The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

MEM 1–0@GSW 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 39 percent, GSW 61 percent. MEM Grizzlies 39% proj. 117 · final 111 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 61% proj. 121 · final 108
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 117 111 −6
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 121 108 −13

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMGSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13421434
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +162
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.8−1.6
Games played this season 11
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.2113.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 125.8122.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1342GSW1434

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1342

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
  2. This season's 1 game: +12.8
  • WUTA123–103+12.8

GSW1434

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 1 game: −7.5
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
Season scoring marginMEM−4.8GSW−1.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−4.8

Scores 123.0, allows 103.0 over 1 game: +20.0 a game.

5% this season (+20.0) + 95% last season (−6.1) = −4.8

GSW−1.6

Scores 105.0, allows 127.0 over 1 game: −22.0 a game.

5% this season (−22.0) + 95% last season (−0.6) = −1.6

Offensive rating, last 10MEM109.2GSW113.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM109.2scored, −5.4 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.5%−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)14.3%26.1%−5.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1790.210−0.9
Everything else+3.4

GSW113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.5%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.210+0.3
Everything else+1.4
Defensive rating, last 10MEM125.8GSW122.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM125.8allowed, +11.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.6%54.5%−9.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)50.3%26.1%−10.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else+8.0

GSW122.1allowed, +7.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.2%54.5%−8.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.210+0.7
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 104.0 and GSW 97.8 → average 100.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0GSW0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysGSW2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Oct 21 against UTA.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 21 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21UTA123–10344-9313-3422-281315118.399.0104.0
Apr 12@HOU101–13239-9513-4910-1013398.1128.2103.0
Apr 10@UTA101–14741-10911-528-919483.5121.5121.0
Apr 8@DEN119–13642-9219-5016-2363119.0136.0100.0
Apr 6CLE126–14245-9429-597-10133122.3137.9103.0
Apr 5@MIL115–13138-9217-4622-28149112.7129.7101.5
Apr 3TOR96–12834-8511-4217-2620893.2125.5102.5
Apr 1NYK119–13039-7616-3625-30133126.6136.894.5
Mar 30PHX105–13138-7511-3018-20224106.1132.399.0
Mar 28CHI125–12450-10712-3813-17148112.6110.7111.5

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0
Apr 7SAC110–10537-8217-3819-241710114.6111.795.0
Apr 5HOU116–11742-8414-4018-20106123.4124.594.0
Apr 2CLE111–11841-9412-4417-201212109.9116.8101.0
Apr 1SAS113–12742-8614-3515-18132111.9125.7101.0
Mar 29@DEN93–11635-8314-429-11137100.0124.793.0
Mar 27WAS131–12644-8519-4424-31129126.0121.2104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored GSW
7 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −3 for GSW
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
88th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMGSW
Final score111108
Field goals40–86 · 46.5%34–83 · 41.0%
Three-pointers15–39 · 38.5%14–41 · 34.1%
Free throws16–22 · 72.7%26–29 · 89.7%
Rebounds4741
Assists2723
Turnovers2519
Steals712
Blocks76

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Golden State Warriors

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+4−3−7
Total points238219−19
MEM points117111−6
GSW points121108−13

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs UTA W 123–103
Apr 12 at HOU L 101–132
Apr 10 at UTA L 101–147
Apr 8 at DEN L 119–136
Apr 6 vs CLE L 126–142

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at LAL L 105–127
Apr 12 at LAC L 110–115
Apr 10 at SAC L 118–124
Apr 9 vs LAL L 103–119
Apr 7 vs SAC W 110–105

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Feb 25 2025-26 GSW at MEM GSW 133 – 112 MEM
Feb 9 2025-26 MEM at GSW MEM 113 – 114 GSW
Oct 27 2025-26 MEM at GSW MEM 118 – 131 GSW
Apr 1 2024-25 GSW at MEM GSW 134 – 125 MEM
Jan 4 2024-25 MEM at GSW MEM 113 – 121 GSW