2026-27 · Regular Season · Scheduled

Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks

Monday, November 9, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

LAL 9–2@ATL 7–4 records going into the game

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	115	–
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home)	117	–

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ATL

Home court+2.1 ATLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+2.8 LALElo ATL 1546, LAL 1604; season margin ATL +2.2, LAL +4.6.
Player availability+1.7 ATLLAL without Austin Reaves (26 ppg) and Quentin Grimes (8 ppg).
Recent form+0.7 ATLLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: ATL scores 114.3 and allows 111.1; LAL scores 121.2 and allows 115.2.

Together: ATL by 2, a 55% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ATL is 7–4, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 116). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 45% of their season margin. Their offense makes 14 free throws per 100 shots (league 23), which alone costs about 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +2.0, offensive rebounding +1.1. Their defense forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (league 13.2%), which alone adds about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −2.0.

LAL is 9–2, winning by 7 a game on average (scoring 122, allowing 114). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 45% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 59% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +2.2, ball security −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +4, defensive rebounding −1.6. Austin Reaves and Quentin Grimes are out (33 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ATL; left favors LAL.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.9. The 55% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	LAL	ATL	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1604	1546	+0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+12		−2.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.6	+2.2	−0.3
Games played this season	11	11	−0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	121.2	114.3	−0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.2	111.1	+0.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.4		+1.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	33.3	0.0	+1.7
Rest days	1	2	−0.0
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	ATL pts	LAL pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	11.9	−1.17	+1.23	−2.40
Combined pace, last 10	101.4	+3.31	+2.35	+0.96
Rotation points missing (away)	33.3	+0.01	−0.92	+0.93
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	121.2	+0.04	+0.90	−0.86
Rotation points missing (home)	0.0	+0.67	−0.11	+0.78
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	111.1	−0.61	−1.21	+0.61
Season scoring margin (away)	4.6	−0.41	+0.14	−0.55
Games played (away)	11.0	+0.06	+0.58	−0.53
Elo rating (home)	1546.0	+0.06	−0.39	+0.45
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	114.3	+0.19	−0.15	+0.34
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	115.2	−0.30	+0.03	−0.34
Season scoring margin (home)	2.2	+0.25	+0.05	+0.20
Elo rating (away)	1604.0	+0.14	−0.05	+0.19
Home series wins	0.0	+0.32	+0.14	+0.18
Games played (home)	11.0	−0.09	+0.09	−0.18
Rest days (away)	1.0	+0.02	+0.04	−0.02
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.01	±0.00	+0.01
Rest days (home)	2.0	+0.02	+0.01	+0.01
Elimination game	0	+0.00	−0.00	+0.00
Back-to-back (away)	1	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Series pressure	0.0	+0.04	+0.04	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1604ATL15461.8 pts toward LAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1604

Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
First 1 games: +7.5
Last 10 games: +32.3

WLAC125–117+5.9
W@UTA132–123+4.5
LPOR129–136−12.2
W@LAC103–87+15.5
L@GSW95–112−17.4
WTOR131–125+5.4
WMIA138–117+9.1
W@SAC116–103+6.0
WPOR124–118+5.0
W@DET121–116+10.5

ATL1546

Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
First 1 games: +11.1
Last 10 games: +8.8

W@CHA128–81+48.4
LHOU114–121−10.8
L@HOU110–120−7.3
LMIA117–129−19.4
WCLE114–111+4.7
L@NOP99–121−22.7
W@IND108–104+4.1
W@WAS120–105+8.1
WWAS139–132+2.3
WBKN124–121+1.4

Season scoring marginLAL+4.6ATL+2.21.1 pts toward LAL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+4.6

Scores 121.9, allows 114.5 over 11 games: +7.5 a game.

55% this season (+7.5) + 45% last season (+1.0) = +4.6

ATL+2.2

Scores 118.6, allows 115.5 over 11 games: +3.2 a game.

55% this season (+3.2) + 45% last season (+1.1) = +2.2

Offensive rating, last 10LAL121.2ATL114.30.5 pts toward LAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

LAL121.2scored, +8.8 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	53.3%	+7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.1%	13.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.5%	27.3%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.301	0.226	+2.2
Everything else			+0.1

ATL114.3scored, +1.9 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	53.3%	−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	13.2%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.7%	27.3%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.144	0.226	−2.3
Everything else			+2.0

Defensive rating, last 10LAL115.2ATL111.10.3 pts toward ATL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

LAL115.2allowed, +2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	53.3%	−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.8%	13.2%	+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.8%	27.3%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.254	0.226	−0.8
Everything else			−0.4

ATL111.1allowed, −1.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	53.3%	−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.1%	13.2%	+2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.5%	27.3%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.236	0.226	−0.3
Everything else			+1.5

Pace, last 10average 101.41.0 pts toward ATL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 100.0 and ATL 102.8 → average 101.4 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingLAL33.3ATL0.01.7 pts toward ATL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL33.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Austin Reaves	25.5	36.6	10
Quentin Grimes	7.8	25.9	10

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestLAL1 daysATL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 8 against DET.

ATL2days

Last played Nov 7 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 8	@DET	121–116	42-84	11-28	26-33	14	12	124.7	119.6	97.0
Nov 6	POR	124–118	42-93	11-37	29-37	11	17	124.0	120.4	99.0
Nov 4	@SAC	116–103	35-78	12-38	34-38	11	10	114.9	104.0	100.0
Nov 2	MIA	138–117	51-89	19-43	17-24	16	10	135.3	114.7	102.0
Nov 1	TOR	131–125	43-80	18-37	27-32	22	9	123.6	116.8	106.5
Oct 30	@GSW	95–112	33-82	11-39	18-24	20	16	102.2	119.1	93.5
Oct 28	@LAC	103–87	35-79	9-31	24-33	19	17	105.1	89.7	97.5
Oct 27	POR	129–136	45-80	17-43	22-30	15	6	129.0	133.3	101.0
Oct 25	@UTA	132–123	40-82	20-47	32-38	10	5	130.7	120.6	101.5
Oct 23	LAC	125–117	46-79	14-32	19-25	21	8	122.5	113.6	102.5

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 7	BKN	124–121	47-105	12-46	18-25	12	15	115.9	113.1	107.0
Nov 6	WAS	139–132	52-98	16-37	19-20	16	14	132.4	124.5	105.5
Nov 4	@WAS	120–105	45-101	19-49	11-14	15	19	118.8	105.0	100.5
Nov 2	@IND	108–104	40-103	23-51	5-8	16	17	106.9	104.0	100.5
Oct 31	@NOP	99–121	35-91	8-46	21-23	19	14	94.3	114.2	105.5
Oct 29	CLE	114–111	42-95	17-43	13-18	11	15	116.3	113.3	98.0
Oct 28	MIA	117–129	46-96	16-38	9-14	15	9	109.3	120.6	107.0
Oct 26	@HOU	110–120	42-98	11-39	15-21	13	13	105.8	114.3	104.5
Oct 24	HOU	114–121	43-96	13-49	15-21	13	17	115.2	121.0	99.5
Oct 23	@CHA	128–81	48-95	18-45	14-22	12	12	128.0	81.0	100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

More about this game

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.