The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

ATL 3–3@NOP 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 64 percent, NOP 36 percent. ATL Hawks 64% proj. 123 · final 99 NOP Pelicans · home 36% proj. 118 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 123 99 −24
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 118 121 +3

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLNOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15531407
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −76
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.1−3.9
Games played this season 65
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.8113.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.8116.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.033.3
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1553NOP1407

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1553

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 6 games: +26.7
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1
  • W@CHA128–81+48.4
  • LHOU114–121−10.8
  • L@HOU110–120−7.3
  • LMIA117–129−19.4
  • WCLE114–111+4.7

NOP1407

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 5 games: −17.3
  • LIND120–123−8.2
  • L@UTA119–120−4.4
  • L@DEN135–141−2.5
  • LDEN91–104−9.0
  • WSAC132–120+6.8
Season scoring marginATL+2.1NOP−3.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+2.1

Scores 119.2, allows 114.5 over 6 games: +4.7 a game.

30% this season (+4.7) + 70% last season (+1.1) = +2.1

NOP−3.9

Scores 119.4, allows 121.6 over 5 games: −2.2 a game.

25% this season (−2.2) + 75% last season (−4.5) = −3.9

Offensive rating, last 10ATL109.8NOP113.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.5%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1810.210−0.8
Everything else+0.4

NOP113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.5%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2600.210+1.4
Everything else+1.5
Defensive rating, last 10ATL116.8NOP116.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL116.8allowed, +2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.5%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.2%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2490.210−1.1
Everything else+0.5

NOP116.4allowed, +1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.7%54.5%−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2340.210−0.7
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 103.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 100.8 and NOP 106.2 → average 103.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingATL0.0NOP33.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

NOP33.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Dejounte Murray17.832.34
Yves Missi9.519.62
Jordan Poole6.015.94

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysNOP2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Oct 29 against CLE.

NOP2days

Last played Oct 29 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29CLE114–11142-9517-4313-181115116.3113.398.0
Oct 28MIA117–12946-9616-389-14159109.3120.6107.0
Oct 26@HOU110–12042-9811-3915-211313105.8114.3104.5
Oct 24HOU114–12143-9613-4915-211317115.2121.099.5
Oct 23@CHA128–8148-9518-4514-221212128.081.0100.0
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0
Apr 23NYK109–10839-8613-3318-261613107.9106.9101.0

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29SAC132–12050-8510-2922-32205118.9108.1111.0
Oct 28DEN91–10434-827-3016-2219890.1104.0100.5
Oct 24@DEN135–14150-9911-3824-301814116.4119.5106.0
Oct 23@UTA119–12044-878-2623-27159116.7117.6102.0
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0
Apr 7UTA156–13761-10614-3420-23168127.9112.3122.0
Apr 5ORL108–11235-8410-3128-36159102.9107.7104.5
Apr 3@SAC113–11740-8414-3419-21137115.3118.298.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
36%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
27 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual +22 for NOP
15th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
12th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.03 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLNOP
Final score99121
Field goals35–91 · 38.5%43–76 · 56.6%
Three-pointers8–46 · 17.4%7–17 · 41.2%
Free throws21–23 · 91.3%28–35 · 80.0%
Rebounds3649
Assists2027
Turnovers1923
Steals1115
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · New Orleans Pelicans

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)−5+22+27
Total points241220−21
ATL points12399−24
NOP points118121+3

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 vs CLE W 114–111
Oct 28 vs MIA L 117–129
Oct 26 at HOU L 110–120
Oct 24 vs HOU L 114–121
Oct 23 at CHA W 128–81

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 vs SAC W 132–120
Oct 28 vs DEN L 91–104
Oct 24 at DEN L 135–141
Oct 23 at UTA L 119–120
Oct 21 vs IND L 120–123

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Jan 7 2025-26 NOP at ATL NOP 100 – 117 ATL
Nov 22 2025-26 ATL at NOP ATL 115 – 98 NOP
Dec 2 2024-25 NOP at ATL NOP 112 – 124 ATL
Nov 3 2024-25 ATL at NOP ATL 126 – 111 NOP
Mar 10 2023-24 NOP at ATL NOP 116 – 103 ATL