2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

OKC 4–1@HOU 5–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	109	98	−11
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	110	119	+9

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	OKC	HOU
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1673	1602
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+8.9	+6.6
Games played this season	5	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	107.7	114.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.6	107.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	41.3	23.5
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1673HOU1602

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1673

Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
This season's 5 games: −9.2

W@SAS116–104+15.8
WDEN96–84+5.4
WLAC108–101+2.8
WPHX125–114+3.2
L@DAL96–120−36.4

HOU1602

Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
This season's 6 games: +35.5

WDAL128–110+4.9
W@SAS114–110+11.1
W@ATL121–114+10.8
WATL120–110+7.3
W@MIL132–100+11.2
L@DAL111–116−9.8

Season scoring marginOKC+8.9HOU+6.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+8.9

Scores 108.2, allows 104.6 over 5 games: +3.6 a game.

25% this season (+3.6) + 75% last season (+10.7) = +8.9

HOU+6.6

Scores 121.0, allows 110.0 over 6 games: +11.0 a game.

30% this season (+11.0) + 70% last season (+4.7) = +6.6

Offensive rating, last 10OKC107.7HOU114.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC107.7scored, −6.9 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.4%	54.5%	−7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.2%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.6%	26.1%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.210	+0.4
Everything else			−0.3

HOU114.4scored, −0.2 vs league

Factor	HOU	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.5%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	26.1%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.259	0.210	+1.4
Everything else			−1.0

Defensive rating, last 10OKC109.6HOU107.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC109.6allowed, −5.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.2%	54.5%	+6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	12.2%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.2%	26.1%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			−1.6

HOU107.7allowed, −6.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	54.5%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.6%	12.2%	+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.7%	26.1%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.210	−0.0
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 98.7 and HOU 97.3 → average 98.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC41.3HOU23.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC41.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Williams	13.7	31.6	3
Chet Holmgren	12.0	29.9	3
Alex Caruso	9.2	18.9	4
Cason Wallace	6.3	16.3	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

HOU23.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Fred VanVleet	13.0	30.4	5
Reed Sheppard	10.5	23.3	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestOKC3 daysHOU1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC3days

Last played Oct 28 against DAL.

HOU1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 30 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	@DAL	96–120	36-87	5-32	19-23	13	12	98.0	122.4	98.0
Oct 26	PHX	125–114	44-86	12-32	25-29	16	12	127.6	117.5	97.5
Oct 25	LAC	108–101	42-94	8-24	16-17	16	15	105.9	99.0	102.0
Oct 22	DEN	96–84	36-95	11-43	13-14	12	16	102.1	89.4	94.0
Oct 20	@SAS	116–104	43-95	14-31	16-20	11	10	113.7	102.0	102.0
May 30	SAS	103–111	37-83	12-35	17-22	13	10	109.6	120.7	93.0
May 28	@SAS	91–118	35-94	10-40	11-12	12	12	91.0	119.2	99.5
May 26	SAS	127–114	40-83	14-32	33-38	16	14	124.5	112.9	101.5
May 24	@SAS	82–103	30-91	6-33	16-18	17	11	80.4	102.0	101.5
May 22	@SAS	123–108	39-81	17-38	28-33	10	7	124.2	111.3	98.0

HOU

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 30	@DAL	111–116	40-96	7-29	24-33	12	20	109.9	116.0	100.5
Oct 28	@MIL	132–100	46-84	17-38	23-26	14	8	129.4	98.0	102.0
Oct 26	ATL	120–110	43-81	8-27	26-32	21	12	114.3	105.8	104.5
Oct 24	@ATL	121–114	43-89	14-35	21-23	14	13	121.0	115.2	99.5
Oct 23	@SAS	114–110	38-78	10-25	28-31	15	8	117.5	112.2	97.5
Oct 21	DAL	128–110	47-88	16-36	18-25	15	17	130.6	111.1	98.5
May 1	LAL	78–98	28-80	5-28	17-24	11	8	83.9	106.5	92.5
Apr 29	@LAL	99–93	33-75	14-40	19-25	10	6	110.0	103.3	90.0
Apr 26	LAL	115–96	39-81	12-30	25-31	13	11	122.3	103.2	93.5
Apr 24	LAL	108–112	40-98	11-39	17-23	15	18	104.9	105.7	94.6

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

53%

pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner

HOU was the forecast favorite

20 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual +21 for HOU

52nd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

26th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	OKC	HOU
Final score	98	119
Field goals	37–85 · 43.5%	41–90 · 45.6%
Three-pointers	10–32 · 31.3%	18–41 · 43.9%
Free throws	14–15 · 93.3%	19–23 · 82.6%
Rebounds	42	44
Assists	20	29
Turnovers	13	10
Steals	8	5
Blocks	4	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Houston Rockets

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	+1	+21	+20
Total points	219	217	−2
OKC points	109	98	−11
HOU points	110	119	+9

Recent form before this game