The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 27

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

BKN 0–3@BOS 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 16 percent, BOS 84 percent. BKN Nets 16% proj. 106 · final 124 BOS Celtics · home 84% proj. 120 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 106 124 +18
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 120 125 +5

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 84% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBKNBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12891608
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +389
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.4+7.8
Games played this season 33
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 104.1115.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.0110.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 21
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1289BOS1608

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1289

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. This season's 3 games: −25.8
  • LCHA103–110−3.0
  • L@CLE121–125−1.3
  • LIND109–136−21.5

BOS1608

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1635 → started this one at 1601
  2. This season's 3 games: +6.3
  • L@DET113–121−6.7
  • WNYK107–103+7.1
  • WCHI134–99+5.9
Season scoring marginBKN−10.4BOS+7.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−10.4

Scores 111.0, allows 123.7 over 3 games: −12.7 a game.

15% this season (−12.7) + 85% last season (−10.0) = −10.4

BOS+7.8

Scores 118.0, allows 107.7 over 3 games: +10.3 a game.

15% this season (+10.3) + 85% last season (+7.3) = +7.8

Offensive rating, last 10BKN104.1BOS115.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN104.1scored, −10.5 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.3%54.5%−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)15.6%26.1%−4.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2360.210+0.8
Everything else+0.6

BOS115.2scored, +0.6 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.210−1.1
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10BKN121.0BOS110.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN121.0allowed, +6.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)61.6%54.5%−10.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.3
Everything else+1.2

BOS110.1allowed, −4.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.6%54.5%+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%26.1%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210−0.0
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 100.5 and BOS 95.5 → average 98.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBKN0.0BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBKN2 daysBOS1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN2days

Last played Oct 25 against IND.

BOS1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 26 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25IND109–13635-8613-3926-371510103.8129.5105.0
Oct 24@CLE121–12539-9820-4923-271818113.1116.8107.0
Oct 21CHA103–11036-8012-3119-252211102.0107.8101.5
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0
Apr 9IND94–12337-968-3812-1910390.4118.3104.0
Apr 7MIL96–9033-759-2621-23100103.296.893.0
Apr 5WAS121–11543-8815-4020-23115122.2116.299.0
Apr 3ATL107–14139-7912-2817-20181101.9135.6104.5
Mar 31CHA86–11728-737-3523-2714490.5123.295.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26CHI134–9946-9321-4421-292419126.492.5106.5
Oct 23NYK107–10340-8715-3912-161010116.3110.892.5
Oct 20@DET113–12140-8817-4216-211412113.0119.8100.5
May 2PHI100–10937-9313-4913-16510105.3116.094.5
Apr 30@PHI93–10636-8612-419-1613893.0107.199.5
Apr 28PHI97–11336-8911-3914-231215103.2120.294.0
Apr 26@PHI128–9642-8724-5320-281214139.1102.193.0
Apr 24@PHI108–10036-8120-4716-171715121.3112.489.0
Apr 21PHI97–11135-8913-5014-181118107.8126.189.0
Apr 19PHI123–9145-9016-4417-2285126.893.897.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
84%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual +1 for BOS
143rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
49th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.18 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNBOS
Final score124125
Field goals45–97 · 46.4%42–93 · 45.2%
Three-pointers17–50 · 34.0%11–41 · 26.8%
Free throws17–22 · 77.3%30–38 · 78.9%
Rebounds4847
Assists2632
Turnovers1514
Steals95
Blocks72

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+14+1−13
Total points226249+23
BKN points106124+18
BOS points120125+5

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 vs IND L 109–136
Oct 24 at CLE L 121–125
Oct 21 vs CHA L 103–110
Apr 12 at TOR L 101–136
Apr 10 at MIL L 108–125

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs CHI W 134–99
Oct 23 vs NYK W 107–103
Oct 20 at DET L 113–121
May 2 vs PHI L 100–109
Apr 30 at PHI L 93–106

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Feb 27 2025-26 BKN at BOS BKN 111 – 148 BOS
Jan 23 2025-26 BOS at BKN BOS 130 – 126 BKN
Nov 21 2025-26 BKN at BOS BKN 113 – 105 BOS
Nov 18 2025-26 BOS at BKN BOS 113 – 99 BKN
Mar 18 2024-25 BKN at BOS BKN 96 – 104 BOS