2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Thursday, October 29, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

CLE 3–1@ATL 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	114	111	−3
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home)	115	114	−1

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	ATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1573	1548
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+45
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.7	+2.0
Games played this season	4	5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.1	109.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.5	116.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1573ATL1548

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1573

Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
This season's 4 games: −0.3

L@PHI106–114−7.9
WBKN125–121+1.3
WMIN127–125+4.3
WWAS121–111+2.0

ATL1548

Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
This season's 5 games: +22.0

W@ORL132–125+11.1
W@CHA128–81+48.4
LHOU114–121−10.8
L@HOU110–120−7.3
LMIA117–129−19.4

Season scoring marginCLE+2.7ATL+2.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+2.7

Scores 119.8, allows 117.8 over 4 games: +2.0 a game.

20% this season (+2.0) + 80% last season (+2.8) = +2.7

ATL+2.0

Scores 120.2, allows 115.2 over 5 games: +5.0 a game.

25% this season (+5.0) + 75% last season (+1.1) = +2.0

Offensive rating, last 10CLE108.1ATL109.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE108.1scored, −6.5 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.5%	−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.2%	−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	26.1%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.245	0.210	+1.0
Everything else			−0.7

ATL109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.5%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.2%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	26.1%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			+0.6

Defensive rating, last 10CLE114.5ATL116.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE114.5allowed, −0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.5%	−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.2%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.2%	26.1%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.202	0.210	+0.2
Everything else			+0.5

ATL116.9allowed, +2.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.5%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.2%	26.1%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.243	0.210	−0.9
Everything else			+0.2

Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 99.3 and ATL 100.2 → average 99.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCLE0.0ATL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCLE1 daysATL1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 28 against WAS.

ATL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 28 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	WAS	121–111	43-91	14-38	21-22	13	15	127.4	119.4	94.0
Oct 26	MIN	127–125	46-102	18-45	17-23	12	13	112.4	112.6	101.4
Oct 24	BKN	125–121	40-79	16-38	29-38	23	9	116.8	113.1	107.0
Oct 22	@PHI	106–114	39-87	7-29	21-28	21	10	97.2	103.6	109.5
May 25	NYK	93–130	32-77	11-40	18-22	22	6	91.2	127.5	102.0
May 23	NYK	108–121	42-84	12-41	12-19	17	9	110.2	124.7	97.5
May 21	@NYK	93–109	31-80	9-35	22-32	8	13	104.5	122.5	89.0
May 19	@NYK	104–115	36-90	16-50	16-23	19	11	96.3	105.5	98.3
May 17	@DET	125–94	43-85	11-34	28-44	11	14	125.0	94.0	100.0
May 15	DET	94–115	30-77	12-35	22-30	20	16	100.0	122.3	94.0

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	MIA	117–129	46-96	16-38	9-14	15	9	109.3	120.6	107.0
Oct 26	@HOU	110–120	42-98	11-39	15-21	13	13	105.8	114.3	104.5
Oct 24	HOU	114–121	43-96	13-49	15-21	13	17	115.2	121.0	99.5
Oct 23	@CHA	128–81	48-95	18-45	14-22	12	12	128.0	81.0	100.0
Oct 21	@ORL	132–125	44-90	14-36	30-36	17	11	118.9	114.7	110.0
Apr 30	NYK	89–140	31-82	9-35	18-23	19	11	89.0	141.4	99.5
Apr 28	@NYK	97–126	37-83	13-42	10-17	10	5	103.2	134.0	94.0
Apr 25	NYK	98–114	34-83	10-41	20-25	18	12	104.3	121.3	94.0
Apr 23	NYK	109–108	39-86	13-33	18-26	16	13	107.9	106.9	101.0
Apr 20	@NYK	107–106	40-81	9-30	18-23	11	6	116.3	114.0	92.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

53%

pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner

ATL was the forecast favorite

2 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual +3 for ATL

52nd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

125th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	ATL
Final score	111	114
Field goals	38–87 · 43.7%	42–95 · 44.2%
Three-pointers	13–42 · 31.0%	17–43 · 39.5%
Free throws	22–29 · 75.9%	13–18 · 72.2%
Rebounds	45	53
Assists	26	34
Turnovers	9	11
Steals	3	4
Blocks	5	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Atlanta Hawks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)	+1	+3	+2
Total points	229	225	−4
CLE points	114	111	−3
ATL points	115	114	−1

Recent form before this game