	W 119–114	✓correct	+4
Jan 12	at IND	74%	123–114	L 96–98	✗missed	−11
Jan 10	vs SAS	53%	115–114	L 95–100	✗missed	−6
Jan 9	vs TOR	67%	115–109	W 125–117	✓correct	+2
Jan 7	vs DEN	69%	119–112	L 110–114	✗missed	−11
Jan 5	vs CHI	83%	126–112	W 115–101	✓correct	±0
Jan 3	at LAC	61%	112–108	W 146–115	✓correct	+27
Jan 1	at SAC	71%	118–110	W 120–106	✓correct	+6
Dec 30	at UTA	71%	125–117	W 129–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	at POR	71%	117–109	L 108–114	✗missed	−14
Dec 26	at IND	76%	117–107	W 140–122	✓correct	+8
Dec 22	vs IND	74%	117–108	W 103–95	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	at TOR	44%	109–111	W 112–96	✗missed	+18
Dec 19	vs MIA	71%	118–110	W 129–116	✓correct	+5
Dec 15	vs DET	53%	116–115	L 105–112	✗missed	−8
Dec 11	at MIL	69%	116–109	L 101–116	✗missed	−22
Dec 7	at TOR	56%	111–109	W 121–113	✓correct	+6
Dec 5	vs LAL	64%	119–114	W 126–105	✓correct	+16
Dec 4	at WAS	74%	117–108	W 146–101	✓correct	+36
Dec 2	vs NYK	53%	116–115	W 123–117	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	at CLE	39%	110–114	W 117–115	✗missed	+6
Nov 29	at MIN	41%	113–116	L 115–119	✓correct	−1
Nov 26	vs DET	53%	115–114	W 117–114	✓correct	+2
Nov 23	vs ORL	64%	115–110	W 138–129	✓correct	+4
Nov 21	vs BKN	80%	117–105	L 105–113	✗missed	−20
Nov 18	at BKN	76%	118–108	W 113–99	✓correct	+4
Nov 16	vs LAC	74%	115–106	W 121–118	✓correct	−6
Nov 12	vs MEM	71%	118–110	W 131–95	✓correct	+28
Nov 11	at PHI	56%	115–113	L 100–102	✗missed	−4
Nov 9	at ORL	53%	115–114	W 111–107	✓correct	+3
Nov 7	at ORL	56%	115–113	L 110–123	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	vs WAS	83%	121–107	W 136–107	✓correct	+15
Nov 3	vs UTA	78%	119–108	L 103–105	✗missed	−13
Nov 1	vs HOU	53%	111–110	L 101–128	✗missed	−28
Oct 31	at PHI	74%	118–109	W 109–108	✓correct	−8
Oct 29	vs CLE	47%	113–114	W 125–105	✗missed	+21
Oct 27	at NOP	74%	116–107	W 122–90	✓correct	+23
Oct 26	at DET	56%	110–108	L 113–119	✗missed	−8
Oct 24	at NYK	56%	111–109	L 95–105	✗missed	−12
Oct 22	vs PHI	83%	115–101	L 116–117	✗missed	−15

2024-25

11.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 13.1; 21st smallest of 30

+1.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.5 to 3.7

14.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

75%

winner picked

93 games involving BOS

67 / 63.1

actual / expected wins

gap +3.9

0.187

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 93 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BOS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 16 PO	at NYK	36%	96–101	L 81–119	✓correct	−33
May 14 PO	vs NYK	81%	110–97	W 127–102	✓correct	+12
May 12 PO	at NYK	51%	101–100	L 113–121	✗missed	−9
May 10 PO	at NYK	41%	99–102	W 115–93	✗missed	+25
May 7 PO	vs NYK	69%	107–100	L 90–91	✗missed	−8
May 5 PO	vs NYK	77%	111–100	L 105–108	✗missed	−14
Apr 29 PO	vs ORL	73%	111–102	W 120–89	✓correct	+22
Apr 27 PO	at ORL	43%	100–102	W 107–98	✗missed	+11
Apr 25 PO	at ORL	38%	101–105	L 93–95	✓correct	+2
Apr 23 PO	vs ORL	79%	109–97	W 109–100	✓correct	−3
Apr 20 PO	vs ORL	81%	110–97	W 103–86	✓correct	+4
Apr 13	vs CHA	69%	117–110	W 93–86	✓correct	±0
Apr 11	vs CHA	86%	120–103	W 130–94	✓correct	+19
Apr 9	at ORL	46%	110–111	L 76–96	✓correct	−19
Apr 8	at NYK	66%	112–105	W 119–117	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs WAS	75%	118–108	W 124–90	✓correct	+24
Apr 4	vs PHX	77%	118–107	W 123–103	✓correct	+9
Apr 2	vs MIA	79%	113–101	L 103–124	✗missed	−33
Mar 31	at MEM	64%	116–110	W 117–103	✓correct	+8
Mar 29	at SAS	71%	117–108	W 121–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 26	at PHX	77%	117–105	W 132–102	✓correct	+18
Mar 24	at SAC	73%	119–109	W 113–95	✓correct	+8
Mar 23	at POR	61%	109–104	W 129–116	✓correct	+8
Mar 21	at UTA	80%	121–107	W 121–99	✓correct	+8
Mar 18	vs BKN	81%	121–108	W 104–96	✓correct	−5
Mar 15	at BKN	79%	114–101	W 115–113	✓correct	−11
Mar 14	at MIA	66%	112–105	W 103–91	✓correct	+5
Mar 12	vs OKC	57%	115–113	L 112–118	✗missed	−8
Mar 10	vs UTA	86%	125–108	W 114–108	✓correct	−11
Mar 8	vs LAL	59%	111–108	W 111–101	✓correct	+7
Mar 6	vs PHI	71%	119–111	W 123–105	✓correct	+10
Mar 5	vs POR	73%	120–111	W 128–118	✓correct	+1
Mar 2	vs DEN	57%	114–112	W 110–103	✓correct	+5
Feb 28	vs CLE	46%	111–113	L 116–123	✓correct	−5
Feb 26	at DET	51%	116–115	L 97–117	✗missed	−21
Feb 25	at TOR	77%	116–104	W 111–101	✓correct	−2
Feb 23	vs NYK	62%	115–111	W 118–105	✓correct	+9
Feb 20	at PHI	69%	116–108	W 124–104	✓correct	+12
Feb 12	vs SAS	79%	122–110	W 116–103	✓correct	+1
Feb 10	at MIA	71%	113–104	W 103–85	✓correct	+9
Feb 8	at NYK	56%	113–110	W 131–104	✓correct	+24
Feb 6	vs DAL	69%	117–110	L 120–127	✗missed	−14
Feb 4	at CLE	41%	111–114	W 112–105	✗missed	+10
Feb 2	at PHI	69%	115–107	W 118–110	✓correct	±0
Jan 31	at NOP	59%	116–112	W 118–116	✓correct	−2
Jan 29	vs CHI	81%	118–105	W 122–100	✓correct	+9
Jan 27	vs HOU	59%	113–110	L 112–114	✗missed	−5
Jan 25	at DAL	56%	107–104	W 122–107	✓correct	+12
Jan 23	at LAL	56%	111–108	L 96–117	✗missed	−24
Jan 22	at LAC	69%	110–102	W 117–113	✓correct	−4
Jan 20	at GSW	66%	110–103	W 125–85	✓correct	+33
Jan 18	vs ATL	73%	118–109	L 115–119	✗missed	−13
Jan 17	vs ORL	75%	111–101	W 121–94	✓correct	+17
Jan 15	at TOR	82%	118–103	L 97–110	✗missed	−28
Jan 12	vs NOP	82%	120–106	W 120–119	✓correct	−13
Jan 10	vs SAC	71%	115–107	L 97–114	✗missed	−25
Jan 7	at DEN	61%	113–108	W 118–106	✓correct	+7
Jan 5	at OKC	41%	108–111	L 92–105	✓correct	−10
Jan 3	at HOU	59%	111–107	W 109–86	✓correct	+19
Jan 2	at MIN	59%	110–106	W 118–115	✓correct	−1
Dec 31	vs TOR	85%	126–110	W 125–71	✓correct	+38
Dec 29	vs IND	67%	119–113	L 114–123	✗missed	−15
Dec 27	vs IND	77%	121–110	W 142–105	✓correct	+26
Dec 25	vs PHI	79%	118–106	L 114–118	✗missed	−16
Dec 23	at ORL	71%	111–102	L 104–108	✗missed	−13
Dec 21	at CHI	56%	121–118	W 123–98	✓correct	+22
Dec 19	vs CHI	69%	122–115	L 108–117	✗missed	−16
Dec 15	at WAS	82%	123–108	W 112–98	✓correct	−1
Dec 12	vs DET	77%	119–108	W 123–99	✓correct	+13
Dec 7	vs MEM	77%	121–110	L 121–127	✗missed	−17
Dec 6	vs MIL	71%	117–109	W 111–105	✓correct	−2
Dec 4	vs DET	81%	119–106	W 130–120	✓correct	−3
Dec 2	vs MIA	69%	115–108	W 108–89	✓correct	+12
Dec 1	at CLE	43%	110–112	L 111–115	✓correct	−2
Nov 29	at CHI	71%	123–114	W 138–129	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs LAC	69%	116–109	W 126–94	✓correct	+25
Nov 24	vs MIN	69%	115–108	W 107–105	✓correct	−5
Nov 22	at WAS	71%	122–113	W 108–96	✓correct	+3
Nov 19	vs CLE	57%	114–112	W 120–117	✓correct	+1
Nov 16	vs TOR	91%	127–106	W 126–123	✓correct	−18
Nov 13	at BKN	61%	110–105	W 139–114	✓correct	+20
Nov 12	vs ATL	86%	127–110	L 116–117	✗missed	−18
Nov 10	at MIL	69%	116–108	W 113–107	✓correct	−2
Nov 8	vs BKN	79%	118–106	W 108–104	✓correct	−8
Nov 6	vs GSW	62%	115–111	L 112–118	✗missed	−10
Nov 4	at ATL	66%	118–111	W 123–93	✓correct	+23
Nov 2	at CHA	69%	114–106	W 113–103	✓correct	+2
Nov 1	at CHA	64%	115–109	W 124–109	✓correct	+9
Oct 30	at IND	64%	112–106	L 132–135	✗missed	−9
Oct 28	vs MIL	73%	119–110	W 119–108	✓correct	+2
Oct 26	at DET	75%	114–103	W 124–118	✓correct	−5
Oct 24	at WAS	69%	116–108	W 122–102	✓correct	+12
Oct 22	vs NYK	81%	119–106	W 132–109	✓correct	+10

