2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

MIN 4–2@SAS 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	110	111	+1
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	117	121	+4

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1598	1687
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+159
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+6.0	+7.8
Games played this season	6	5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.2	112.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.0	109.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	33.3	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1598SAS1687

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1598

Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
This season's 6 games: +45.4

W@MIA131–106+21.7
W@ORL115–93+19.0
WTOR117–94+11.6
L@CLE125–127−4.3
LGSW114–119−13.3
WLAC127–101+10.7

SAS1687

Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
This season's 5 games: −16.7

LOKC104–116−15.8
LHOU110–114−11.1
W@DAL122–106+5.7
WSAC130–103+2.6
W@UTA117–111+1.9

Season scoring marginMIN+6.0SAS+7.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+6.0

Scores 121.5, allows 106.7 over 6 games: +14.8 a game.

30% this season (+14.8) + 70% last season (+2.2) = +6.0

SAS+7.8

Scores 116.6, allows 110.0 over 5 games: +6.6 a game.

25% this season (+6.6) + 75% last season (+8.2) = +7.8

Offensive rating, last 10MIN112.2SAS112.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN112.2scored, −2.4 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	54.5%	−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.2%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.8%	26.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.183	0.210	−0.8
Everything else			−0.1

SAS112.9scored, −1.7 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.5%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	12.2%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	26.1%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.201	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			+1.3

Defensive rating, last 10MIN109.0SAS109.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN109.0allowed, −5.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.7%	54.5%	+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	12.2%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	26.1%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			+1.2

SAS109.8allowed, −4.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.4%	54.5%	+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	26.1%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.210	+0.6
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 102.2 and SAS 97.7 → average 100.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIN33.3SAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN33.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Edwards	33.2	33.7	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestMIN1 daysSAS3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 30 against LAC.

SAS3days

Last played Oct 28 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 30	LAC	127–101	51-95	18-42	7-11	11	12	127.0	102.0	99.5
Oct 28	GSW	114–119	40-90	15-45	19-27	15	7	105.6	110.2	108.0
Oct 26	@CLE	125–127	49-102	13-40	14-23	17	17	112.6	112.4	101.4
Oct 25	TOR	117–94	43-77	15-31	16-25	23	9	118.2	95.9	98.5
Oct 23	@ORL	115–93	42-98	14-37	17-30	12	22	113.9	92.1	101.0
Oct 21	@MIA	131–106	46-98	21-50	18-29	14	17	124.8	100.0	105.5
May 15	SAS	109–139	40-106	12-34	17-21	5	9	103.8	133.7	104.5
May 12	@SAS	97–126	32-83	9-33	24-30	13	10	94.2	122.3	103.0
May 10	SAS	114–109	42-94	10-27	20-22	17	15	115.2	107.9	100.0
May 8	SAS	108–115	38-99	14-40	18-21	12	15	106.9	113.9	101.0

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	@UTA	117–111	44-101	12-38	17-21	11	15	108.3	102.8	97.8
Oct 27	SAC	130–103	49-90	17-37	15-19	13	9	130.0	103.0	100.0
Oct 24	@DAL	122–106	48-101	15-42	11-16	12	15	118.4	103.9	102.5
Oct 23	HOU	110–114	40-87	12-37	18-25	15	9	112.2	117.5	97.5
Oct 20	OKC	104–116	36-93	10-37	22-25	13	10	102.0	113.7	102.0
Jun 10	@NYK	106–107	36-86	17-43	17-20	11	12	112.8	115.1	93.5
Jun 8	@NYK	115–111	39-84	12-34	25-32	8	6	123.7	119.4	93.0
Jun 5	NYK	104–105	37-78	11-29	19-27	16	5	105.1	108.2	98.0
Jun 3	NYK	95–105	32-89	11-43	20-25	13	14	96.0	105.0	99.5
May 30	@OKC	111–103	40-88	17-40	14-19	12	15	120.7	109.6	93.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

69%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

SAS was the forecast favorite

3 pts

margin miss

forecast +7, actual +10 for SAS

100th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

116th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	SAS
Final score	111	121
Field goals	40–93 · 43.0%	43–87 · 49.4%
Three-pointers	9–33 · 27.3%	10–27 · 37.0%
Free throws	22–26 · 84.6%	25–31 · 80.6%
Rebounds	38	49
Assists	23	24
Turnovers	14	15
Steals	11	6
Blocks	2	9

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · San Antonio Spurs

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	+7	+10	+3
Total points	227	232	+5
MIN points	110	111	+1
SAS points	117	121	+4

Recent form before this game