The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 9

2026-27 · Regular Season · Scheduled

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets

Monday, November 9, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

DEN 5–3@HOU 7–3 records going into the game

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 39 percent, HOU 61 percent. DEN Nuggets 39% proj. 110 HOU Rockets · home 61% proj. 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinal
DEN Denver Nuggets 110 –
HOU Houston Rockets (home) 114 –

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

  • Home court+2.1 HOUWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+0.8 HOUElo HOU 1608, DEN 1578; season margin HOU +6.8, DEN +3.5.

Together: HOU by 4, a 61% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU is 7–3, winning by 9 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 107). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 56% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.8. Their defense allows 17 free throws per 100 opponent shots (league 23), which alone adds about 1.6 points per 100 possessions.

DEN is 5–3, winning by 2 a game on average (scoring 115, allowing 113). Last season they were a +4 team, which still counts for 60% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 56% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.7. Their defense allows 17 free throws per 100 opponent shots (league 23), which alone adds about 1.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.3, defensive rebounding −1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors HOU; left favors DEN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +0.8, No playoff context +0.2, Recent form +0.2, Player availability +0.0, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +3.3 for HOU. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +0.8 No playoff context +0.2 Recent form +0.2 Player availability +0.0 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +3.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +3.3. The 61% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDENHOUEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15781608 +0.4
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +100 +0.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.5+6.8 +0.4
Games played this season 810 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.8118.6 +0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.8109.4 +0.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0 −0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueHOU ptsDEN ptsMargin
Combined pace, last 1098.0−1.88−0.98−0.90
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)109.4−0.58−1.46+0.88
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.66−0.13+0.78
Elo gap incl. home court99.8+0.30−0.46+0.76
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.30+0.44−0.74
Season scoring margin (home)6.8+0.04−0.61+0.65
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)118.6+0.71+0.19+0.52
Games played (away)8.0+0.09+0.60−0.51
Elo rating (home)1608.0+0.04−0.27+0.31
Season scoring margin (away)3.5−0.08+0.18−0.27
Games played (home)10.0−0.14+0.11−0.24
Home series wins0.0+0.21+0.04+0.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.8+0.04+0.20−0.16
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)113.8−0.21−0.06−0.14
Elo rating (away)1578.2+0.09−0.04+0.13
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.05−0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.02+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01±0.00+0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.00
Elimination game0+0.00+0.01−0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1578HOU16081.2 pts toward HOU

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1578

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
  2. This season's 8 games: −13.0
  • L@OKC84–96−5.4
  • WNOP141–135+2.5
  • LGSW114–134−32.3
  • W@NOP104–91+9.0
  • W@PHX127–120+8.7
  • LPOR110–118−13.3
  • WTOR128–109+11.5
  • W@IND114–102+6.3

HOU1608

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 10 games: +41.9
  • WDAL128–110+4.9
  • W@SAS114–110+11.1
  • W@ATL121–114+10.8
  • WATL120–110+7.3
  • W@MIL132–100+11.2
  • L@DAL111–116−9.8
  • WOKC119–98+17.0
  • WBOS109–93+10.8
  • LMIN107–117−14.6
  • L@PHX99–102−6.8
Season scoring marginDEN+3.5HOU+6.80.4 pts toward DEN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+3.5

Scores 115.2, allows 113.1 over 8 games: +2.1 a game.

40% this season (+2.1) + 60% last season (+4.5) = +3.5

HOU+6.8

Scores 116.0, allows 107.0 over 10 games: +9.0 a game.

50% this season (+9.0) + 50% last season (+4.7) = +6.8

Offensive rating, last 10DEN114.8HOU118.60.4 pts toward HOU

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

DEN114.8scored, +2.5 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%53.3%+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%13.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%27.3%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2570.226+0.9
Everything else−1.4

HOU118.6scored, +6.2 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%53.3%+3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%13.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.2%27.3%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2440.226+0.5
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10DEN113.8HOU109.40.7 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

DEN113.8allowed, +1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%53.3%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%13.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.1%27.3%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.226+1.5
Everything else−0.8

HOU109.4allowed, −3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%53.3%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%13.2%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.0%27.3%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1710.226+1.6
Everything else+0.0
Pace, last 10average 98.00.9 pts toward DEN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 98.3 and HOU 97.8 → average 98.0 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0HOU0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 11:00 ET. 8 rotation players.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 11:00 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysHOU2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played Nov 7 against IND.

HOU2days

Last played Nov 7 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 7@IND114–10244-9610-3516-1939116.3104.198.0
Nov 4TOR128–10948-789-2323-27157130.6112.497.5
Nov 2POR110–11836-779-2629-34129113.4122.996.5
Oct 30@PHX127–12042-8020-3723-301812129.6122.498.0
Oct 28@NOP104–9137-8012-3118-19175104.090.1100.5
Oct 26GSW114–13442-8410-2920-231110117.5139.696.5
Oct 24NOP141–13548-9915-4730-391114119.5116.4106.0
Oct 22@OKC84–9631-828-3014-22221989.4102.194.0
Apr 30@MIN98–11034-7510-2720-25136105.4118.393.0
Apr 27MIN125–11347-8311-2920-25165122.5109.7102.5

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 7@PHX99–10236-9410-3517-191415105.3107.494.5
Nov 4MIN107–11735-8213-3724-301814110.3119.497.5
Nov 2BOS109–9343-7914-359-13139121.1104.589.5
Oct 31OKC119–9841-9018-4119-231013126.6104.394.0
Oct 30@DAL111–11640-967-2924-331220109.9116.0100.5
Oct 28@MIL132–10046-8417-3823-26148129.498.0102.0
Oct 26ATL120–11043-818-2726-322112114.3105.8104.5
Oct 24@ATL121–11443-8914-3521-231413121.0115.299.5
Oct 23@SAS114–11038-7810-2528-31158117.5112.297.5
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

More about this game

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-09 11:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Denver Nuggets

  • Out Julian Strawther · Left Knee Sprain
  • Questionable Aaron Gordon
  • Questionable Cameron Johnson
  • Questionable Christian Braun
  • Questionable DeMar DeRozan · Low Back Spasms
  • Questionable Jamal Murray
  • Questionable Nikola Jokić · Right Elbow Sprain

Houston Rockets

  • Out Clint Capela · Right Ankle Sprain
  • Out Oscar Tshiebwe · Illness
  • Out Steven Adams · Right Soleus Strain

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 7 at IND W 114–102
Nov 4 vs TOR W 128–109
Nov 2 vs POR L 110–118
Oct 30 at PHX W 127–120
Oct 28 at NOP W 104–91

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 7 at PHX L 99–102
Nov 4 vs MIN L 107–117
Nov 2 vs BOS W 109–93
Oct 31 vs OKC W 119–98
Oct 30 at DAL L 111–116

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Mar 11 2025-26 HOU at DEN HOU 93 – 129 DEN
Dec 20 2025-26 HOU at DEN HOU 115 – 101 DEN
Dec 15 2025-26 HOU at DEN HOU 125 – 128 DEN
Nov 21 2025-26 DEN at HOU DEN 112 – 109 HOU
Apr 13 2024-25 DEN at HOU DEN 126 – 111 HOU