2023-24

Across 101 graded games, BOS finished an average of 7.0 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +4.6 to +9.5).

12.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.3 to 14.6; 28th smallest of 30

+7.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 4.6 to 9.5

15.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

71%

winner picked

101 games involving BOS

80 / 57.9

actual / expected wins

gap +22.1

0.203

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 101 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BOS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Jun 17 PO	vs DAL	53%	109–110	W 106–88	✗missed	+19
Jun 14 PO	at DAL	49%	107–105	L 84–122	✗missed	−40
Jun 12 PO	at DAL	47%	106–105	W 106–99	✓correct	+6
Jun 9 PO	vs DAL	59%	108–106	W 105–98	✓correct	+5
Jun 6 PO	vs DAL	67%	111–105	W 107–89	✓correct	+12
May 27 PO	at IND	47%	110–109	W 105–102	✓correct	+2
May 25 PO	at IND	47%	109–108	W 114–111	✓correct	+2
May 23 PO	vs IND	57%	109–108	W 126–110	✓correct	+15
May 21 PO	vs IND	61%	111–108	W 133–128	✓correct	+2
May 15 PO	vs CLE	65%	109–104	W 113–98	✓correct	+10
May 13 PO	at CLE	43%	104–105	W 109–102	✗missed	+8
May 11 PO	at CLE	43%	105–106	W 106–93	✗missed	+14
May 9 PO	vs CLE	63%	109–105	L 94–118	✗missed	−28
May 7 PO	vs CLE	70%	113–105	W 120–95	✓correct	+17
May 1 PO	vs MIA	67%	109–103	W 118–84	✓correct	+28
Apr 29 PO	at MIA	47%	104–103	W 102–88	✓correct	+13
Apr 27 PO	at MIA	49%	106–104	W 104–84	✓correct	+18
Apr 24 PO	vs MIA	70%	110–102	L 101–111	✗missed	−18
Apr 21 PO	vs MIA	75%	114–103	W 114–94	✓correct	+9
Apr 14	vs WAS	73%	118–108	W 132–122	✓correct	±0
Apr 12	vs CHA	68%	112–105	W 131–98	✓correct	+26
Apr 11	vs NYK	49%	106–109	L 109–118	✓correct	−6
Apr 9	at MIL	47%	108–107	L 91–104	✗missed	−14
Apr 7	vs POR	76%	112–100	W 124–107	✓correct	+5
Apr 5	vs SAC	53%	108–109	W 101–100	✗missed	+2
Apr 3	vs OKC	73%	114–104	W 135–100	✓correct	+25
Apr 1	at CHA	61%	114–106	W 118–104	✓correct	+6
Mar 30	at NOP	57%	108–102	W 104–92	✓correct	+6
Mar 28	at ATL	65%	116–106	L 122–123	✗missed	−11
Mar 25	at ATL	53%	110–106	L 118–120	✗missed	−6
Mar 23	at CHI	47%	115–114	W 124–113	✓correct	+10
Mar 22	at DET	57%	112–106	W 129–102	✓correct	+21
Mar 20	vs MIL	70%	114–106	W 122–119	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	vs DET	76%	118–106	W 119–94	✓correct	+13
Mar 17	at WAS	65%	118–108	W 130–104	✓correct	+16
Mar 14	vs PHX	63%	112–108	W 127–112	✓correct	+11
Mar 12	at UTA	51%	120–117	W 123–107	✓correct	+13
Mar 11	at POR	55%	110–105	W 121–99	✓correct	+17
Mar 9	at PHX	51%	112–109	W 117–107	✓correct	+7
Mar 7	at DEN	51%	110–107	L 109–115	✗missed	−9
Mar 5	at CLE	49%	108–106	L 104–105	✗missed	−3
Mar 3	vs GSW	70%	118–110	W 140–88	✓correct	+44
Mar 1	vs DAL	65%	117–112	W 138–110	✓correct	+23
Feb 27	vs PHI	61%	115–112	W 117–99	✓correct	+15
Feb 24	at NYK	49%	112–110	W 116–102	✓correct	+12
Feb 22	at CHI	51%	119–116	W 129–112	✓correct	+14
Feb 14	vs BKN	67%	119–113	W 136–86	✓correct	+44
Feb 13	at BKN	57%	118–112	W 118–110	✓correct	+2
Feb 11	at MIA	49%	115–113	W 110–106	✓correct	+2
Feb 9	vs WAS	83%	126–109	W 133–129	✓correct	−13
Feb 7	vs ATL	63%	119–115	W 125–117	✓correct	+4
Feb 4	vs MEM	70%	114–106	W 131–91	✓correct	+32
Feb 1	vs LAL	76%	126–114	L 105–114	✗missed	−21
Jan 30	vs IND	65%	119–114	W 129–124	✓correct	±0
Jan 29	vs NOP	59%	116–114	W 118–112	✓correct	+4
Jan 27	vs LAC	57%	111–110	L 96–115	✗missed	−20
Jan 25	at MIA	53%	110–106	W 143–110	✓correct	+29
Jan 22	at DAL	43%	119–120	W 119–110	✗missed	+10
Jan 21	at HOU	53%	115–111	W 116–107	✓correct	+5
Jan 19	vs DEN	57%	114–113	L 100–102	✗missed	−3
Jan 17	vs SAS	78%	124–111	W 117–98	✓correct	+6
Jan 15	at TOR	51%	123–120	W 105–96	✓correct	+6
Jan 13	vs HOU	70%	121–113	W 145–113	✓correct	+24
Jan 11	at MIL	51%	120–117	L 102–135	✗missed	−36
Jan 10	vs MIN	61%	115–112	W 127–120	✓correct	+4
Jan 8	at IND	47%	119–118	L 131–133	✗missed	−3
Jan 6	at IND	43%	117–118	W 118–101	✗missed	+18
Jan 5	vs UTA	65%	118–113	W 126–97	✓correct	+24
Jan 2	at OKC	51%	116–113	L 123–127	✗missed	−7
Dec 31	at SAS	57%	119–113	W 134–101	✓correct	+27
Dec 29	vs TOR	61%	116–113	W 120–118	✓correct	−1
Dec 28	vs DET	79%	124–110	W 128–122	✓correct	−8
Dec 25	at LAL	55%	116–111	W 126–115	✓correct	+6
Dec 23	at LAC	47%	115–114	W 145–108	✓correct	+36
Dec 20	at SAC	37%	114–118	W 144–119	✗missed	+29
Dec 19	at GSW	47%	117–116	L 126–132	✗missed	−7
Dec 17	vs ORL	61%	118–115	W 114–97	✓correct	+14
Dec 15	vs ORL	59%	116–114	W 128–111	✓correct	+15
Dec 14	vs CLE	63%	117–113	W 116–107	✓correct	+5
Dec 12	vs CLE	68%	119–112	W 120–113	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	vs NYK	67%	117–111	W 133–123	✓correct	+4
Dec 4	at IND	47%	121–120	L 112–122	✗missed	−11
Dec 1	vs PHI	53%	110–111	W 125–119	✗missed	+7
Nov 28	vs CHI	59%	109–107	W 124–97	✓correct	+25
Nov 26	vs ATL	61%	115–112	W 113–103	✓correct	+7
Nov 24	at ORL	43%	111–112	L 96–113	✓correct	−16
Nov 22	vs MIL	59%	114–112	W 119–116	✓correct	+1
Nov 20	at CHA	53%	117–113	L 118–121	✗missed	−7
Nov 19	at MEM	51%	114–111	W 102–100	✓correct	−1
Nov 17	at TOR	55%	111–106	W 108–105	✓correct	−2
Nov 15	at PHI	41%	111–113	W 117–107	✗missed	+12
Nov 13	vs NYK	53%	110–111	W 114–98	✗missed	+17
Nov 11	vs TOR	61%	114–111	W 117–94	✓correct	+20
Nov 10	vs BKN	68%	114–107	W 121–107	✓correct	+7
Nov 8	at PHI	35%	107–112	L 103–106	✓correct	+2
Nov 6	at MIN	37%	106–110	L 109–114	✓correct	−1
Nov 4	at BKN	41%	108–110	W 124–114	✗missed	+12
Nov 1	vs IND	67%	118–112	W 155–104	✓correct	+45
Oct 30	at WAS	49%	116–114	W 126–107	✓correct	+17
Oct 27	vs MIA	61%	108–105	W 119–111	✓correct	+5
Oct 25	at NYK	35%	106–111	W 108–104	✗missed	+9

