2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

DET 3–0@NYK 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DET Detroit Pistons	109	97	−12
NYK New York Knicks (home)	110	111	+1

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DET	NYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1640	1672
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+102
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+8.0	+5.8
Games played this season	3	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.0	113.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.6	107.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	13.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1640NYK1672

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1640

Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
This season's 3 games: +30.7

WBOS121–113+6.7
W@MIA128–111+12.1
W@PHI106–93+11.9

NYK1672

Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
This season's 3 games: −42.9

LPHI100–106−16.0
L@BOS103–107−7.1
LORL102–111−19.8

Season scoring marginDET+8.0NYK+5.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET+8.0

Scores 118.3, allows 105.7 over 3 games: +12.7 a game.

15% this season (+12.7) + 85% last season (+7.2) = +8.0

NYK+5.8

Scores 101.7, allows 108.0 over 3 games: −6.3 a game.

15% this season (−6.3) + 85% last season (+7.9) = +5.8

Offensive rating, last 10DET115.0NYK113.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET115.0scored, +0.4 vs league

Factor	DET	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	54.5%	−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.4%	26.1%	+2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.210	+0.0
Everything else			+0.0

NYK113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

Factor	NYK	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.5%	−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.2%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	26.1%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10DET111.6NYK107.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET111.6allowed, −3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.5%	+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.2%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.7%	26.1%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.260	0.210	−1.4
Everything else			+0.5

NYK107.6allowed, −7.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.8%	54.5%	+5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.2%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.6%	26.1%	+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 96.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 95.5 and NYK 96.7 → average 96.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDET13.0NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET13.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Duren	13.0	19.1	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDET2 daysNYK2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET2days

Last played Oct 25 against PHI.

NYK2days

Last played Oct 25 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 25	@PHI	106–93	38-87	14-34	16-25	15	15	110.4	97.9	95.5
Oct 23	@MIA	128–111	47-89	18-38	16-20	19	12	125.5	107.8	102.5
Oct 20	BOS	121–113	39-86	15-40	28-32	17	14	119.8	113.0	100.5
May 17	CLE	94–125	30-85	12-39	22-29	14	10	94.0	125.0	100.0
May 15	@CLE	115–94	43-82	16-36	13-19	17	13	122.3	100.0	94.0
May 13	CLE	113–117	42-95	11-33	18-20	10	15	116.5	118.2	88.8
May 11	@CLE	103–112	42-83	10-23	9-12	18	11	110.8	120.4	93.0
May 9	@CLE	109–116	41-91	9-25	18-22	15	17	114.7	119.6	96.0
May 7	CLE	107–97	39-80	14-28	15-20	10	12	118.9	107.8	90.0
May 5	CLE	111–101	37-84	10-26	27-35	11	16	116.8	106.3	95.0

NYK

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 25	ORL	102–111	38-93	9-38	17-24	14	12	102.0	112.1	99.5
Oct 23	@BOS	103–107	36-80	16-40	15-21	16	12	110.8	116.3	92.5
Oct 20	PHI	100–106	35-94	11-33	19-27	14	14	98.0	103.9	102.0
Jun 10	SAS	107–106	36-78	15-32	20-28	13	8	115.1	112.8	93.5
Jun 8	SAS	111–115	40-88	13-37	18-22	13	12	119.4	123.7	93.0
Jun 5	@SAS	105–104	37-89	15-38	16-21	12	10	108.2	105.1	98.0
Jun 3	@SAS	105–95	39-94	11-36	16-18	8	10	105.0	96.0	99.5
May 25	@CLE	130–93	48-98	19-43	15-20	13	20	127.5	91.2	102.0
May 23	@CLE	121–108	43-77	11-28	24-27	14	8	124.7	110.2	97.5
May 21	CLE	109–93	44-85	13-36	8-14	6	5	122.5	104.5	89.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

53%

pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner

NYK was the forecast favorite

13 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual +14 for NYK

52nd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

49th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DET	NYK
Final score	97	111
Field goals	37–87 · 42.5%	38–88 · 43.2%
Three-pointers	9–37 · 24.3%	12–36 · 33.3%
Free throws	14–24 · 58.3%	23–28 · 82.1%
Rebounds	45	49
Assists	23	28
Turnovers	14	18
Steals	8	10
Blocks	11	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · New York Knicks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)	+1	+14	+13
Total points	219	208	−11
DET points	109	97	−12
NYK points	110	111	+1

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 25	at PHI	W 106–93
Oct 23	at MIA	W 128–111
Oct 20	vs BOS	W 121–113
May 17	vs CLE	L 94–125
May 15	at CLE	W 115–94

New York Knicks

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 25	vs ORL	L 102–111
Oct 23	at BOS	L 103–107
Oct 20	vs PHI	L 100–106
Jun 10	vs SAS	W 107–106
Jun 8	vs SAS	L 111–115

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Feb 19 2025-26	DET at NYK	DET 126 – 111 NYK
Feb 6 2025-26	NYK at DET	NYK 80 – 118 DET
Jan 5 2025-26	NYK at DET	NYK 90 – 121 DET
May 1 2024-25	NYK at DET	NYK 116 – 113 DET
Apr 29 2024-25	DET at NYK	DET 106 – 103 NYK