2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

MIL 0–2@PHI 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks	109	116	+7
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home)	119	127	+8

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIL	PHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1359	1547
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+259
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−6.5	−0.5
Games played this season	2	2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.7	107.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.6	115.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	15.5
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1359PHI1547

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1359

Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
This season's 2 games: −23.8

L@WAS116–128−13.1
LCHI125–132−10.7

PHI1547

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
This season's 2 games: +23.9

W@NYK106–100+16.0
WCLE114–106+7.9

Season scoring marginMIL−6.5PHI−0.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL−6.5

Scores 120.5, allows 130.0 over 2 games: −9.5 a game.

10% this season (−9.5) + 90% last season (−6.2) = −6.5

PHI−0.5

Scores 110.0, allows 103.0 over 2 games: +7.0 a game.

10% this season (+7.0) + 90% last season (−1.3) = −0.5

Offensive rating, last 10MIL114.7PHI107.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL114.7scored, +0.1 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.5%	+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.7%	12.2%	−3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.6%	26.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.165	0.210	−1.3
Everything else			−0.7

PHI107.8scored, −6.8 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.3%	54.5%	−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.2%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	17.2%	26.1%	−4.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.248	0.210	+1.1
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10MIL119.6PHI115.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL119.6allowed, +5.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.5%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.8%	12.2%	−3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.5%	26.1%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.246	0.210	−1.0
Everything else			+0.3

PHI115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.5%	−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.6%	26.1%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.202	0.210	+0.2
Everything else			+1.5

Pace, last 10average 98.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 99.8 and PHI 97.7 → average 98.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0PHI15.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHI15.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
LeBron James	15.5	33.6	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestMIL1 daysPHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against CHI.

PHI2days

Last played Oct 22 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	CHI	125–132	46-92	19-46	14-26	19	11	113.6	120.0	110.0
Oct 21	@WAS	116–128	41-91	15-41	19-23	16	13	112.6	123.1	103.5
Apr 12	@PHI	106–126	39-90	13-47	15-22	17	9	101.9	121.2	104.0
Apr 10	BKN	125–108	45-81	24-48	11-16	17	7	130.2	112.5	96.0
Apr 8	@DET	111–137	36-86	17-50	22-28	13	13	119.4	145.7	93.5
Apr 7	@BKN	90–96	35-81	15-45	5-8	19	9	96.8	103.2	93.0
Apr 5	MEM	131–115	50-83	16-32	15-24	20	10	129.7	112.7	101.5
Apr 3	BOS	101–133	35-83	21-47	10-13	13	8	109.8	141.5	93.0
Apr 1	@HOU	113–119	42-89	17-40	12-16	15	13	121.5	125.3	94.0
Mar 31	DAL	123–99	41-92	20-54	21-26	16	12	111.8	90.8	109.5

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 22	CLE	114–106	42-92	7-28	23-30	16	9	103.6	97.2	109.5
Oct 20	@NYK	106–100	37-89	11-40	21-27	10	6	103.9	98.0	102.0
May 10	NYK	114–144	43-86	8-35	20-28	9	7	116.3	146.9	98.0
May 8	NYK	94–108	36-84	9-32	13-16	11	9	101.1	114.9	93.5
May 6	@NYK	102–108	34-75	13-34	21-28	18	11	108.5	113.7	94.5
May 4	@NYK	98–137	30-73	11-30	27-34	19	8	99.0	139.8	98.5
May 2	@BOS	109–100	39-82	11-28	20-23	9	3	116.0	105.3	94.5
Apr 30	BOS	106–93	39-89	11-33	17-19	10	8	107.1	93.0	99.5
Apr 28	@BOS	113–97	39-78	15-42	20-23	9	5	120.2	103.2	94.0
Apr 26	BOS	96–128	33-80	9-30	21-24	8	6	102.1	139.1	93.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

76%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

PHI was the forecast favorite

1 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual +11 for PHI

124th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

133rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIL	PHI
Final score	116	127
Field goals	42–90 · 46.7%	40–98 · 40.8%
Three-pointers	11–34 · 32.4%	19–44 · 43.2%
Free throws	21–28 · 75.0%	28–34 · 82.4%
Rebounds	62	40
Assists	20	26
Turnovers	22	11
Steals	5	14
Blocks	4	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Philadelphia 76ers

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)	+10	+11	+1
Total points	228	243	+15
MIL points	109	116	+7
PHI points	119	127	+8

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 23	vs CHI	L 125–132
Oct 21	at WAS	L 116–128
Apr 12	at PHI	L 106–126
Apr 10	vs BKN	W 125–108
Apr 8	at DET	L 111–137

Philadelphia 76ers

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 22	vs CLE	W 114–106
Oct 20	at NYK	W 106–100
May 10	vs NYK	L 114–144
May 8	vs NYK	L 94–108
May 6	at NYK	L 102–108

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Apr 12 2025-26	MIL at PHI	MIL 106 – 126 PHI
Jan 27 2025-26	MIL at PHI	MIL 122 – 139 PHI
Dec 5 2025-26	PHI at MIL	PHI 116 – 101 MIL
Nov 20 2025-26	PHI at MIL	PHI 123 – 114 MIL
Apr 3 2024-25	MIL at PHI	MIL 126 – 113 PHI