2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

PHX 1–3@GSW 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHX Phoenix Suns	113	113	±0
GSW Golden State Warriors (home)	114	116	+2

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHX	GSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1495	1492
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+68
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.0	+0.6
Games played this season	4	7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.0	116.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.9	117.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	12.2
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1495GSW1492

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1495

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
This season's 4 games: −28.7

L@POR83–124−22.0
WGSW131–122+5.2
L@OKC114–125−3.2
LDEN120–127−8.7

GSW1492

Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
This season's 7 games: +50.6

L@LAL105–127−7.5
LMEM108–111−9.2
L@PHX122–131−5.2
W@DEN134–114+32.3
W@MIN119–114+13.3
WLAL112–95+17.4
WLAC124–112+9.5

Season scoring marginPHX−2.0GSW+0.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX−2.0

Scores 112.0, allows 124.5 over 4 games: −12.5 a game.

20% this season (−12.5) + 80% last season (+0.6) = −2.0

GSW+0.6

Scores 117.7, allows 114.9 over 7 games: +2.9 a game.

35% this season (+2.9) + 65% last season (−0.6) = +0.6

Offensive rating, last 10PHX111.0GSW116.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX111.0scored, −3.5 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	54.5%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.5%	26.1%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.165	0.210	−1.3
Everything else			+0.9

GSW116.7scored, +2.1 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.5%	+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.0%	12.2%	−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.1%	26.1%	+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.242	0.210	+0.9
Everything else			+1.4

Defensive rating, last 10PHX122.9GSW117.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX122.9allowed, +8.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.2%	54.5%	−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.5%	26.1%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.233	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			−0.8

GSW117.6allowed, +3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	54.5%	−4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.3%	12.2%	+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.9%	26.1%	−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			±0.0

Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 96.9 and GSW 99.0 → average 98.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHX0.0GSW12.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW12.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Gui Santos	7.2	20.1	6
Al Horford	5.0	18.7	6

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPHX3 daysGSW1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX3days

Last played Oct 30 against DEN.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 30	DEN	120–127	46-94	18-42	10-11	15	15	122.4	129.6	98.0
Oct 26	@OKC	114–125	39-91	18-50	18-25	12	14	117.5	127.6	97.5
Oct 24	GSW	131–122	50-86	14-37	17-22	15	9	129.7	119.6	101.5
Oct 21	@POR	83–124	30-84	6-32	17-23	15	13	86.5	126.5	97.0
Apr 27	OKC	122–131	48-90	14-39	12-16	12	10	125.8	136.5	96.5
Apr 25	OKC	109–121	38-87	13-41	20-23	11	9	111.2	122.2	98.5
Apr 22	@OKC	107–120	39-85	11-31	18-22	21	15	108.1	120.0	99.5
Apr 19	@OKC	84–119	29-83	13-39	13-18	17	13	90.3	129.3	92.5
Apr 12	@OKC	135–103	56-101	20-41	3-6	11	13	137.8	105.1	98.0
Apr 10	@LAL	73–101	26-77	7-40	14-21	23	17	81.1	112.2	90.0

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 1	LAC	124–112	46-86	22-49	10-14	15	11	122.8	112.0	100.5
Oct 30	LAL	112–95	38-89	22-46	14-17	15	15	119.1	102.2	93.5
Oct 28	@MIN	119–114	39-89	11-35	30-37	17	13	110.2	105.6	108.0
Oct 26	@DEN	134–114	46-85	22-44	20-21	17	13	139.6	117.5	96.5
Oct 24	@PHX	122–131	41-91	17-39	23-32	16	19	119.6	129.7	101.5
Oct 23	MEM	108–111	34-83	14-41	26-29	19	18	108.0	112.1	99.5
Oct 21	@LAL	105–127	38-92	8-36	21-27	15	15	102.9	124.5	102.0
Apr 12	@LAC	110–115	36-86	11-39	27-32	9	13	117.0	121.1	94.5
Apr 10	@SAC	118–124	39-81	14-36	26-28	16	5	115.7	121.6	102.0
Apr 9	LAL	103–119	41-81	9-30	12-12	19	9	112.0	129.3	92.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

53%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

GSW was the forecast favorite

2 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual +3 for GSW

52nd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

125th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHX	GSW
Final score	113	116
Field goals	40–85 · 47.1%	36–84 · 42.9%
Three-pointers	11–30 · 36.7%	13–42 · 31.0%
Free throws	22–30 · 73.3%	31–37 · 83.8%
Rebounds	37	44
Assists	28	23
Turnovers	15	13
Steals	11	7
Blocks	5	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Golden State Warriors

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)	+1	+3	+2
Total points	227	229	+2
PHX points	113	113	±0
GSW points	114	116	+2

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 30	vs DEN	L 120–127
Oct 26	at OKC	L 114–125
Oct 24	vs GSW	W 131–122
Oct 21	at POR	L 83–124
Apr 27	vs OKC	L 122–131

Golden State Warriors

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 1	vs LAC	W 124–112
Oct 30	vs LAL	W 112–95
Oct 28	at MIN	W 119–114
Oct 26	at DEN	W 134–114
Oct 24	at PHX	L 122–131

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Oct 24 2026-27	GSW at PHX	GSW 122 – 131 PHX
Feb 5 2025-26	GSW at PHX	GSW 101 – 97 PHX
Dec 20 2025-26	PHX at GSW	PHX 116 – 119 GSW
Dec 18 2025-26	GSW at PHX	GSW 98 – 99 PHX
Nov 4 2025-26	PHX at GSW	PHX 107 – 118 GSW