The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 1

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

TOR 3–2@LAL 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: TOR 47 percent, LAL 53 percent. TOR Raptors 47% proj. 113 · final 125 LAL Lakers · home 53% proj. 114 · final 131
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
TOR Toronto Raptors 113 125 +12
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 114 131 +17

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputTORLAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15471568
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +91
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.5+2.3
Games played this season 56
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.5115.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 107.2118.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 19.511.3
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1547LAL1568

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1547

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. This season's 5 games: +6.2
  • WCHI135–92+10.0
  • W@WAS112–102+4.6
  • L@MIN94–117−11.6
  • WORL129–99+15.5
  • LORL114–121−12.3

LAL1568

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 6 games: +3.8
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
  • WLAC125–117+5.9
  • W@UTA132–123+4.5
  • LPOR129–136−12.2
  • W@LAC103–87+15.5
  • L@GSW95–112−17.4
Season scoring marginTOR+4.5LAL+2.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+4.5

Scores 116.8, allows 106.2 over 5 games: +10.6 a game.

25% this season (+10.6) + 75% last season (+2.5) = +4.5

LAL+2.3

Scores 118.5, allows 113.3 over 6 games: +5.2 a game.

30% this season (+5.2) + 70% last season (+1.0) = +2.3

Offensive rating, last 10TOR113.5LAL115.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR113.5scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.2%54.5%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%26.1%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.210+0.1
Everything else+1.3

LAL115.1scored, +0.5 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.5%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)16.0%12.2%−5.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2620.210+1.5
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10TOR107.2LAL118.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR107.2allowed, −7.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)16.4%12.2%+5.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.6%26.1%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2790.210−2.0
Everything else+0.8

LAL118.1allowed, +3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%54.5%−3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%12.2%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210−0.4
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 99.4 and LAL 97.9 → average 98.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingTOR19.5LAL11.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR19.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kawhi Leonard19.525.82

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAL11.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ziaire Williams11.228.44

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestTOR2 daysLAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR2days

Last played Oct 30 against ORL.

LAL2days

Last played Oct 30 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30ORL114–12146-9111-2711-151115125.3131.591.5
Oct 28ORL129–9944-8815-3526-31148125.298.0102.0
Oct 25@MIN94–11735-9110-3814-21161495.9118.298.5
Oct 23@WAS112–10244-1017-3417-211619104.795.3107.0
Oct 21CHI135–9244-9810-3137-461016122.782.1111.0
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9
Apr 29@CLE120–12544-9515-3817-251415118.8122.5101.5
Apr 26CLE93–8931-974-3027-36112194.991.897.5
Apr 23CLE126–10450-8714-2312-211111132.6108.395.5

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@GSW95–11233-8211-3918-242016102.2119.193.5
Oct 28@LAC103–8735-799-3124-331917105.189.797.5
Oct 27POR129–13645-8017-4322-30156129.0133.3101.0
Oct 25@UTA132–12340-8220-4732-38105130.7120.6101.5
Oct 23LAC125–11746-7914-3219-25218122.5113.6102.5
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
LAL was the forecast favorite
5 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +6 for LAL
52nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
102nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statTORLAL
Final score125131
Field goals45–105 · 42.9%43–80 · 53.8%
Three-pointers17–54 · 31.5%18–37 · 48.6%
Free throws18–25 · 72.0%27–32 · 84.4%
Rebounds4745
Assists3526
Turnovers1522
Steals1411
Blocks17

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Los Angeles Lakers

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+1+6+5
Total points227256+29
TOR points113125+12
LAL points114131+17

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs ORL L 114–121
Oct 28 vs ORL W 129–99
Oct 25 at MIN L 94–117
Oct 23 at WAS W 112–102
Oct 21 vs CHI W 135–92

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at GSW L 95–112
Oct 28 at LAC W 103–87
Oct 27 vs POR L 129–136
Oct 25 at UTA W 132–123
Oct 23 vs LAC W 125–117

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Jan 18 2025-26 TOR at LAL TOR 93 – 110 LAL
Dec 4 2025-26 LAL at TOR LAL 123 – 120 TOR
Nov 10 2024-25 TOR at LAL TOR 103 – 123 LAL
Nov 1 2024-25 LAL at TOR LAL 131 – 125 TOR
Apr 2 2023-24 LAL at TOR LAL 128 – 111 TOR