2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 0–6@DAL 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	114	115	+1
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	123	100	−23

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1321	1451
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+201
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−12.7	−3.0
Games played this season	6	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.0	115.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.5	114.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	7.0	21.4
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1321DAL1451

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1321

Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
This season's 6 games: −48.6

L@LAC96–121−6.8
LPOR120–128−6.0
LMEM112–123−14.2
L@SAS103–130−2.6
L@NOP120–132−6.8
L@MEM105–136−12.2

DAL1451

Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
This season's 6 games: +63.7

L@HOU110–128−4.9
W@IND121–105+17.8
LSAS106–122−5.7
W@MIA113–109+10.3
WOKC120–96+36.4
WHOU116–111+9.8

Season scoring marginSAC−12.7DAL−3.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−12.7

Scores 109.3, allows 128.3 over 6 games: −19.0 a game.

30% this season (−19.0) + 70% last season (−10.0) = −12.7

DAL−3.0

Scores 114.3, allows 111.8 over 6 games: +2.5 a game.

30% this season (+2.5) + 70% last season (−5.3) = −3.0

Offensive rating, last 10SAC108.0DAL115.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC108.0scored, −6.6 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.5%	−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.0%	12.2%	−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.1%	26.1%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			−1.3

DAL115.0scored, +0.5 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.5%	+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.5%	26.1%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			±0.0

Defensive rating, last 10SAC122.5DAL114.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC122.5allowed, +7.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.4%	54.5%	−7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.2%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	26.1%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.232	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			−0.9

DAL114.8allowed, +0.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	54.5%	+2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.3%	26.1%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.210	+0.4
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 102.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 102.5 and DAL 101.4 → average 102.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAC7.0DAL21.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC7.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Keegan Murray	7.0	27.2	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DAL21.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kyrie Irving	21.4	28.6	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysDAL3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 31 against MEM.

DAL3days

Last played Oct 30 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 31	@MEM	105–136	35-86	11-38	24-29	13	7	100.0	128.3	105.5
Oct 29	@NOP	120–132	46-88	12-37	16-20	25	7	108.1	118.9	111.0
Oct 27	@SAS	103–130	40-93	13-37	10-13	13	13	103.0	130.0	100.0
Oct 25	MEM	112–123	44-95	10-33	14-22	13	16	113.1	121.8	100.0
Oct 23	POR	120–128	42-91	8-32	28-30	14	10	113.2	120.8	106.0
Oct 21	@LAC	96–121	36-85	8-28	16-28	17	11	91.4	116.3	104.5
Apr 12	@POR	110–122	40-83	7-21	23-31	16	15	112.2	123.2	98.5
Apr 10	GSW	124–118	41-89	17-44	25-34	16	16	121.6	115.7	102.0
Apr 7	@GSW	105–110	41-87	11-31	12-17	14	13	111.7	114.6	95.0
Apr 5	LAC	109–138	45-85	9-32	10-20	20	11	105.8	135.3	102.5

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 30	HOU	116–111	42-81	12-33	20-27	17	12	116.0	109.9	100.5
Oct 28	OKC	120–96	46-97	16-45	12-15	9	15	122.4	98.0	98.0
Oct 26	@MIA	113–109	43-94	14-46	13-14	16	13	110.8	105.8	102.5
Oct 24	SAS	106–122	45-87	11-28	5-8	18	8	103.9	118.4	102.5
Oct 23	@IND	121–105	44-88	14-34	19-23	14	11	121.0	105.0	100.0
Oct 21	@HOU	110–128	41-80	11-38	17-26	21	8	111.1	130.6	98.5
Apr 12	CHI	149–128	52-100	22-49	23-27	18	15	134.2	114.3	111.5
Apr 10	@SAS	120–139	45-98	15-40	15-19	7	12	121.2	139.0	99.5
Apr 8	@PHX	107–112	37-89	13-36	20-22	8	10	112.6	117.9	95.0
Apr 7	@LAC	103–116	35-100	6-33	27-28	8	14	97.2	109.4	106.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored DAL

24 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −15 for DAL

6th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

19th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	DAL
Final score	115	100
Field goals	43–82 · 52.4%	32–78 · 41.0%
Three-pointers	19–43 · 44.2%	7–33 · 21.2%
Free throws	10–15 · 66.7%	29–35 · 82.9%
Rebounds	42	35
Assists	25	19
Turnovers	17	16
Steals	9	11
Blocks	4	1

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Dallas Mavericks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	+9	−15	−24
Total points	237	215	−22
SAC points	114	115	+1
DAL points	123	100	−23

Recent form before this game