2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

GSW 0–3@DEN 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	109	134	+25
DEN Denver Nuggets (home)	119	114	−5

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	DEN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1420	1588
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+239
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.2	+3.7
Games played this season	3	2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.5	110.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	121.7	111.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1420DEN1588

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1420

Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
This season's 3 games: −21.9

L@LAL105–127−7.5
LMEM108–111−9.2
L@PHX122–131−5.2

DEN1588

Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
This season's 2 games: −2.9

L@OKC84–96−5.4
WNOP141–135+2.5

Season scoring marginGSW−2.2DEN+3.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW−2.2

Scores 111.7, allows 123.0 over 3 games: −11.3 a game.

15% this season (−11.3) + 85% last season (−0.6) = −2.2

DEN+3.7

Scores 112.5, allows 115.5 over 2 games: −3.0 a game.

10% this season (−3.0) + 90% last season (+4.5) = +3.7

Offensive rating, last 10GSW113.5DEN110.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW113.5scored, −1.1 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.5%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.1%	26.1%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.238	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			+1.9

DEN110.8scored, −3.7 vs league

Factor	DEN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.4%	54.5%	−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.2%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.1%	26.1%	−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.256	0.210	+1.3
Everything else			+0.6

Defensive rating, last 10GSW121.7DEN111.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW121.7allowed, +7.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.0%	54.5%	−8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.1%	12.2%	+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.9%	26.1%	−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.210	+0.2
Everything else			+0.8

DEN111.6allowed, −3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	54.5%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.2%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.5%	26.1%	−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			+0.6

Pace, last 10average 99.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 98.3 and DEN 100.0 → average 99.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0DEN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 6 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysDEN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 24 against PHX.

DEN2days

Last played Oct 24 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 24	@PHX	122–131	41-91	17-39	23-32	16	19	119.6	129.7	101.5
Oct 23	MEM	108–111	34-83	14-41	26-29	19	18	108.0	112.1	99.5
Oct 21	@LAL	105–127	38-92	8-36	21-27	15	15	102.9	124.5	102.0
Apr 12	@LAC	110–115	36-86	11-39	27-32	9	13	117.0	121.1	94.5
Apr 10	@SAC	118–124	39-81	14-36	26-28	16	5	115.7	121.6	102.0
Apr 9	LAL	103–119	41-81	9-30	12-12	19	9	112.0	129.3	92.0
Apr 7	SAC	110–105	37-82	17-38	19-24	17	10	114.6	111.7	95.0
Apr 5	HOU	116–117	42-84	14-40	18-20	10	6	123.4	124.5	94.0
Apr 2	CLE	111–118	41-94	12-44	17-20	12	12	109.9	116.8	101.0
Apr 1	SAS	113–127	42-86	14-35	15-18	13	2	111.9	125.7	101.0

DEN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 24	NOP	141–135	48-99	15-47	30-39	11	14	119.5	116.4	106.0
Oct 22	@OKC	84–96	31-82	8-30	14-22	22	19	89.4	102.1	94.0
Apr 30	@MIN	98–110	34-75	10-27	20-25	13	6	105.4	118.3	93.0
Apr 27	MIN	125–113	47-83	11-29	20-25	16	5	122.5	109.7	102.5
Apr 25	@MIN	96–112	33-87	6-28	24-28	10	12	101.1	119.1	94.5
Apr 23	@MIN	96–113	28-82	8-32	32-40	10	6	95.0	111.9	101.0
Apr 20	MIN	114–119	38-86	15-41	23-30	9	5	110.7	116.7	102.5
Apr 18	MIN	116–105	38-87	10-36	30-33	13	8	113.7	101.9	102.5
Apr 12	@SAS	128–118	50-100	11-30	17-22	10	12	126.7	115.7	101.5
Apr 10	OKC	127–107	47-93	21-43	12-13	16	10	124.5	103.9	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

the forecast favored DEN

30 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −20 for DEN

3rd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

8th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 1.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	DEN
Final score	134	114
Field goals	46–85 · 54.1%	42–84 · 50.0%
Three-pointers	22–44 · 50.0%	10–29 · 34.5%
Free throws	20–21 · 95.2%	20–23 · 87.0%
Rebounds	45	32
Assists	31	31
Turnovers	17	11
Steals	5	13
Blocks	2	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Denver Nuggets

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)	+10	−20	−30
Total points	228	248	+20
GSW points	109	134	+25
DEN points	119	114	−5

Recent form before this game