2022-23

11.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.0 to 13.1; 27th smallest of 30

+1.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.6 to 4.2

14.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

65%

winner picked

102 games involving BOS

68 / 61.4

actual / expected wins

gap +6.6

0.237

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 102 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BOS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 29 PO	vs MIA	63%	111–106	L 84–103	✗missed	−24
May 27 PO	at MIA	45%	102–104	W 104–103	✗missed	+3
May 25 PO	vs MIA	70%	112–104	W 110–97	✓correct	+5
May 23 PO	at MIA	40%	104–108	W 116–99	✗missed	+21
May 21 PO	at MIA	35%	100–106	L 102–128	✓correct	−20
May 19 PO	vs MIA	74%	114–104	L 105–111	✗missed	−16
May 17 PO	vs MIA	78%	113–101	L 116–123	✗missed	−19
May 14 PO	vs PHI	72%	113–104	W 112–88	✓correct	+15
May 11 PO	at PHI	30%	101–109	W 95–86	✗missed	+17
May 9 PO	vs PHI	78%	112–100	L 103–115	✗missed	−24
May 7 PO	at PHI	40%	102–106	L 115–116	✓correct	+3
May 5 PO	at PHI	40%	103–107	W 114–102	✗missed	+16
May 3 PO	vs PHI	70%	107–99	W 121–87	✓correct	+26
May 1 PO	vs PHI	72%	108–99	L 115–119	✗missed	−13
Apr 27 PO	at ATL	47%	112–113	W 128–120	✗missed	+9
Apr 25 PO	vs ATL	76%	118–107	L 117–119	✗missed	−13
Apr 23 PO	at ATL	53%	113–112	W 129–121	✓correct	+7
Apr 21 PO	at ATL	55%	115–113	L 122–130	✗missed	−10
Apr 18 PO	vs ATL	72%	120–111	W 119–106	✓correct	+4
Apr 15 PO	vs ATL	68%	120–113	W 112–99	✓correct	+6
Apr 9	vs ATL	63%	124–119	W 120–114	✓correct	+1
Apr 7	vs TOR	63%	118–113	W 121–102	✓correct	+14
Apr 5	vs TOR	47%	115–116	W 97–93	✗missed	+5
Apr 4	at PHI	35%	108–114	L 101–103	✓correct	+4
Mar 31	vs UTA	65%	119–113	W 122–114	✓correct	+2
Mar 30	at MIL	37%	116–121	W 140–99	✗missed	+46
Mar 28	at WAS	70%	121–113	L 111–130	✗missed	−27
Mar 26	vs SAS	87%	122–104	W 137–93	✓correct	+26
Mar 24	vs IND	78%	124–112	W 120–95	✓correct	+13
Mar 21	at SAC	63%	116–111	W 132–109	✓correct	+18
Mar 18	at UTA	60%	115–111	L 117–118	✗missed	−5
Mar 17	at POR	68%	119–112	W 126–112	✓correct	+7
Mar 15	at MIN	65%	117–111	W 104–102	✓correct	−4
Mar 13	at HOU	70%	120–112	L 109–111	✗missed	−10
Mar 11	at ATL	58%	119–116	W 134–125	✓correct	+6
Mar 8	vs POR	76%	121–110	W 115–93	✓correct	+11
Mar 6	at CLE	22%	103–115	L 114–118	✓correct	+8
Mar 5	vs NYK	72%	118–109	L 129–131	✗missed	−11
Mar 3	vs BKN	70%	119–111	L 105–115	✗missed	−18
Mar 1	vs CLE	60%	113–109	W 117–113	✓correct	±0
Feb 27	at NYK	37%	104–109	L 94–109	✓correct	−10
Feb 25	at PHI	42%	107–110	W 110–107	✗missed	+6
Feb 23	at IND	65%	119–113	W 142–138	✓correct	−2
Feb 15	vs DET	68%	115–108	W 127–109	✓correct	+11
Feb 14	at MIL	28%	111–120	L 125–131	✓correct	+3
Feb 12	vs MEM	45%	109–111	W 119–109	✗missed	+12
Feb 10	vs CHA	68%	113–106	W 127–116	✓correct	+4
Feb 8	vs PHI	72%	118–109	W 106–99	✓correct	−2
Feb 6	at DET	68%	119–112	W 111–99	✓correct	+5
Feb 3	vs PHX	65%	116–110	L 94–106	✗missed	−18
Feb 1	vs BKN	68%	115–108	W 139–96	✓correct	+36
Jan 28	vs LAL	72%	117–108	W 125–121	✓correct	−5
Jan 26	vs NYK	74%	119–109	L 117–120	✗missed	−13
Jan 24	at MIA	37%	107–112	L 95–98	✓correct	+2
Jan 23	at ORL	55%	115–113	L 98–113	✗missed	−17
Jan 21	at TOR	53%	113–112	W 106–104	✓correct	+1
Jan 19	vs GSW	60%	119–115	W 121–118	✓correct	−1
Jan 16	at CHA	58%	117–114	W 130–118	✓correct	+9
Jan 14	at CHA	60%	116–112	W 122–106	✓correct	+12
Jan 12	at BKN	28%	110–119	W 109–98	✗missed	+20
Jan 11	vs NOP	78%	119–107	W 125–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 9	vs CHI	78%	123–111	W 107–99	✓correct	−4
Jan 7	at SAS	78%	125–113	W 121–116	✓correct	−7
Jan 5	at DAL	47%	113–114	W 124–95	✗missed	+30
Jan 3	at OKC	72%	119–110	L 117–150	✗missed	−42
Jan 1	at DEN	45%	113–115	L 111–123	✓correct	−10
Dec 29	vs LAC	63%	117–112	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 27	vs HOU	70%	117–109	W 126–102	✓correct	+16
Dec 25	vs MIL	60%	114–110	W 139–118	✓correct	+17
Dec 23	vs MIN	60%	115–111	W 121–109	✓correct	+8
Dec 21	vs IND	65%	118–112	L 112–117	✗missed	−11
Dec 18	vs ORL	70%	116–108	L 92–95	✗missed	−11
Dec 16	vs ORL	76%	120–109	L 109–117	✗missed	−19
Dec 13	at LAL	53%	118–117	W 122–118	✓correct	+3
Dec 12	at LAC	70%	117–109	L 93–113	✗missed	−28
Dec 10	at GSW	47%	115–116	L 107–123	✓correct	−15
Dec 7	at PHX	53%	114–113	W 125–98	✓correct	+26
Dec 5	at TOR	65%	115–109	W 116–110	✓correct	±0
Dec 4	at BKN	53%	114–113	W 103–92	✓correct	+10
Dec 2	vs MIA	47%	112–113	L 116–120	✓correct	−3
Nov 30	vs MIA	63%	113–108	W 134–121	✓correct	+8
Nov 28	vs CHA	68%	115–108	W 140–105	✓correct	+28
Nov 27	vs WAS	72%	118–109	W 130–121	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs SAC	65%	120–114	W 122–104	✓correct	+12
Nov 23	vs DAL	60%	115–111	W 125–112	✓correct	+9
Nov 21	at CHI	72%	120–111	L 107–121	✗missed	−23
Nov 18	at NOP	47%	113–114	W 117–109	✗missed	+9
Nov 16	at ATL	40%	109–113	W 126–101	✗missed	+29
Nov 14	vs OKC	76%	120–109	W 126–122	✓correct	−7
Nov 12	at DET	55%	111–109	W 117–108	✓correct	+7
Nov 11	vs DEN	60%	116–112	W 131–112	✓correct	+15
Nov 9	vs DET	78%	119–107	W 128–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	at MEM	58%	113–110	W 109–106	✓correct	±0
Nov 5	at NYK	70%	113–105	W 133–118	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	vs CHI	58%	111–108	W 123–119	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	at CLE	47%	109–110	L 113–114	✓correct	±0
Oct 30	vs WAS	70%	114–106	W 112–94	✓correct	+10
Oct 28	vs CLE	53%	109–108	L 123–132	✗missed	−10
Oct 24	at CHI	72%	110–101	L 102–120	✗missed	−27
Oct 22	at ORL	65%	107–101	W 126–120	✓correct	±0
Oct 21	at MIA	55%	103–101	W 111–104	✓correct	+5
Oct 18	vs PHI	53%	106–105	W 126–117	✓correct	+8

2022-23 to 2026-27

12.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.2 to 12.7; 30th smallest of 30

