2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

CHA 3–1@DET 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	109	89	−20
DET Detroit Pistons (home)	111	97	−14

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	DET
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1571	1631
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+130
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.5	+6.9
Games played this season	4	4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.9	113.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.8	112.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	13.0
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1571DET1631

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1571

Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
This season's 4 games: −40.1

W@BKN110–103+3.0
LATL81–128−48.4
WMIA115–110+3.7
WWAS110–103+1.6

DET1631

Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
This season's 4 games: +22.2

WBOS121–113+6.7
W@MIA128–111+12.1
W@PHI106–93+11.9
L@NYK97–111−8.5

Season scoring marginCHA+2.5DET+6.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA+2.5

Scores 104.0, allows 111.0 over 4 games: −7.0 a game.

20% this season (−7.0) + 80% last season (+4.8) = +2.5

DET+6.9

Scores 113.0, allows 107.0 over 4 games: +6.0 a game.

20% this season (+6.0) + 80% last season (+7.2) = +6.9

Offensive rating, last 10CHA113.9DET113.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA113.9scored, −0.7 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.5%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.2%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.7%	26.1%	+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.156	0.210	−1.6
Everything else			+1.5

DET113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

Factor	DET	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.5%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.2%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.3%	26.1%	+2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10CHA112.8DET112.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA112.8allowed, −1.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	54.5%	−0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.2%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.5%	26.1%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.155	0.210	+1.6
Everything else			+0.0

DET112.4allowed, −2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.7%	54.5%	+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.8%	26.1%	−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.268	0.210	−1.7
Everything else			+0.2

Pace, last 10average 96.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 97.1 and DET 95.7 → average 96.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0DET13.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DET13.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Duren	13.0	19.1	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysDET1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Oct 26 against WAS.

DET1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 27 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 26	WAS	110–103	42-97	12-39	14-17	11	20	114.6	108.4	95.5
Oct 24	MIA	115–110	38-88	16-43	23-25	16	10	113.9	107.8	101.5
Oct 23	ATL	81–128	30-87	11-51	10-12	25	19	81.0	128.0	100.0
Oct 21	@BKN	110–103	41-93	15-48	13-15	20	15	107.8	102.0	101.5
Apr 12	@NYK	110–96	39-85	19-52	13-17	17	12	118.3	102.1	93.5
Apr 10	DET	100–118	34-88	13-47	19-23	15	14	104.2	124.2	95.5
Apr 7	@BOS	102–113	38-88	16-49	10-13	12	14	112.1	122.8	91.5
Apr 5	@MIN	122–108	45-92	19-45	13-15	15	16	124.5	111.3	97.5
Apr 3	IND	129–108	46-96	24-49	13-15	9	12	130.3	109.1	99.0
Apr 2	PHX	127–107	48-93	18-49	13-15	10	11	132.3	112.6	95.5

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	@NYK	97–111	37-87	9-37	14-24	14	15	100.0	114.4	97.0
Oct 25	@PHI	106–93	38-87	14-34	16-25	15	15	110.4	97.9	95.5
Oct 23	@MIA	128–111	47-89	18-38	16-20	19	12	125.5	107.8	102.5
Oct 20	BOS	121–113	39-86	15-40	28-32	17	14	119.8	113.0	100.5
May 17	CLE	94–125	30-85	12-39	22-29	14	10	94.0	125.0	100.0
May 15	@CLE	115–94	43-82	16-36	13-19	17	13	122.3	100.0	94.0
May 13	CLE	113–117	42-95	11-33	18-20	10	15	116.5	118.2	88.8
May 11	@CLE	103–112	42-83	10-23	9-12	18	11	110.8	120.4	93.0
May 9	@CLE	109–116	41-91	9-25	18-22	15	17	114.7	119.6	96.0
May 7	CLE	107–97	39-80	14-28	15-20	10	12	118.9	107.8	90.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

56%

pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner

DET was the forecast favorite

6 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual +8 for DET

61st

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

94th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	DET
Final score	89	97
Field goals	31–71 · 43.7%	34–76 · 44.7%
Three-pointers	12–35 · 34.3%	13–33 · 39.4%
Free throws	15–19 · 78.9%	16–20 · 80.0%
Rebounds	45	33
Assists	17	26
Turnovers	23	13
Steals	7	13
Blocks	5	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Detroit Pistons

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DET)	+2	+8	+6
Total points	220	186	−34
CHA points	109	89	−20
DET points	111	97	−14

Recent form before this game