The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

OKC 4–0@DAL 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 72 percent, DAL 28 percent. OKC Thunder 72% proj. 122 · final 96 DAL Mavericks · home 28% proj. 114 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 122 96 −26
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 114 120 +6

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputOKCDAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 17091405
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −234
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +10.6−4.9
Games played this season 44
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.3115.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.0119.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 41.313.7
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1709DAL1405

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1709

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 4 games: +27.2
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
  • WDEN96–84+5.4
  • WLAC108–101+2.8
  • WPHX125–114+3.2

DAL1405

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 4 games: +17.5
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9
  • W@IND121–105+17.8
  • LSAS106–122−5.7
  • W@MIA113–109+10.3
Season scoring marginOKC+10.6DAL−4.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+10.6

Scores 111.2, allows 100.8 over 4 games: +10.5 a game.

20% this season (+10.5) + 80% last season (+10.7) = +10.6

DAL−4.9

Scores 112.5, allows 116.0 over 4 games: −3.5 a game.

20% this season (−3.5) + 80% last season (−5.3) = −4.9

Offensive rating, last 10OKC110.3DAL115.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC110.3scored, −4.2 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.5%−6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.210+0.3
Everything else−0.2

DAL115.9scored, +1.3 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210−0.1
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10OKC109.0DAL119.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC109.0allowed, −5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.5%+6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%12.2%+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.210−0.4
Everything else−1.7

DAL119.1allowed, +4.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.5%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.210−0.1
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 98.7 and DAL 102.8 → average 100.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC41.3DAL13.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC41.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Williams13.731.63
Chet Holmgren12.029.93
Alex Caruso9.218.94
Cason Wallace6.316.33

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

DAL13.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Naji Marshall13.727.73

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played Oct 26 against PHX.

DAL2days

Last played Oct 26 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26PHX125–11444-8612-3225-291612127.6117.597.5
Oct 25LAC108–10142-948-2416-171615105.999.0102.0
Oct 22DEN96–8436-9511-4313-141216102.189.494.0
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5
May 26SAS127–11440-8314-3233-381614124.5112.9101.5
May 24@SAS82–10330-916-3316-18171180.4102.0101.5
May 22@SAS123–10839-8117-3828-33107124.2111.398.0
May 20SAS122–11345-9413-3619-24917124.5116.597.5

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@MIA113–10943-9414-4613-141613110.8105.8102.5
Oct 24SAS106–12245-8711-285-8188103.9118.4102.5
Oct 23@IND121–10544-8814-3419-231411121.0105.0100.0
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5
Apr 12CHI149–12852-10022-4923-271815134.2114.3111.5
Apr 10@SAS120–13945-9815-4015-19712121.2139.099.5
Apr 8@PHX107–11237-8913-3620-22810112.6117.995.0
Apr 7@LAC103–11635-1006-3327-2881497.2109.4106.0
Apr 5LAL134–12846-8814-3228-3678131.4124.3102.5
Apr 3ORL127–13844-9514-4225-311311115.5126.6109.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored OKC
32 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual +24 for DAL
8th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
4th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCDAL
Final score96120
Field goals36–87 · 41.4%46–97 · 47.4%
Three-pointers5–32 · 15.6%16–45 · 35.6%
Free throws19–23 · 82.6%12–15 · 80.0%
Rebounds4349
Assists1730
Turnovers139
Steals44
Blocks36

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Dallas Mavericks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)−8+24+32
Total points236216−20
OKC points12296−26
DAL points114120+6

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs PHX W 125–114
Oct 25 vs LAC W 108–101
Oct 22 vs DEN W 96–84
Oct 20 at SAS W 116–104
May 30 vs SAS L 103–111

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at MIA W 113–109
Oct 24 vs SAS L 106–122
Oct 23 at IND W 121–105
Oct 21 at HOU L 110–128
Apr 12 vs CHI W 149–128

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Mar 1 2025-26 OKC at DAL OKC 100 – 87 DAL
Dec 5 2025-26 DAL at OKC DAL 111 – 132 OKC
Oct 27 2025-26 OKC at DAL OKC 101 – 94 DAL
Jan 23 2024-25 DAL at OKC DAL 121 – 115 OKC
Jan 17 2024-25 OKC at DAL OKC 98 – 106 DAL