The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 9

2026-27 · Regular Season · Scheduled

Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks

Monday, November 9, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

IND 3–7@DAL 6–4 records going into the game

Win probability as a share of the court: IND 24 percent, DAL 76 percent. IND Pacers 24% proj. 109 DAL Mavericks · home 76% proj. 119
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinal
IND Indiana Pacers 109 –
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 119 –

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DAL

  • Home court+2.1 DALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+3.5 DALElo DAL 1442, IND 1351; season margin DAL −0.3, IND −5.9.
  • Recent form+2.9 DALLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DAL scores 114.2 and allows 109.4; IND scores 108.7 and allows 112.4.
  • Player availability+1.1 DALIND without Tyrese Haliburton (22 ppg).

Together: DAL by 10, a 76% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DAL is 6–4, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 109). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 1.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.1. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

IND is 3–7, losing by 4 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 114). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 20% of its own misses (league 27%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 12.1% of opponent possessions (league 13.2%), which alone costs about 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Tyrese Haliburton (22 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DAL; left favors IND.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +3.5, Recent form +2.9, Player availability +1.1, Rest and schedule −0.4, No playoff context +0.2, giving +9.4 for DAL. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +3.5 Recent form +2.9 Player availability +1.1 Rest and schedule −0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Projected margin +9.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +9.4. The 76% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputINDDALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13511442 +0.8
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +161 +1.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.9−0.3 +1.5
Games played this season 1010 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.7114.2 +1.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.4109.4 +0.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.6 +0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 21.80.0 +1.1
Rest days 21 −0.4
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueDAL ptsIND ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court161.4+1.04−0.87+1.92
Season scoring margin (away)-5.9+0.55−1.11+1.66
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)108.7−0.06−1.43+1.38
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)109.4−0.48−1.68+1.20
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.67−0.12+0.79
Elo rating (away)1351.0+0.67−0.08+0.75
Combined pace, last 10100.6+2.25+1.71+0.54
Games played (away)10.0−0.04+0.43−0.47
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)112.4−0.43−0.07−0.37
Rest days (home)1.0−0.15+0.20−0.35
Rotation points missing (away)21.8+0.09−0.20+0.28
Games played (home)10.0−0.18+0.09−0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.04+0.20
Season scoring margin (home)-0.3+0.06+0.23−0.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)114.2+0.04−0.10+0.14
Elo rating (home)1442.4−0.05−0.15+0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.02+0.03
Back-to-back (home)1−0.03±0.00−0.03
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0+0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1351DAL14422.8 pts toward DAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1351

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 10 games: −23.3
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
  • LDAL105–121−17.8
  • W@BKN136–109+21.5
  • L@MIL102–110−7.8
  • LPHI109–114−4.9
  • L@MIA125–145−7.3
  • LBKN90–98−14.6
  • LATL104–108−4.1
  • W@MEM107–103+9.8
  • LDEN102–114−6.3

DAL1442

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 10 games: +54.6
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9
  • W@IND121–105+17.8
  • LSAS106–122−5.7
  • W@MIA113–109+10.3
  • WOKC120–96+36.4
  • WHOU116–111+9.8
  • LSAC100–115−24.4
  • L@SAS111–112−0.8
  • WUTA112–100+4.9
  • WBKN130–93+11.2
Season scoring marginIND−5.9DAL−0.30.8 pts toward DAL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−5.9

Scores 110.3, allows 114.2 over 10 games: −3.9 a game.

50% this season (−3.9) + 50% last season (−8.0) = −5.9

DAL−0.3

Scores 113.9, allows 109.1 over 10 games: +4.8 a game.

50% this season (+4.8) + 50% last season (−5.3) = −0.3

Offensive rating, last 10IND108.7DAL114.21.5 pts toward DAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

IND108.7scored, −3.6 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%53.3%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%13.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.4%27.3%−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.226−0.5
Everything else−0.6

DAL114.2scored, +1.8 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%53.3%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%13.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.7%27.3%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.226−0.6
Everything else+0.0
Defensive rating, last 10IND112.4DAL109.40.8 pts toward DAL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

IND112.4allowed, +0.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%53.3%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%13.2%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%27.3%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.226+0.3
Everything else+0.5

DAL109.4allowed, −3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%53.3%+3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%13.2%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.7%27.3%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.226+0.6
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 100.60.5 pts toward DAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 101.4 and DAL 99.8 → average 100.6 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingIND21.8DAL0.01.1 pts toward DAL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND21.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Tyrese Haliburton21.833.04

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 11:00 ET. 11 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 11:00 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestIND2 daysDAL1 days0.4 pts toward IND

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND2days

Last played Nov 7 against DEN.

DAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 8 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 7DEN102–11441-9215-485-7106104.1116.398.0
Nov 4@MEM107–10340-8812-3715-17158104.9100.0102.5
Nov 2ATL104–10838-808-3420-23185104.0106.9100.5
Nov 1BKN90–9828-7013-3521-3014997.8106.592.0
Oct 30@MIA125–14544-9117-3720-271314119.0139.4104.5
Oct 28PHI109–11436-879-3628-351513106.9110.7102.5
Oct 26@MIL102–11039-9613-4811-18131499.0104.8104.0
Oct 25@BKN136–10949-8521-4317-22144129.5103.8105.0
Oct 23DAL105–12139-887-3220-281913105.0121.0100.0
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 8BKN130–9348-8414-3520-222012131.393.099.5
Nov 6UTA112–10039-939-3225-311521109.899.0101.5
Nov 4@SAS111–11239-10214-3719-26818112.1114.398.5
Nov 2SAC100–11532-787-3329-351610103.1119.896.5
Oct 30HOU116–11142-8112-3320-271712116.0109.9100.5
Oct 28OKC120–9646-9716-4512-15915122.498.098.0
Oct 26@MIA113–10943-9414-4613-141613110.8105.8102.5
Oct 24SAS106–12245-8711-285-8188103.9118.4102.5
Oct 23@IND121–10544-8814-3419-231411121.0105.0100.0
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

More about this game

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-09 11:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Indiana Pacers

  • Out Ben Sheppard · Left Meniscus Surgery
  • Out Johnny Furphy
  • Out Tyrese Haliburton · Left Hamstring Strain
  • Questionable T.J. McConnell · Right Hamstring Strain

Dallas Mavericks

No players listed.

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 7 vs DEN L 102–114
Nov 4 at MEM W 107–103
Nov 2 vs ATL L 104–108
Nov 1 vs BKN L 90–98
Oct 30 at MIA L 125–145

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 8 vs BKN W 130–93
Nov 6 vs UTA W 112–100
Nov 4 at SAS L 111–112
Nov 2 vs SAC L 100–115
Oct 30 vs HOU W 116–111

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Oct 23 2026-27 DAL at IND DAL 121 – 105 IND
Feb 22 2025-26 DAL at IND DAL 134 – 130 IND
Oct 29 2025-26 IND at DAL IND 105 – 107 DAL
Mar 19 2024-25 DAL at IND DAL 131 – 135 IND
Nov 4 2024-25 IND at DAL IND 134 – 127 DAL