+3.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 1.8 to 4.3

14.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

69%

winner picked

395 games involving BOS

282 / 246.0

actual / expected wins

gap +36.0

0.209

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 395 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BOS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at MIL	75%	120–111	W 117–97	✓correct	+11
Nov 6	at CHA	70%	111–104	W 119–80	✓correct	+32
Nov 4	vs MIL	73%	118–110	W 109–102	✓correct	−1
Nov 2	at HOU	47%	109–110	L 93–109	✓correct	−15
Nov 1	at ORL	72%	113–105	W 108–97	✓correct	+3
Oct 30	vs CHI	80%	122–110	W 125–111	✓correct	+2
Oct 27	vs BKN	84%	120–106	W 125–124	✓correct	−13
Oct 26	vs CHI	80%	122–110	W 134–99	✓correct	+23
Oct 23	vs NYK	38%	108–112	W 107–103	✗missed	+8
Oct 20	at DET	50%	108–107	L 113–121	✗missed	−9
May 2 PO	vs PHI	64%	105–100	L 100–109	✗missed	−14
Apr 30 PO	at PHI	60%	113–109	L 93–106	✗missed	−17
Apr 28 PO	vs PHI	69%	110–103	L 97–113	✗missed	−23
Apr 26 PO	at PHI	68%	109–102	W 128–96	✓correct	+25
Apr 24 PO	at PHI	60%	107–103	W 108–100	✓correct	+4
Apr 21 PO	vs PHI	82%	115–102	L 97–111	✗missed	−27
Apr 19 PO	vs PHI	83%	118–104	W 123–91	✓correct	+18
Apr 12	vs ORL	64%	115–110	W 113–108	✓correct	±0
Apr 10	vs NOP	85%	120–105	W 144–118	✓correct	+11
Apr 9	at NYK	47%	109–110	L 106–112	✓correct	−5
Apr 7	vs CHA	36%	107–112	W 113–102	✗missed	+16
Apr 5	vs TOR	69%	119–112	W 115–101	✓correct	+7
Apr 3	at MIL	83%	119–105	W 133–101	✓correct	+18
Apr 1	at MIA	61%	115–111	W 147–129	✓correct	+14
Mar 30	at ATL	53%	112–111	L 102–112	✗missed	−11
Mar 29	at CHA	44%	108–110	W 114–99	✗missed	+17
Mar 27	vs ATL	53%	114–113	W 109–102	✓correct	+6
Mar 25	vs OKC	39%	109–113	W 119–109	✗missed	+14
Mar 22	vs MIN	71%	118–110	L 92–102	✗missed	−18
Mar 20	at MEM	76%	118–108	W 117–112	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	vs GSW	76%	117–107	W 120–99	✓correct	+11
Mar 16	vs PHX	64%	112–107	W 120–112	✓correct	+3
Mar 14	vs WAS	80%	117–105	W 111–100	✓correct	−1
Mar 12	at OKC	34%	104–110	L 102–104	✓correct	+4
Mar 10	at SAS	47%	109–110	L 116–125	✓correct	−8
Mar 8	at CLE	56%	110–108	W 109–98	✓correct	+9
Mar 6	vs DAL	80%	117–105	W 120–100	✓correct	+8
Mar 4	vs CHA	44%	109–111	L 89–118	✓correct	−27
Mar 2	at MIL	66%	111–105	W 108–81	✓correct	+21
Mar 1	vs PHI	71%	115–107	W 114–98	✓correct	+8
Feb 27	vs BKN	83%	114–100	W 148–111	✓correct	+23
Feb 25	at DEN	56%	109–107	L 84–103	✗missed	−21
Feb 24	at PHX	64%	107–102	W 97–81	✓correct	+11
Feb 22	at LAL	58%	113–110	W 111–89	✓correct	+19
Feb 19	at GSW	66%	111–105	W 121–110	✓correct	+5
Feb 11	vs CHI	80%	115–103	W 124–105	✓correct	+7
Feb 8	vs NYK	67%	108–102	L 89–111	✗missed	−28
Feb 6	vs MIA	69%	119–112	W 98–96	✓correct	−5
Feb 4	at HOU	31%	105–112	W 114–93	✗missed	+28
Feb 3	at DAL	64%	114–109	W 110–100	✓correct	+5
Feb 1	vs MIL	82%	116–103	W 107–79	✓correct	+15
Jan 30	vs SAC	71%	115–107	W 112–93	✓correct	+11
Jan 28	vs ATL	67%	116–110	L 106–117	✗missed	−17
Jan 26	vs POR	59%	113–110	W 102–94	✓correct	+5
Jan 24	at CHI	66%	113–107	L 111–114	✗missed	−9
Jan 23	at BKN	78%	117–106	W 130–126	✓correct	−7
Jan 21	vs IND	76%	118–108	W 119–104	✓correct	+5
Jan 19	at DET	47%	111–112	L 103–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	at ATL	58%	114–111	W 132–106	✓correct	+23
Jan 15	at MIA	53%	118–117	W 119–114	✓correct	+4
Jan 12	at IND	74%	123–114	L 96–98	✗missed	−11
Jan 10	vs SAS	53%	115–114	L 95–100	✗missed	−6
Jan 9	vs TOR	67%	115–109	W 125–117	✓correct	+2
Jan 7	vs DEN	69%	119–112	L 110–114	✗missed	−11
Jan 5	vs CHI	83%	126–112	W 115–101	✓correct	±0
Jan 3	at LAC	61%	112–108	W 146–115	✓correct	+27
Jan 1	at SAC	71%	118–110	W 120–106	✓correct	+6
Dec 30	at UTA	71%	125–117	W 129–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	at POR	71%	117–109	L 108–114	✗missed	−14
Dec 26	at IND	76%	117–107	W 140–122	✓correct	+8
Dec 22	vs IND	74%	117–108	W 103–95	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	at TOR	44%	109–111	W 112–96	✗missed	+18
Dec 19	vs MIA	71%	118–110	W 129–116	✓correct	+5
Dec 15	vs DET	53%	116–115	L 105–112	✗missed	−8
Dec 11	at MIL	69%	116–109	L 101–116	✗missed	−22
Dec 7	at TOR	56%	111–109	W 121–113	✓correct	+6
Dec 5	vs LAL	64%	119–114	W 126–105	✓correct	+16
Dec 4	at WAS	74%	117–108	W 146–101	✓correct	+36
Dec 2	vs NYK	53%	116–115	W 123–117	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	at CLE	39%	110–114	W 117–115	✗missed	+6
Nov 29	at MIN	41%	113–116	L 115–119	✓correct	−1
Nov 26	vs DET	53%	115–114	W 117–114	✓correct	+2
Nov 23	vs ORL	64%	115–110	W 138–129	✓correct	+4
Nov 21	vs BKN	80%	117–105	L 105–113	✗missed	−20
Nov 18	at BKN	76%	118–108	W 113–99	✓correct	+4
Nov 16	vs LAC	74%	115–106	W 121–118	✓correct	−6
Nov 12	vs MEM	71%	118–110	W 131–95	✓correct	+28
Nov 11	at PHI	56%	115–113	L 100–102	✗missed	−4
Nov 9	at ORL	53%	115–114	W 111–107	✓correct	+3
Nov 7	at ORL	56%	115–113	L 110–123	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	vs WAS	83%	121–107	W 136–107	✓correct	+15
Nov 3	vs UTA	78%	119–108	L 103–105	✗missed	−13
