2026-27 · Regular Season · Scheduled

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns

Monday, November 9, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

SAS 8–2@PHX 3–5 records going into the game

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final
SAS San Antonio Spurs	118	–
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	111	–

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAS

Home court+2.1 PHXWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+8.8 SASElo PHX 1494, SAS 1711; season margin PHX −2.1, SAS +9.2.
Recent form+1.3 SASLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHX scores 114.6 and allows 121.4; SAS scores 117.4 and allows 107.3.

Together: SAS by 7, a 70% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAS is 8–2, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 108). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 11.0% of possessions (league 13.2%), which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.5, defensive rebounding +1.5. Devin Vassell (12 ppg) is out.

PHX is 3–5, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 119). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 60% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.3, getting to the line −1.2. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.6. Jordan Goodwin (8 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHX; left favors SAS.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −7.7. The 70% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	SAS	PHX	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1711	1494	−1.8
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−147		−5.0
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+9.2	−2.1	−1.9
Games played this season	10	8	−0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	117.4	114.6	+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	107.3	121.4	−2.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.3		+1.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	11.9	7.8	+0.2
Rest days	2	2	+0.0
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	PHX pts	SAS pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	-146.7	−1.80	+3.20	−5.00
Elo rating (away)	1710.7	−1.55	+0.48	−2.03
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	121.4	+0.46	+1.96	−1.49
Season scoring margin (away)	9.2	−0.74	+0.46	−1.20
Combined pace, last 10	99.3	+0.19	−0.77	+0.95
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	107.3	−0.77	+0.07	−0.85
Rotation points missing (home)	7.8	+0.67	−0.06	+0.73
Season scoring margin (home)	-2.1	−0.37	+0.33	−0.70
Rotation points missing (away)	11.9	−0.17	+0.40	−0.57
Games played (away)	10.0	+0.00	+0.19	−0.19
Elo rating (home)	1494.0	−0.10	−0.29	+0.18
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	114.6	+0.11	−0.07	+0.18
Home series wins	0.0	+0.22	+0.06	+0.16
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	117.4	+0.06	+0.17	−0.11
Games played (home)	8.0	−0.17	−0.27	+0.10
Elimination game	0	+0.01	−0.03	+0.04
Rest days (home)	2.0	+0.02	−0.00	+0.02
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.01	±0.00	+0.01
Series pressure	0.0	+0.01	+0.03	−0.01
Rest days (away)	2.0	+0.01	+0.01	±0.00
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1711PHX14946.8 pts toward SAS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1711

Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
This season's 10 games: +7.5

LOKC104–116−15.8
LHOU110–114−11.1
W@DAL122–106+5.7
WSAC130–103+2.6
W@UTA117–111+1.9
WMIN121–111+5.3
WUTA119–97+1.7
WDAL112–111+0.8
W@SAC124–109+3.6
W@POR125–103+12.8

PHX1494

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
This season's 8 games: −29.4

L@POR83–124−22.0
WGSW131–122+5.2
L@OKC114–125−3.2
LDEN120–127−8.7
L@GSW113–116−4.3
LPOR119–132−13.2
WORL117–104+10.0
WHOU102–99+6.8

Season scoring marginSAS+9.2PHX−2.12.0 pts toward SAS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+9.2

Scores 118.4, allows 108.1 over 10 games: +10.3 a game.

50% this season (+10.3) + 50% last season (+8.2) = +9.2

PHX−2.1

Scores 112.4, allows 118.6 over 8 games: −6.3 a game.

40% this season (−6.3) + 60% last season (+0.6) = −2.1

Offensive rating, last 10SAS117.4PHX114.60.1 pts toward PHX

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

SAS117.4scored, +5.0 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	53.3%	−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	13.2%	+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.8%	27.3%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.252	0.226	+0.8
Everything else			+1.6

PHX114.6scored, +2.2 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	53.3%	+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	13.2%	+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	27.3%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.183	0.226	−1.2
Everything else			+0.6

Defensive rating, last 10SAS107.3PHX121.42.3 pts toward SAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

SAS107.3allowed, −5.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.6%	53.3%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	13.2%	−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	27.3%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.226	+0.9
Everything else			+0.2

PHX121.4allowed, +9.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.5%	53.3%	−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	13.2%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.1%	27.3%	−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.258	0.226	−0.9
Everything else			−1.5

Pace, last 10average 99.31.0 pts toward PHX

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 99.9 and PHX 98.7 → average 99.3 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingSAS11.9PHX7.80.2 pts toward PHX

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS11.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Devin Vassell	11.9	30.0	10

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 20:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHX7.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jordan Goodwin	7.8	18.7	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 20:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestSAS2 daysPHX2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS2days

Last played Nov 7 against POR.

PHX2days

Last played Nov 7 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 7	@POR	125–103	40-90	17-44	28-30	16	14	117.9	99.0	105.0
Nov 6	@SAC	124–109	38-79	15-30	33-42	11	13	131.9	113.5	95.0
Nov 4	DAL	112–111	37-95	5-36	33-39	10	22	114.3	112.1	98.5
Nov 2	UTA	119–97	42-91	11-32	24-30	12	9	117.8	96.0	101.0
Oct 31	MIN	121–111	43-87	10-27	25-31	15	16	121.0	111.0	100.0
Oct 28	@UTA	117–111	44-101	12-38	17-21	11	15	108.3	102.8	97.8
Oct 27	SAC	130–103	49-90	17-37	15-19	13	9	130.0	103.0	100.0
Oct 24	@DAL	122–106	48-101	15-42	11-16	12	15	118.4	103.9	102.5
Oct 23	HOU	110–114	40-87	12-37	18-25	15	9	112.2	117.5	97.5
Oct 20	OKC	104–116	36-93	10-37	22-25	13	10	102.0	113.7	102.0

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 7	HOU	102–99	41-85	12-34	8-11	15	9	107.4	105.3	94.5
Nov 5	ORL	117–104	45-87	17-34	10-13	14	6	117.0	103.0	100.5
Nov 4	POR	119–132	41-92	10-36	27-31	12	14	114.4	126.9	104.0
Nov 2	@GSW	113–116	40-85	11-30	22-30	15	9	114.1	117.2	99.0
Oct 30	DEN	120–127	46-94	18-42	10-11	15	15	122.4	129.6	98.0
Oct 26	@OKC	114–125	39-91	18-50	18-25	12	14	117.5	127.6	97.5
Oct 24	GSW	131–122	50-86	14-37	17-22	15	9	129.7	119.6	101.5
Oct 21	@POR	83–124	30-84	6-32	17-23	15	13	86.5	126.5	97.0
Apr 27	OKC	122–131	48-90	14-39	12-16	12	10	125.8	136.5	96.5
Apr 25	OKC	109–121	38-87	13-41	20-23	11	9	111.2	122.2	98.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

More about this game

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-09 20:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.