2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

DAL 1–2@MIA 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DAL Dallas Mavericks	121	113	−8
MIA Miami Heat (home)	125	109	−16

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DAL	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1395	1481
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+156
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.4	−0.4
Games played this season	3	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.9	119.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.7	123.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	13.7	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1395MIA1481

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1395

Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
This season's 3 games: +7.2

L@HOU110–128−4.9
W@IND121–105+17.8
LSAS106–122−5.7

MIA1481

Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
This season's 3 games: −37.5

LMIN106–131−21.7
LDET111–128−12.1
L@CHA110–115−3.7

Season scoring marginDAL−5.4MIA−0.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL−5.4

Scores 112.3, allows 118.3 over 3 games: −6.0 a game.

15% this season (−6.0) + 85% last season (−5.3) = −5.4

MIA−0.4

Scores 109.0, allows 124.7 over 3 games: −15.7 a game.

15% this season (−15.7) + 85% last season (+2.3) = −0.4

Offensive rating, last 10DAL113.9MIA119.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL113.9scored, −0.7 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.2%	54.5%	−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.2%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	26.1%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.210	+0.2
Everything else			+0.3

MIA119.4scored, +4.8 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.1%	54.5%	+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.9%	26.1%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			+0.4

Defensive rating, last 10DAL119.7MIA123.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL119.7allowed, +5.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.3%	54.5%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.2%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	26.1%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.220	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			−0.1

MIA123.0allowed, +8.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	54.5%	−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.2%	12.2%	−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.1%	26.1%	±0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.180	0.210	+0.9
Everything else			−2.2

Pace, last 10average 102.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 103.5 and MIA 101.9 → average 102.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDAL13.7MIA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL13.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Naji Marshall	13.7	27.7	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Oct 24 against SAS.

MIA2days

Last played Oct 24 against CHA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 24	SAS	106–122	45-87	11-28	5-8	18	8	103.9	118.4	102.5
Oct 23	@IND	121–105	44-88	14-34	19-23	14	11	121.0	105.0	100.0
Oct 21	@HOU	110–128	41-80	11-38	17-26	21	8	111.1	130.6	98.5
Apr 12	CHI	149–128	52-100	22-49	23-27	18	15	134.2	114.3	111.5
Apr 10	@SAS	120–139	45-98	15-40	15-19	7	12	121.2	139.0	99.5
Apr 8	@PHX	107–112	37-89	13-36	20-22	8	10	112.6	117.9	95.0
Apr 7	@LAC	103–116	35-100	6-33	27-28	8	14	97.2	109.4	106.0
Apr 5	LAL	134–128	46-88	14-32	28-36	7	8	131.4	124.3	102.5
Apr 3	ORL	127–138	44-95	14-42	25-31	13	11	115.5	126.6	109.5
Mar 31	@MIL	99–123	34-96	10-36	21-28	14	10	90.8	111.8	109.5

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 24	@CHA	110–115	37-86	13-35	23-25	13	8	107.8	113.9	101.5
Oct 23	DET	111–128	39-102	15-51	18-28	12	18	107.8	125.5	102.5
Oct 21	MIN	106–131	39-81	8-33	20-26	18	4	100.0	124.8	105.5
Apr 12	ATL	143–117	58-103	15-37	12-17	6	13	137.5	111.4	104.5
Apr 10	@WAS	140–117	49-82	20-37	22-26	18	9	135.9	113.6	103.0
Apr 9	@TOR	114–128	46-82	14-35	8-14	13	6	121.3	136.2	94.0
Apr 7	@TOR	95–121	33-91	12-44	17-19	15	10	93.1	118.6	102.0
Apr 4	WAS	152–136	54-93	17-39	27-34	14	10	142.1	125.9	107.5
Apr 1	BOS	129–147	44-95	24-47	17-23	9	12	130.3	151.5	98.0
Mar 30	PHI	119–109	43-93	11-40	22-29	11	16	117.8	109.0	100.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

39%

pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

8 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual −4 for MIA

19th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

79th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DAL	MIA
Final score	113	109
Field goals	43–94 · 45.7%	41–92 · 44.6%
Three-pointers	14–46 · 30.4%	13–41 · 31.7%
Free throws	13–14 · 92.9%	14–25 · 56.0%
Rebounds	51	42
Assists	31	26
Turnovers	16	14
Steals	11	9
Blocks	10	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Miami Heat

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+4	−4	−8
Total points	246	222	−24
DAL points	121	113	−8
MIA points	125	109	−16

Recent form before this game