Nov 1	vs HOU	53%	111–110	L 101–128	✗missed	−28
Oct 31	at PHI	74%	118–109	W 109–108	✓correct	−8
Oct 29	vs CLE	47%	113–114	W 125–105	✗missed	+21
Oct 27	at NOP	74%	116–107	W 122–90	✓correct	+23
Oct 26	at DET	56%	110–108	L 113–119	✗missed	−8
Oct 24	at NYK	56%	111–109	L 95–105	✗missed	−12
Oct 22	vs PHI	83%	115–101	L 116–117	✗missed	−15
May 16 PO	at NYK	36%	96–101	L 81–119	✓correct	−33
May 14 PO	vs NYK	81%	110–97	W 127–102	✓correct	+12
May 12 PO	at NYK	51%	101–100	L 113–121	✗missed	−9
May 10 PO	at NYK	41%	99–102	W 115–93	✗missed	+25
May 7 PO	vs NYK	69%	107–100	L 90–91	✗missed	−8
May 5 PO	vs NYK	77%	111–100	L 105–108	✗missed	−14
Apr 29 PO	vs ORL	73%	111–102	W 120–89	✓correct	+22
Apr 27 PO	at ORL	43%	100–102	W 107–98	✗missed	+11
Apr 25 PO	at ORL	38%	101–105	L 93–95	✓correct	+2
Apr 23 PO	vs ORL	79%	109–97	W 109–100	✓correct	−3
Apr 20 PO	vs ORL	81%	110–97	W 103–86	✓correct	+4
Apr 13	vs CHA	69%	117–110	W 93–86	✓correct	±0
Apr 11	vs CHA	86%	120–103	W 130–94	✓correct	+19
Apr 9	at ORL	46%	110–111	L 76–96	✓correct	−19
Apr 8	at NYK	66%	112–105	W 119–117	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs WAS	75%	118–108	W 124–90	✓correct	+24
Apr 4	vs PHX	77%	118–107	W 123–103	✓correct	+9
Apr 2	vs MIA	79%	113–101	L 103–124	✗missed	−33
Mar 31	at MEM	64%	116–110	W 117–103	✓correct	+8
Mar 29	at SAS	71%	117–108	W 121–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 26	at PHX	77%	117–105	W 132–102	✓correct	+18
Mar 24	at SAC	73%	119–109	W 113–95	✓correct	+8
Mar 23	at POR	61%	109–104	W 129–116	✓correct	+8
Mar 21	at UTA	80%	121–107	W 121–99	✓correct	+8
Mar 18	vs BKN	81%	121–108	W 104–96	✓correct	−5
Mar 15	at BKN	79%	114–101	W 115–113	✓correct	−11
Mar 14	at MIA	66%	112–105	W 103–91	✓correct	+5
Mar 12	vs OKC	57%	115–113	L 112–118	✗missed	−8
Mar 10	vs UTA	86%	125–108	W 114–108	✓correct	−11
Mar 8	vs LAL	59%	111–108	W 111–101	✓correct	+7
Mar 6	vs PHI	71%	119–111	W 123–105	✓correct	+10
Mar 5	vs POR	73%	120–111	W 128–118	✓correct	+1
Mar 2	vs DEN	57%	114–112	W 110–103	✓correct	+5
Feb 28	vs CLE	46%	111–113	L 116–123	✓correct	−5
Feb 26	at DET	51%	116–115	L 97–117	✗missed	−21
Feb 25	at TOR	77%	116–104	W 111–101	✓correct	−2
Feb 23	vs NYK	62%	115–111	W 118–105	✓correct	+9
Feb 20	at PHI	69%	116–108	W 124–104	✓correct	+12
Feb 12	vs SAS	79%	122–110	W 116–103	✓correct	+1
Feb 10	at MIA	71%	113–104	W 103–85	✓correct	+9
Feb 8	at NYK	56%	113–110	W 131–104	✓correct	+24
Feb 6	vs DAL	69%	117–110	L 120–127	✗missed	−14
Feb 4	at CLE	41%	111–114	W 112–105	✗missed	+10
Feb 2	at PHI	69%	115–107	W 118–110	✓correct	±0
Jan 31	at NOP	59%	116–112	W 118–116	✓correct	−2
Jan 29	vs CHI	81%	118–105	W 122–100	✓correct	+9
Jan 27	vs HOU	59%	113–110	L 112–114	✗missed	−5
Jan 25	at DAL	56%	107–104	W 122–107	✓correct	+12
Jan 23	at LAL	56%	111–108	L 96–117	✗missed	−24
Jan 22	at LAC	69%	110–102	W 117–113	✓correct	−4
Jan 20	at GSW	66%	110–103	W 125–85	✓correct	+33
Jan 18	vs ATL	73%	118–109	L 115–119	✗missed	−13
Jan 17	vs ORL	75%	111–101	W 121–94	✓correct	+17
Jan 15	at TOR	82%	118–103	L 97–110	✗missed	−28
Jan 12	vs NOP	82%	120–106	W 120–119	✓correct	−13
Jan 10	vs SAC	71%	115–107	L 97–114	✗missed	−25
Jan 7	at DEN	61%	113–108	W 118–106	✓correct	+7
Jan 5	at OKC	41%	108–111	L 92–105	✓correct	−10
Jan 3	at HOU	59%	111–107	W 109–86	✓correct	+19
Jan 2	at MIN	59%	110–106	W 118–115	✓correct	−1
Dec 31	vs TOR	85%	126–110	W 125–71	✓correct	+38
Dec 29	vs IND	67%	119–113	L 114–123	✗missed	−15
Dec 27	vs IND	77%	121–110	W 142–105	✓correct	+26
Dec 25	vs PHI	79%	118–106	L 114–118	✗missed	−16
Dec 23	at ORL	71%	111–102	L 104–108	✗missed	−13
Dec 21	at CHI	56%	121–118	W 123–98	✓correct	+22
Dec 19	vs CHI	69%	122–115	L 108–117	✗missed	−16
Dec 15	at WAS	82%	123–108	W 112–98	✓correct	−1
Dec 12	vs DET	77%	119–108	W 123–99	✓correct	+13
Dec 7	vs MEM	77%	121–110	L 121–127	✗missed	−17
Dec 6	vs MIL	71%	117–109	W 111–105	✓correct	−2
Dec 4	vs DET	81%	119–106	W 130–120	✓correct	−3
Dec 2	vs MIA	69%	115–108	W 108–89	✓correct	+12
Dec 1	at CLE	43%	110–112	L 111–115	✓correct	−2
Nov 29	at CHI	71%	123–114	W 138–129	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs LAC	69%	116–109	W 126–94	✓correct	+25
Nov 24	vs MIN	69%	115–108	W 107–105	✓correct	−5
Nov 22	at WAS	71%	122–113	W 108–96	✓correct	+3
Nov 19	vs CLE	57%	114–112	W 120–117	✓correct	+1
Nov 16	vs TOR	91%	127–106	W 126–123	✓correct	−18
Nov 13	at BKN	61%	110–105	W 139–114	✓correct	+20
Nov 12	vs ATL	86%	127–110	L 116–117	✗missed	−18
Nov 10	at MIL	69%	116–108	W 113–107	✓correct	−2
Nov 8	vs BKN	79%	118–106	W 108–104	✓correct	−8
Nov 6	vs GSW	62%	115–111	L 112–118	✗missed	−10
Nov 4	at ATL	66%	118–111	W 123–93	✓correct	+23
Nov 2	at CHA	69%	114–106	W 113–103	✓correct	+2
Nov 1	at CHA	64%	115–109	W 124–109	✓correct	+9
Oct 30	at IND	64%	112–106	L 132–135	✗missed	−9
Oct 28	vs MIL	73%	119–110	W 119–108	✓correct	+2
Oct 26	at DET	75%	114–103	W 124–118	✓correct	−5
Oct 24	at WAS	69%	116–108	W 122–102	✓correct	+12
Oct 22	vs NYK	81%	119–106	W 132–109	✓correct	+10
Jun 17 PO	vs DAL	53%	109–110	W 106–88	✗missed	+19
Jun 14 PO	at DAL	49%	107–105	L 84–122	✗missed	−40
