2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

IND 2–1@MIL 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
IND Indiana Pacers	118	102	−16
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home)	120	110	−10

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	IND	MIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1386	1356
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+40
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−6.1	−6.8
Games played this season	3	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.8	114.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.1	122.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	9.0	0.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1386MIL1356

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1386

Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
This season's 3 games: +11.9

W@NOP123–120+8.2
LDAL105–121−17.8
W@BKN136–109+21.5

MIL1356

Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
This season's 3 games: −27.2

L@WAS116–128−13.1
LCHI125–132−10.7
L@PHI116–127−3.4

Season scoring marginIND−6.1MIL−6.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−6.1

Scores 121.3, allows 116.7 over 3 games: +4.7 a game.

15% this season (+4.7) + 85% last season (−8.0) = −6.1

MIL−6.8

Scores 119.0, allows 129.0 over 3 games: −10.0 a game.

15% this season (−10.0) + 85% last season (−6.2) = −6.8

Offensive rating, last 10IND112.8MIL114.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND112.8scored, −1.8 vs league

Factor	IND	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.9%	54.5%	+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.2%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	17.5%	26.1%	−3.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+2.0

MIL114.0scored, −0.6 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.5%	+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.2%	12.2%	−4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.6%	26.1%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.165	0.210	−1.3
Everything else			−0.8

Defensive rating, last 10IND114.1MIL122.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND114.1allowed, −0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	54.5%	+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.0%	26.1%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.210	+0.2
Everything else			+2.3

MIL122.1allowed, +7.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.5%	54.5%	−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.5%	12.2%	−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.7%	26.1%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.253	0.210	−1.2
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 101.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 103.3 and MIL 99.9 → average 101.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingIND9.0MIL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND9.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ivica Zubac	9.0	21.4	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestIND1 daysMIL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against BKN.

MIL2days

Last played Oct 24 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 25	@BKN	136–109	49-85	21-43	17-22	14	4	129.5	103.8	105.0
Oct 23	DAL	105–121	39-88	7-32	20-28	19	13	105.0	121.0	100.0
Oct 21	@NOP	123–120	47-90	9-30	20-29	13	9	117.1	114.3	105.0
Apr 12	DET	121–133	41-90	23-54	16-20	16	4	115.2	127.9	104.5
Apr 10	PHI	94–105	33-88	14-50	14-16	21	7	89.5	101.0	104.5
Apr 9	@BKN	123–94	51-98	8-31	13-18	11	8	118.3	90.4	104.0
Apr 7	MIN	104–124	35-73	9-26	25-31	22	4	101.0	119.2	103.5
Apr 5	@CLE	108–117	33-86	17-44	25-29	10	7	109.1	118.2	99.0
Apr 3	@CHA	108–129	43-93	15-36	7-10	11	10	109.1	130.3	99.0
Apr 1	@CHI	145–126	58-102	20-48	9-10	13	6	134.3	114.5	109.0

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 24	@PHI	116–127	42-90	11-34	21-28	22	17	104.5	115.5	110.5
Oct 23	CHI	125–132	46-92	19-46	14-26	19	11	113.6	120.0	110.0
Oct 21	@WAS	116–128	41-91	15-41	19-23	16	13	112.6	123.1	103.5
Apr 12	@PHI	106–126	39-90	13-47	15-22	17	9	101.9	121.2	104.0
Apr 10	BKN	125–108	45-81	24-48	11-16	17	7	130.2	112.5	96.0
Apr 8	@DET	111–137	36-86	17-50	22-28	13	13	119.4	145.7	93.5
Apr 7	@BKN	90–96	35-81	15-45	5-8	19	9	96.8	103.2	93.0
Apr 5	MEM	131–115	50-83	16-32	15-24	20	10	129.7	112.7	101.5
Apr 3	BOS	101–133	35-83	21-47	10-13	13	8	109.8	141.5	93.0
Apr 1	@HOU	113–119	42-89	17-40	12-16	15	13	121.5	125.3	94.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

56%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIL, the winner

MIL was the forecast favorite

6 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual +8 for MIL

61st

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

94th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	IND	MIL
Final score	102	110
Field goals	39–96 · 40.6%	41–95 · 43.2%
Three-pointers	13–48 · 27.1%	13–44 · 29.5%
Free throws	11–18 · 61.1%	15–21 · 71.4%
Rebounds	48	61
Assists	27	27
Turnovers	13	11
Steals	5	6
Blocks	8	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Milwaukee Bucks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)	+2	+8	+6
Total points	238	212	−26
IND points	118	102	−16
MIL points	120	110	−10

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 25	at BKN	W 136–109
Oct 23	vs DAL	L 105–121
Oct 21	at NOP	W 123–120
Apr 12	vs DET	L 121–133
Apr 10	vs PHI	L 94–105

Milwaukee Bucks

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 24	at PHI	L 116–127
Oct 23	vs CHI	L 125–132
Oct 21	at WAS	L 116–128
Apr 12	at PHI	L 106–126
Apr 10	vs BKN	W 125–108

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 15 2025-26	IND at MIL	IND 123 – 134 MIL
Feb 6 2025-26	IND at MIL	IND 99 – 105 MIL
Dec 23 2025-26	MIL at IND	MIL 111 – 94 IND
Nov 3 2025-26	MIL at IND	MIL 117 – 115 IND
Apr 29 2024-25	MIL at IND	MIL 118 – 119 IND