2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

LAC 1–1@OKC 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers	108	101	−7
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	117	108	−9

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAC	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1530	1703
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+243
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.9	+10.8
Games played this season	2	2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.9	109.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.2	109.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1530OKC1703

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1530

Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
This season's 2 games: +0.9

WSAC121–96+6.8
L@LAL117–125−5.9

OKC1703

Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
This season's 2 games: +21.2

W@SAS116–104+15.8
WDEN96–84+5.4

Season scoring marginLAC+1.9OKC+10.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+1.9

Scores 119.0, allows 110.5 over 2 games: +8.5 a game.

10% this season (+8.5) + 90% last season (+1.1) = +1.9

OKC+10.8

Scores 106.0, allows 94.0 over 2 games: +12.0 a game.

10% this season (+12.0) + 90% last season (+10.7) = +10.8

Offensive rating, last 10LAC114.9OKC109.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC114.9scored, +0.3 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.6%	54.5%	+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.5%	12.2%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	26.1%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.214	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			−0.2

OKC109.0scored, −5.6 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.5%	54.5%	−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	12.2%	+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	26.1%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.215	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			−0.8

Defensive rating, last 10LAC114.2OKC109.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC114.2allowed, −0.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.5%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.6%	12.2%	+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	26.1%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.221	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			+0.5

OKC109.2allowed, −5.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.3%	54.5%	+6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.2%	12.2%	+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.4%	26.1%	−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.249	0.210	−1.1
Everything else			−1.1

Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 99.5 and OKC 97.9 → average 98.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestLAC2 daysOKC3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC2days

Last played Oct 23 against LAL.

OKC3days

Last played Oct 22 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	@LAL	117–125	41-83	16-37	19-25	25	11	113.6	122.5	102.5
Oct 21	SAC	121–96	43-82	14-35	21-31	17	11	116.3	91.4	104.5
Apr 12	GSW	115–110	42-89	14-39	17-19	10	10	121.1	117.0	94.5
Apr 10	@POR	97–116	36-83	13-40	12-12	16	9	102.1	122.1	95.0
Apr 8	OKC	110–128	40-86	14-32	16-24	13	10	111.1	129.3	99.0
Apr 7	DAL	116–103	41-92	14-37	20-28	14	11	109.4	97.2	106.0
Apr 5	@SAC	138–109	49-92	20-41	20-21	14	10	135.3	105.8	102.5
Apr 2	SAS	99–118	40-93	5-27	14-18	10	10	100.0	120.4	98.5
Mar 31	POR	104–114	38-76	10-30	18-23	14	8	114.3	123.9	91.5
Mar 29	@MIL	127–113	45-77	13-30	24-28	16	7	125.7	111.9	101.0

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 22	DEN	96–84	36-95	11-43	13-14	12	16	102.1	89.4	94.0
Oct 20	@SAS	116–104	43-95	14-31	16-20	11	10	113.7	102.0	102.0
May 30	SAS	103–111	37-83	12-35	17-22	13	10	109.6	120.7	93.0
May 28	@SAS	91–118	35-94	10-40	11-12	12	12	91.0	119.2	99.5
May 26	SAS	127–114	40-83	14-32	33-38	16	14	124.5	112.9	101.5
May 24	@SAS	82–103	30-91	6-33	16-18	17	11	80.4	102.0	101.5
May 22	@SAS	123–108	39-81	17-38	28-33	10	7	124.2	111.3	98.0
May 20	SAS	122–113	45-94	13-36	19-24	9	17	124.5	116.5	97.5
May 18	SAS	115–122	41-101	17-45	16-19	14	9	102.7	106.1	93.9
May 11	@LAL	115–110	42-81	11-31	20-24	11	6	117.3	112.2	98.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

74%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

OKC was the forecast favorite

2 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual +7 for OKC

117th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

125th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.30 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAC	OKC
Final score	101	108
Field goals	37–81 · 45.7%	42–94 · 44.7%
Three-pointers	15–38 · 39.5%	8–24 · 33.3%
Free throws	12–15 · 80.0%	16–17 · 94.1%
Rebounds	38	46
Assists	30	23
Turnovers	26	16
Steals	10	15
Blocks	4	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Oklahoma City Thunder

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+9	+7	−2
Total points	225	209	−16
LAC points	108	101	−7
OKC points	117	108	−9

Recent form before this game