Jun 12 PO	at DAL	47%	106–105	W 106–99	✓correct	+6
Jun 9 PO	vs DAL	59%	108–106	W 105–98	✓correct	+5
Jun 6 PO	vs DAL	67%	111–105	W 107–89	✓correct	+12
May 27 PO	at IND	47%	110–109	W 105–102	✓correct	+2
May 25 PO	at IND	47%	109–108	W 114–111	✓correct	+2
May 23 PO	vs IND	57%	109–108	W 126–110	✓correct	+15
May 21 PO	vs IND	61%	111–108	W 133–128	✓correct	+2
May 15 PO	vs CLE	65%	109–104	W 113–98	✓correct	+10
May 13 PO	at CLE	43%	104–105	W 109–102	✗missed	+8
May 11 PO	at CLE	43%	105–106	W 106–93	✗missed	+14
May 9 PO	vs CLE	63%	109–105	L 94–118	✗missed	−28
May 7 PO	vs CLE	70%	113–105	W 120–95	✓correct	+17
May 1 PO	vs MIA	67%	109–103	W 118–84	✓correct	+28
Apr 29 PO	at MIA	47%	104–103	W 102–88	✓correct	+13
Apr 27 PO	at MIA	49%	106–104	W 104–84	✓correct	+18
Apr 24 PO	vs MIA	70%	110–102	L 101–111	✗missed	−18
Apr 21 PO	vs MIA	75%	114–103	W 114–94	✓correct	+9
Apr 14	vs WAS	73%	118–108	W 132–122	✓correct	±0
Apr 12	vs CHA	68%	112–105	W 131–98	✓correct	+26
Apr 11	vs NYK	49%	106–109	L 109–118	✓correct	−6
Apr 9	at MIL	47%	108–107	L 91–104	✗missed	−14
Apr 7	vs POR	76%	112–100	W 124–107	✓correct	+5
Apr 5	vs SAC	53%	108–109	W 101–100	✗missed	+2
Apr 3	vs OKC	73%	114–104	W 135–100	✓correct	+25
Apr 1	at CHA	61%	114–106	W 118–104	✓correct	+6
Mar 30	at NOP	57%	108–102	W 104–92	✓correct	+6
Mar 28	at ATL	65%	116–106	L 122–123	✗missed	−11
Mar 25	at ATL	53%	110–106	L 118–120	✗missed	−6
Mar 23	at CHI	47%	115–114	W 124–113	✓correct	+10
Mar 22	at DET	57%	112–106	W 129–102	✓correct	+21
Mar 20	vs MIL	70%	114–106	W 122–119	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	vs DET	76%	118–106	W 119–94	✓correct	+13
Mar 17	at WAS	65%	118–108	W 130–104	✓correct	+16
Mar 14	vs PHX	63%	112–108	W 127–112	✓correct	+11
Mar 12	at UTA	51%	120–117	W 123–107	✓correct	+13
Mar 11	at POR	55%	110–105	W 121–99	✓correct	+17
Mar 9	at PHX	51%	112–109	W 117–107	✓correct	+7
Mar 7	at DEN	51%	110–107	L 109–115	✗missed	−9
Mar 5	at CLE	49%	108–106	L 104–105	✗missed	−3
Mar 3	vs GSW	70%	118–110	W 140–88	✓correct	+44
Mar 1	vs DAL	65%	117–112	W 138–110	✓correct	+23
Feb 27	vs PHI	61%	115–112	W 117–99	✓correct	+15
Feb 24	at NYK	49%	112–110	W 116–102	✓correct	+12
Feb 22	at CHI	51%	119–116	W 129–112	✓correct	+14
Feb 14	vs BKN	67%	119–113	W 136–86	✓correct	+44
Feb 13	at BKN	57%	118–112	W 118–110	✓correct	+2
Feb 11	at MIA	49%	115–113	W 110–106	✓correct	+2
Feb 9	vs WAS	83%	126–109	W 133–129	✓correct	−13
Feb 7	vs ATL	63%	119–115	W 125–117	✓correct	+4
Feb 4	vs MEM	70%	114–106	W 131–91	✓correct	+32
Feb 1	vs LAL	76%	126–114	L 105–114	✗missed	−21
Jan 30	vs IND	65%	119–114	W 129–124	✓correct	±0
Jan 29	vs NOP	59%	116–114	W 118–112	✓correct	+4
Jan 27	vs LAC	57%	111–110	L 96–115	✗missed	−20
Jan 25	at MIA	53%	110–106	W 143–110	✓correct	+29
Jan 22	at DAL	43%	119–120	W 119–110	✗missed	+10
Jan 21	at HOU	53%	115–111	W 116–107	✓correct	+5
Jan 19	vs DEN	57%	114–113	L 100–102	✗missed	−3
Jan 17	vs SAS	78%	124–111	W 117–98	✓correct	+6
Jan 15	at TOR	51%	123–120	W 105–96	✓correct	+6
Jan 13	vs HOU	70%	121–113	W 145–113	✓correct	+24
Jan 11	at MIL	51%	120–117	L 102–135	✗missed	−36
Jan 10	vs MIN	61%	115–112	W 127–120	✓correct	+4
Jan 8	at IND	47%	119–118	L 131–133	✗missed	−3
Jan 6	at IND	43%	117–118	W 118–101	✗missed	+18
Jan 5	vs UTA	65%	118–113	W 126–97	✓correct	+24
Jan 2	at OKC	51%	116–113	L 123–127	✗missed	−7
Dec 31	at SAS	57%	119–113	W 134–101	✓correct	+27
Dec 29	vs TOR	61%	116–113	W 120–118	✓correct	−1
Dec 28	vs DET	79%	124–110	W 128–122	✓correct	−8
Dec 25	at LAL	55%	116–111	W 126–115	✓correct	+6
Dec 23	at LAC	47%	115–114	W 145–108	✓correct	+36
Dec 20	at SAC	37%	114–118	W 144–119	✗missed	+29
Dec 19	at GSW	47%	117–116	L 126–132	✗missed	−7
Dec 17	vs ORL	61%	118–115	W 114–97	✓correct	+14
Dec 15	vs ORL	59%	116–114	W 128–111	✓correct	+15
Dec 14	vs CLE	63%	117–113	W 116–107	✓correct	+5
Dec 12	vs CLE	68%	119–112	W 120–113	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	vs NYK	67%	117–111	W 133–123	✓correct	+4
Dec 4	at IND	47%	121–120	L 112–122	✗missed	−11
Dec 1	vs PHI	53%	110–111	W 125–119	✗missed	+7
Nov 28	vs CHI	59%	109–107	W 124–97	✓correct	+25
Nov 26	vs ATL	61%	115–112	W 113–103	✓correct	+7
Nov 24	at ORL	43%	111–112	L 96–113	✓correct	−16
Nov 22	vs MIL	59%	114–112	W 119–116	✓correct	+1
Nov 20	at CHA	53%	117–113	L 118–121	✗missed	−7
Nov 19	at MEM	51%	114–111	W 102–100	✓correct	−1
Nov 17	at TOR	55%	111–106	W 108–105	✓correct	−2
Nov 15	at PHI	41%	111–113	W 117–107	✗missed	+12
Nov 13	vs NYK	53%	110–111	W 114–98	✗missed	+17
Nov 11	vs TOR	61%	114–111	W 117–94	✓correct	+20
Nov 10	vs BKN	68%	114–107	W 121–107	✓correct	+7
Nov 8	at PHI	35%	107–112	L 103–106	✓correct	+2
Nov 6	at MIN	37%	106–110	L 109–114	✓correct	−1
Nov 4	at BKN	41%	108–110	W 124–114	✗missed	+12
Nov 1	vs IND	67%	118–112	W 155–104	✓correct	+45
Oct 30	at WAS	49%	116–114	W 126–107	✓correct	+17
Oct 27	vs MIA	61%	108–105	W 119–111	✓correct	+5
Oct 25	at NYK	35%	106–111	W 108–104	✗missed	+9
May 29 PO	vs MIA	63%	111–106	L 84–103	✗missed	−24
May 27 PO	at MIA	45%	102–104	W 104–103	✗missed	+3
May 25 PO	vs MIA	70%	112–104	W 110–97	✓correct	+5
