2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

GSW 0–2@PHX 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	109	122	+13
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	116	131	+15

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	PHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1425	1501
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+146
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.8	−1.5
Games played this season	2	1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.5	108.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	121.2	119.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	28.5	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1425PHX1501

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1425

Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
This season's 2 games: −16.7

L@LAL105–127−7.5
LMEM108–111−9.2

PHX1501

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
This season's 1 game: −22.0

L@POR83–124−22.0

Season scoring marginGSW−1.8PHX−1.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW−1.8

Scores 106.5, allows 119.0 over 2 games: −12.5 a game.

10% this season (−12.5) + 90% last season (−0.6) = −1.8

PHX−1.5

Scores 83.0, allows 124.0 over 1 game: −41.0 a game.

5% this season (−41.0) + 95% last season (+0.6) = −1.5

Offensive rating, last 10GSW111.5PHX108.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW111.5scored, −3.0 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	54.5%	−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.2%	26.1%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.210	+0.4
Everything else			+1.8

PHX108.5scored, −6.1 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.9%	54.5%	−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	12.2%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	26.1%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+1.0

Defensive rating, last 10GSW121.2PHX119.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW121.2allowed, +6.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.5%	54.5%	−7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.2%	+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.0%	26.1%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.196	0.210	+0.4
Everything else			+0.3

PHX119.2allowed, +4.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.5%	−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	12.2%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.9%	26.1%	−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			−0.7

Pace, last 10average 97.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 97.4 and PHX 96.8 → average 97.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW28.5PHX0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW28.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Stephen Curry	23.5	25.5	2
Draymond Green	3.5	26.1	2
Al Horford	1.5	18.3	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestGSW1 daysPHX3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against MEM.

PHX3days

Last played Oct 21 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	MEM	108–111	34-83	14-41	26-29	19	18	108.0	112.1	99.5
Oct 21	@LAL	105–127	38-92	8-36	21-27	15	15	102.9	124.5	102.0
Apr 12	@LAC	110–115	36-86	11-39	27-32	9	13	117.0	121.1	94.5
Apr 10	@SAC	118–124	39-81	14-36	26-28	16	5	115.7	121.6	102.0
Apr 9	LAL	103–119	41-81	9-30	12-12	19	9	112.0	129.3	92.0
Apr 7	SAC	110–105	37-82	17-38	19-24	17	10	114.6	111.7	95.0
Apr 5	HOU	116–117	42-84	14-40	18-20	10	6	123.4	124.5	94.0
Apr 2	CLE	111–118	41-94	12-44	17-20	12	12	109.9	116.8	101.0
Apr 1	SAS	113–127	42-86	14-35	15-18	13	2	111.9	125.7	101.0
Mar 29	@DEN	93–116	35-83	14-42	9-11	13	7	100.0	124.7	93.0

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 21	@POR	83–124	30-84	6-32	17-23	15	13	86.5	126.5	97.0
Apr 27	OKC	122–131	48-90	14-39	12-16	12	10	125.8	136.5	96.5
Apr 25	OKC	109–121	38-87	13-41	20-23	11	9	111.2	122.2	98.5
Apr 22	@OKC	107–120	39-85	11-31	18-22	21	15	108.1	120.0	99.5
Apr 19	@OKC	84–119	29-83	13-39	13-18	17	13	90.3	129.3	92.5
Apr 12	@OKC	135–103	56-101	20-41	3-6	11	13	137.8	105.1	98.0
Apr 10	@LAL	73–101	26-77	7-40	14-21	23	17	81.1	112.2	90.0
Apr 8	DAL	112–107	42-91	14-35	14-17	10	12	117.9	112.6	95.0
Apr 7	HOU	105–119	32-75	7-31	34-39	18	10	108.2	121.4	97.5
Apr 5	@CHI	120–110	45-89	13-32	17-22	15	11	117.6	105.8	103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

69%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner

PHX was the forecast favorite

2 pts

margin miss

forecast +7, actual +9 for PHX

100th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

125th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	PHX
Final score	122	131
Field goals	41–91 · 45.1%	50–86 · 58.1%
Three-pointers	17–39 · 43.6%	14–37 · 37.8%
Free throws	23–32 · 71.9%	17–22 · 77.3%
Rebounds	44	42
Assists	24	33
Turnovers	16	15
Steals	9	9
Blocks	4	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Phoenix Suns

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	+7	+9	+2
Total points	225	253	+28
GSW points	109	122	+13
PHX points	116	131	+15

Recent form before this game