2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

PHX 1–1@OKC 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHX Phoenix Suns	105	114	+9
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	115	125	+10

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHX	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1507	1706
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+270
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.1	+10.6
Games played this season	2	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.7	107.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.5	107.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	32.0
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1507OKC1706

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1507

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
This season's 2 games: −16.8

L@POR83–124−22.0
WGSW131–122+5.2

OKC1706

Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
This season's 3 games: +24.0

W@SAS116–104+15.8
WDEN96–84+5.4
WLAC108–101+2.8

Season scoring marginPHX−1.1OKC+10.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX−1.1

Scores 107.0, allows 123.0 over 2 games: −16.0 a game.

10% this season (−16.0) + 90% last season (+0.6) = −1.1

OKC+10.6

Scores 106.7, allows 96.3 over 3 games: +10.3 a game.

15% this season (+10.3) + 85% last season (+10.7) = +10.6

Offensive rating, last 10PHX109.7OKC107.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX109.7scored, −4.9 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.8%	54.5%	−4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.2%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	26.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			+1.0

OKC107.9scored, −6.7 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.5%	54.5%	−7.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.0%	26.1%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10PHX120.5OKC107.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX120.5allowed, +6.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	54.5%	−0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.4%	26.1%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.212	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			−0.8

OKC107.9allowed, −6.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.1%	54.5%	+6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.6%	12.2%	+3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.4%	26.1%	−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.232	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			−1.4

Pace, last 10average 97.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 96.6 and OKC 98.3 → average 97.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHX0.0OKC32.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

OKC32.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Williams	13.7	31.6	3
Chet Holmgren	12.0	29.9	3
Cason Wallace	6.3	16.3	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestPHX2 daysOKC1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX2days

Last played Oct 24 against GSW.

OKC1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 24	GSW	131–122	50-86	14-37	17-22	15	9	129.7	119.6	101.5
Oct 21	@POR	83–124	30-84	6-32	17-23	15	13	86.5	126.5	97.0
Apr 27	OKC	122–131	48-90	14-39	12-16	12	10	125.8	136.5	96.5
Apr 25	OKC	109–121	38-87	13-41	20-23	11	9	111.2	122.2	98.5
Apr 22	@OKC	107–120	39-85	11-31	18-22	21	15	108.1	120.0	99.5
Apr 19	@OKC	84–119	29-83	13-39	13-18	17	13	90.3	129.3	92.5
Apr 12	@OKC	135–103	56-101	20-41	3-6	11	13	137.8	105.1	98.0
Apr 10	@LAL	73–101	26-77	7-40	14-21	23	17	81.1	112.2	90.0
Apr 8	DAL	112–107	42-91	14-35	14-17	10	12	117.9	112.6	95.0
Apr 7	HOU	105–119	32-75	7-31	34-39	18	10	108.2	121.4	97.5

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 25	LAC	108–101	42-94	8-24	16-17	16	15	105.9	99.0	102.0
Oct 22	DEN	96–84	36-95	11-43	13-14	12	16	102.1	89.4	94.0
Oct 20	@SAS	116–104	43-95	14-31	16-20	11	10	113.7	102.0	102.0
May 30	SAS	103–111	37-83	12-35	17-22	13	10	109.6	120.7	93.0
May 28	@SAS	91–118	35-94	10-40	11-12	12	12	91.0	119.2	99.5
May 26	SAS	127–114	40-83	14-32	33-38	16	14	124.5	112.9	101.5
May 24	@SAS	82–103	30-91	6-33	16-18	17	11	80.4	102.0	101.5
May 22	@SAS	123–108	39-81	17-38	28-33	10	7	124.2	111.3	98.0
May 20	SAS	122–113	45-94	13-36	19-24	9	17	124.5	116.5	97.5
May 18	SAS	115–122	41-101	17-45	16-19	14	9	102.7	106.1	93.9

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

76%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

OKC was the forecast favorite

1 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual +11 for OKC

124th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

133rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHX	OKC
Final score	114	125
Field goals	39–91 · 42.9%	44–86 · 51.2%
Three-pointers	18–50 · 36.0%	12–32 · 37.5%
Free throws	18–25 · 72.0%	25–29 · 86.2%
Rebounds	38	48
Assists	29	24
Turnovers	12	16
Steals	7	3
Blocks	5	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Oklahoma City Thunder

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+10	+11	+1
Total points	220	239	+19
PHX points	105	114	+9
OKC points	115	125	+10

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 24	vs GSW	W 131–122
Oct 21	at POR	L 83–124
Apr 27	vs OKC	L 122–131
Apr 25	vs OKC	L 109–121
Apr 22	at OKC	L 107–120

Oklahoma City Thunder

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 25	vs LAC	W 108–101
Oct 22	vs DEN	W 96–84
Oct 20	at SAS	W 116–104
May 30	vs SAS	L 103–111
May 28	at SAS	L 91–118

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Apr 27 2025-26	OKC at PHX	OKC 131 – 122 PHX
Apr 25 2025-26	OKC at PHX	OKC 121 – 109 PHX
Apr 22 2025-26	PHX at OKC	PHX 107 – 120 OKC
Apr 19 2025-26	PHX at OKC	PHX 84 – 119 OKC
Apr 12 2025-26	PHX at OKC	PHX 135 – 103 OKC