May 23 PO	at MIA	40%	104–108	W 116–99	✗missed	+21
May 21 PO	at MIA	35%	100–106	L 102–128	✓correct	−20
May 19 PO	vs MIA	74%	114–104	L 105–111	✗missed	−16
May 17 PO	vs MIA	78%	113–101	L 116–123	✗missed	−19
May 14 PO	vs PHI	72%	113–104	W 112–88	✓correct	+15
May 11 PO	at PHI	30%	101–109	W 95–86	✗missed	+17
May 9 PO	vs PHI	78%	112–100	L 103–115	✗missed	−24
May 7 PO	at PHI	40%	102–106	L 115–116	✓correct	+3
May 5 PO	at PHI	40%	103–107	W 114–102	✗missed	+16
May 3 PO	vs PHI	70%	107–99	W 121–87	✓correct	+26
May 1 PO	vs PHI	72%	108–99	L 115–119	✗missed	−13
Apr 27 PO	at ATL	47%	112–113	W 128–120	✗missed	+9
Apr 25 PO	vs ATL	76%	118–107	L 117–119	✗missed	−13
Apr 23 PO	at ATL	53%	113–112	W 129–121	✓correct	+7
Apr 21 PO	at ATL	55%	115–113	L 122–130	✗missed	−10
Apr 18 PO	vs ATL	72%	120–111	W 119–106	✓correct	+4
Apr 15 PO	vs ATL	68%	120–113	W 112–99	✓correct	+6
Apr 9	vs ATL	63%	124–119	W 120–114	✓correct	+1
Apr 7	vs TOR	63%	118–113	W 121–102	✓correct	+14
Apr 5	vs TOR	47%	115–116	W 97–93	✗missed	+5
Apr 4	at PHI	35%	108–114	L 101–103	✓correct	+4
Mar 31	vs UTA	65%	119–113	W 122–114	✓correct	+2
Mar 30	at MIL	37%	116–121	W 140–99	✗missed	+46
Mar 28	at WAS	70%	121–113	L 111–130	✗missed	−27
Mar 26	vs SAS	87%	122–104	W 137–93	✓correct	+26
Mar 24	vs IND	78%	124–112	W 120–95	✓correct	+13
Mar 21	at SAC	63%	116–111	W 132–109	✓correct	+18
Mar 18	at UTA	60%	115–111	L 117–118	✗missed	−5
Mar 17	at POR	68%	119–112	W 126–112	✓correct	+7
Mar 15	at MIN	65%	117–111	W 104–102	✓correct	−4
Mar 13	at HOU	70%	120–112	L 109–111	✗missed	−10
Mar 11	at ATL	58%	119–116	W 134–125	✓correct	+6
Mar 8	vs POR	76%	121–110	W 115–93	✓correct	+11
Mar 6	at CLE	22%	103–115	L 114–118	✓correct	+8
Mar 5	vs NYK	72%	118–109	L 129–131	✗missed	−11
Mar 3	vs BKN	70%	119–111	L 105–115	✗missed	−18
Mar 1	vs CLE	60%	113–109	W 117–113	✓correct	±0
Feb 27	at NYK	37%	104–109	L 94–109	✓correct	−10
Feb 25	at PHI	42%	107–110	W 110–107	✗missed	+6
Feb 23	at IND	65%	119–113	W 142–138	✓correct	−2
Feb 15	vs DET	68%	115–108	W 127–109	✓correct	+11
Feb 14	at MIL	28%	111–120	L 125–131	✓correct	+3
Feb 12	vs MEM	45%	109–111	W 119–109	✗missed	+12
Feb 10	vs CHA	68%	113–106	W 127–116	✓correct	+4
Feb 8	vs PHI	72%	118–109	W 106–99	✓correct	−2
Feb 6	at DET	68%	119–112	W 111–99	✓correct	+5
Feb 3	vs PHX	65%	116–110	L 94–106	✗missed	−18
Feb 1	vs BKN	68%	115–108	W 139–96	✓correct	+36
Jan 28	vs LAL	72%	117–108	W 125–121	✓correct	−5
Jan 26	vs NYK	74%	119–109	L 117–120	✗missed	−13
Jan 24	at MIA	37%	107–112	L 95–98	✓correct	+2
Jan 23	at ORL	55%	115–113	L 98–113	✗missed	−17
Jan 21	at TOR	53%	113–112	W 106–104	✓correct	+1
Jan 19	vs GSW	60%	119–115	W 121–118	✓correct	−1
Jan 16	at CHA	58%	117–114	W 130–118	✓correct	+9
Jan 14	at CHA	60%	116–112	W 122–106	✓correct	+12
Jan 12	at BKN	28%	110–119	W 109–98	✗missed	+20
Jan 11	vs NOP	78%	119–107	W 125–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 9	vs CHI	78%	123–111	W 107–99	✓correct	−4
Jan 7	at SAS	78%	125–113	W 121–116	✓correct	−7
Jan 5	at DAL	47%	113–114	W 124–95	✗missed	+30
Jan 3	at OKC	72%	119–110	L 117–150	✗missed	−42
Jan 1	at DEN	45%	113–115	L 111–123	✓correct	−10
Dec 29	vs LAC	63%	117–112	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 27	vs HOU	70%	117–109	W 126–102	✓correct	+16
Dec 25	vs MIL	60%	114–110	W 139–118	✓correct	+17
Dec 23	vs MIN	60%	115–111	W 121–109	✓correct	+8
Dec 21	vs IND	65%	118–112	L 112–117	✗missed	−11
Dec 18	vs ORL	70%	116–108	L 92–95	✗missed	−11
Dec 16	vs ORL	76%	120–109	L 109–117	✗missed	−19
Dec 13	at LAL	53%	118–117	W 122–118	✓correct	+3
Dec 12	at LAC	70%	117–109	L 93–113	✗missed	−28
Dec 10	at GSW	47%	115–116	L 107–123	✓correct	−15
Dec 7	at PHX	53%	114–113	W 125–98	✓correct	+26
Dec 5	at TOR	65%	115–109	W 116–110	✓correct	±0
Dec 4	at BKN	53%	114–113	W 103–92	✓correct	+10
Dec 2	vs MIA	47%	112–113	L 116–120	✓correct	−3
Nov 30	vs MIA	63%	113–108	W 134–121	✓correct	+8
Nov 28	vs CHA	68%	115–108	W 140–105	✓correct	+28
Nov 27	vs WAS	72%	118–109	W 130–121	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs SAC	65%	120–114	W 122–104	✓correct	+12
Nov 23	vs DAL	60%	115–111	W 125–112	✓correct	+9
Nov 21	at CHI	72%	120–111	L 107–121	✗missed	−23
Nov 18	at NOP	47%	113–114	W 117–109	✗missed	+9
Nov 16	at ATL	40%	109–113	W 126–101	✗missed	+29
Nov 14	vs OKC	76%	120–109	W 126–122	✓correct	−7
Nov 12	at DET	55%	111–109	W 117–108	✓correct	+7
Nov 11	vs DEN	60%	116–112	W 131–112	✓correct	+15
Nov 9	vs DET	78%	119–107	W 128–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	at MEM	58%	113–110	W 109–106	✓correct	±0
Nov 5	at NYK	70%	113–105	W 133–118	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	vs CHI	58%	111–108	W 123–119	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	at CLE	47%	109–110	L 113–114	✓correct	±0
Oct 30	vs WAS	70%	114–106	W 112–94	✓correct	+10
Oct 28	vs CLE	53%	109–108	L 123–132	✗missed	−10
Oct 24	at CHI	72%	110–101	L 102–120	✗missed	−27
Oct 22	at ORL	65%	107–101	W 126–120	✓correct	±0
Oct 21	at MIA	55%	103–101	W 111–104	✓correct	+5
Oct 18	vs PHI	53%	106–105	W 126–117	✓correct	+8

