The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 10:30 PM ET

LAL 3–1@LAC 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAL 39 percent, LAC 61 percent. LAL Lakers 39% proj. 111 · final 103 LAC Clippers · home 61% proj. 115 · final 87
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers 111 103 −8
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) 115 87 −28

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputLALLAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15701527
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +27
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.4+1.5
Games played this season 43
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.3112.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.6113.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 47.310.3
Rest days 13
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1570LAC1527

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1570

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 4 games: +5.7
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
  • WLAC125–117+5.9
  • W@UTA132–123+4.5
  • LPOR129–136−12.2

LAC1527

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. This season's 3 games: −1.9
  • WSAC121–96+6.8
  • L@LAL117–125−5.9
  • L@OKC101–108−2.8
Season scoring marginLAL+2.4LAC+1.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+2.4

Scores 128.2, allows 120.2 over 4 games: +8.0 a game.

20% this season (+8.0) + 80% last season (+1.0) = +2.4

LAC+1.5

Scores 113.0, allows 109.7 over 3 games: +3.3 a game.

15% this season (+3.3) + 85% last season (+1.1) = +1.5

Offensive rating, last 10LAL115.3LAC112.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAL115.3scored, +0.7 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.5%+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)14.9%12.2%−3.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2540.210+1.3
Everything else−0.0

LAC112.2scored, −2.4 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.5%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.6%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210−0.4
Everything else+0.6
Defensive rating, last 10LAL116.6LAC113.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAL116.6allowed, +2.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.210−0.3
Everything else+1.0

LAC113.5allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.210−0.3
Everything else+0.7
Pace, last 10average 98.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 97.0 and LAC 99.6 → average 98.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAL47.3LAC10.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL47.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Luka Dončić36.035.54
Ziaire Williams11.228.44

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAC10.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Rui Hachimura10.331.23

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestLAL1 daysLAC3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 27 against POR.

LAC3days

Last played Oct 25 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27POR129–13645-8017-4322-30156129.0133.3101.0
Oct 25@UTA132–12340-8220-4732-38105130.7120.6101.5
Oct 23LAC125–11746-7914-3219-25218122.5113.6102.5
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5
May 1@HOU98–7836-8912-2814-241015106.583.992.5
Apr 29HOU93–9932-767-2722-271513103.3110.090.0

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@OKC101–10837-8115-3812-1526899.0105.9102.0
Oct 23@LAL117–12541-8316-3719-252511113.6122.5102.5
Oct 21SAC121–9643-8214-3521-311711116.391.4104.5
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0
Apr 5@SAC138–10949-9220-4120-211410135.3105.8102.5
Apr 2SAS99–11840-935-2714-181010100.0120.498.5
Mar 31POR104–11438-7610-3018-23148114.3123.991.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
the forecast favored LAC
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −16 for LAC
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
26th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLALLAC
Final score10387
Field goals35–79 · 44.3%26–74 · 35.1%
Three-pointers9–31 · 29.0%10–31 · 32.3%
Free throws24–33 · 72.7%25–27 · 92.6%
Rebounds4841
Assists1617
Turnovers1924
Steals1513
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Los Angeles Clippers

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)+4−16−20
Total points226190−36
LAL points111103−8
LAC points11587−28

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 vs POR L 129–136
Oct 25 at UTA W 132–123
Oct 23 vs LAC W 125–117
Oct 21 vs GSW W 127–105
May 11 vs OKC L 110–115

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at OKC L 101–108
Oct 23 at LAL L 117–125
Oct 21 vs SAC W 121–96
Apr 12 vs GSW W 115–110
Apr 10 at POR L 97–116

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Oct 23 2026-27 LAC at LAL LAC 117 – 125 LAL
Feb 20 2025-26 LAC at LAL LAC 122 – 125 LAL
Jan 22 2025-26 LAL at LAC LAL 104 – 112 LAC
Dec 20 2025-26 LAL at LAC LAL 88 – 103 LAC
Nov 25 2025-26 LAC at LAL LAC 118 – 135 LAL