The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

LAC 1–0@LAL 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAC 44 percent, LAL 56 percent. LAC Clippers 44% proj. 111 · final 117 LAL Lakers · home 56% proj. 113 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 111 117 +6
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 113 125 +12

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputLACLAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15361572
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +106
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.3+2.1
Games played this season 11
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.0109.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.1113.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1536LAL1572

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1536

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. This season's 1 game: +6.8
  • WSAC121–96+6.8

LAL1572

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 1 game: +7.5
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
Season scoring marginLAC+2.3LAL+2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+2.3

Scores 121.0, allows 96.0 over 1 game: +25.0 a game.

5% this season (+25.0) + 95% last season (+1.1) = +2.3

LAL+2.1

Scores 127.0, allows 105.0 over 1 game: +22.0 a game.

5% this season (+22.0) + 95% last season (+1.0) = +2.1

Offensive rating, last 10LAC115.0LAL109.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC115.0scored, +0.5 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%54.5%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.6%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210+0.0
Everything else−0.5

LAL109.2scored, −5.4 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)15.9%12.2%−5.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2470.210+1.1
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10LAC113.1LAL113.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC113.1allowed, −1.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2100.210+0.0
Everything else−0.1

LAL113.2allowed, −1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.210+0.1
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 96.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 99.3 and LAL 94.3 → average 96.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0LAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestLAC2 daysLAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC2days

Last played Oct 21 against SAC.

LAL2days

Last played Oct 21 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21SAC121–9643-8214-3521-311711116.391.4104.5
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0
Apr 5@SAC138–10949-9220-4120-211410135.3105.8102.5
Apr 2SAS99–11840-935-2714-181010100.0120.498.5
Mar 31POR104–11438-7610-3018-23148114.3123.991.5
Mar 29@MIL127–11345-7713-3024-28167125.7111.9101.0
Mar 27@IND114–11341-9613-3419-271116115.2111.9100.0

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5
May 1@HOU98–7836-8912-2814-241015106.583.992.5
Apr 29HOU93–9932-767-2722-271513103.3110.090.0
Apr 26@HOU96–11537-745-2217-212310103.2122.393.5
Apr 24@HOU112–10838-7912-2924-32209105.7104.994.6
Apr 21HOU101–9433-7213-2822-28129112.2105.689.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
LAL was the forecast favorite
6 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +8 for LAL
61st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLACLAL
Final score117125
Field goals41–83 · 49.4%46–79 · 58.2%
Three-pointers16–37 · 43.2%14–32 · 43.8%
Free throws19–25 · 76.0%19–25 · 76.0%
Rebounds3537
Assists2429
Turnovers2521
Steals1313
Blocks49

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+2+8+6
Total points224242+18
LAC points111117+6
LAL points113125+12

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs SAC W 121–96
Apr 12 vs GSW W 115–110
Apr 10 at POR L 97–116
Apr 8 vs OKC L 110–128
Apr 7 vs DAL W 116–103

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs GSW W 127–105
May 11 vs OKC L 110–115
May 9 vs OKC L 108–131
May 7 at OKC L 107–125
May 5 at OKC L 90–108

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Feb 20 2025-26 LAC at LAL LAC 122 – 125 LAL
Jan 22 2025-26 LAL at LAC LAL 104 – 112 LAC
Dec 20 2025-26 LAL at LAC LAL 88 – 103 LAC
Nov 25 2025-26 LAC at LAL LAC 118 – 135 LAL
Mar 2 2024-25 LAC at LAL LAC 102 – 108 LAL