Surprise games

All BOS surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected BOS wins

28%BOS beat BKN109–98Jan 12, 2022-23 · forecast BKN119–110 · missed margin by 20
30%BOS beat PHI95–86May 11, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast PHI109–101 · missed margin by 17
31%BOS beat HOU114–93Feb 4, 2025-26 · forecast HOU112–105 · missed margin by 28
35%BOS beat NYK108–104Oct 25, 2023-24 · forecast NYK111–106 · missed margin by 9
36%BOS beat CHA113–102Apr 7, 2025-26 · forecast CHA112–107 · missed margin by 16

Most unexpected BOS losses

14%ATL beat BOS117–116Nov 12, 2024-25 · forecast BOS127–110 · missed margin by 18
17%PHI beat BOS117–116Oct 22, 2025-26 · forecast BOS115–101 · missed margin by 15
18%TOR beat BOS110–97Jan 15, 2024-25 · forecast BOS118–103 · missed margin by 28
19%PHI beat BOS111–97Apr 21, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast BOS115–102 · missed margin by 27
20%BKN beat BOS113–105Nov 21, 2025-26 · forecast BOS117–105 · missed margin by 20

Largest margin misses

37%BOS beat MIL140–99Mar 30, 2022-23 · forecast MIL121–116 · missed margin by 46
67%BOS beat IND155–104Nov 1, 2023-24 · forecast BOS118–112 · missed margin by 45
70%BOS beat GSW140–88Mar 3, 2023-24 · forecast BOS118–110 · missed margin by 44
67%BOS beat BKN136–86Feb 14, 2023-24 · forecast BOS119–113 · missed margin by 44
28%OKC beat BOS150–117Jan 3, 2022-23 · forecast BOS119–110 · missed margin by 42

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected BOS wins

Most unexpected BOS losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions