2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

CHA 3–2@WAS 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	120	79	−41
WAS Washington Wizards (home)	113	95	−18

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	WAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1566	1295
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−201
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.8	−9.5
Games played this season	5	5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.0	110.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.8	119.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	7.3
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1566WAS1295

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1566

Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
This season's 5 games: −45.4

W@BKN110–103+3.0
LATL81–128−48.4
WMIA115–110+3.7
WWAS110–103+1.6
L@DET89–97−5.3

WAS1295

Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
This season's 5 games: +15.3

WMIL128–116+13.1
LTOR102–112−4.6
W@CHI124–120+10.4
L@CHA103–110−1.6
L@CLE111–121−2.0

Season scoring marginCHA+1.8WAS−9.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA+1.8

Scores 101.0, allows 108.2 over 5 games: −7.2 a game.

25% this season (−7.2) + 75% last season (+4.8) = +1.8

WAS−9.5

Scores 113.6, allows 115.8 over 5 games: −2.2 a game.

25% this season (−2.2) + 75% last season (−12.0) = −9.5

Offensive rating, last 10CHA110.0WAS110.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA110.0scored, −4.5 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.5%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.2%	−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.9%	26.1%	+2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.163	0.210	−1.4
Everything else			+1.1

WAS110.2scored, −4.4 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.6%	54.5%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.2%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.4%	26.1%	−3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			+1.8

Defensive rating, last 10CHA111.8WAS119.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA111.8allowed, −2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.4%	54.5%	+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.3%	26.1%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.168	0.210	+1.2
Everything else			+0.8

WAS119.0allowed, +4.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.5%	−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.2%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.1%	26.1%	−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			+0.4

Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 97.0 and WAS 102.3 → average 99.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0WAS7.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

WAS7.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Justin Champagnie	7.2	18.3	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysWAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Oct 28 against DET.

WAS2days

Last played Oct 28 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	@DET	89–97	31-71	12-35	15-19	23	9	93.7	102.1	95.0
Oct 26	WAS	110–103	42-97	12-39	14-17	11	20	114.6	108.4	95.5
Oct 24	MIA	115–110	38-88	16-43	23-25	16	10	113.9	107.8	101.5
Oct 23	ATL	81–128	30-87	11-51	10-12	25	19	81.0	128.0	100.0
Oct 21	@BKN	110–103	41-93	15-48	13-15	20	15	107.8	102.0	101.5
Apr 12	@NYK	110–96	39-85	19-52	13-17	17	12	118.3	102.1	93.5
Apr 10	DET	100–118	34-88	13-47	19-23	15	14	104.2	124.2	95.5
Apr 7	@BOS	102–113	38-88	16-49	10-13	12	14	112.1	122.8	91.5
Apr 5	@MIN	122–108	45-92	19-45	13-15	15	16	124.5	111.3	97.5
Apr 3	IND	129–108	46-96	24-49	13-15	9	12	130.3	109.1	99.0

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	@CLE	111–121	44-83	8-32	15-17	10	5	119.4	127.4	94.0
Oct 26	@CHA	103–110	41-85	9-28	12-15	14	10	108.4	114.6	95.5
Oct 24	@CHI	124–120	45-94	10-33	24-28	13	11	118.1	113.2	105.5
Oct 23	TOR	102–112	30-79	12-37	30-35	20	6	95.3	104.7	107.0
Oct 21	MIL	128–116	45-86	6-28	32-41	11	12	123.1	112.6	103.5
Apr 12	@CLE	117–130	42-90	18-41	15-19	12	5	117.0	128.7	100.5
Apr 10	MIA	117–140	46-92	14-31	11-14	13	4	113.6	135.9	103.0
Apr 9	CHI	108–119	38-96	10-38	22-27	17	10	100.9	111.2	107.0
Apr 7	CHI	98–129	37-86	11-38	13-21	21	3	89.9	119.4	108.5
Apr 5	@BKN	115–121	44-79	9-25	18-28	20	4	116.2	122.2	99.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

31%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored CHA

23 pts

margin miss

forecast −7, actual +16 for WAS

9th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

23rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 1.19 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	WAS
Final score	79	95
Field goals	30–101 · 29.7%	28–72 · 38.9%
Three-pointers	12–56 · 21.4%	10–30 · 33.3%
Free throws	7–12 · 58.3%	29–35 · 82.9%
Rebounds	55	52
Assists	22	18
Turnovers	10	14
Steals	12	6
Blocks	1	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Washington Wizards

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)	−7	+16	+23
Total points	233	174	−59
CHA points	120	79	−41
WAS points	113	95	−18

Recent form before this game