2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

CLE 3–2@MIL 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	121	136	+15
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home)	116	111	−5

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	MIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1569	1352
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−147
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.4	−7.4
Games played this season	5	5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.4	111.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.9	118.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	7.8	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1569MIL1352

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1569

Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
This season's 5 games: −5.0

L@PHI106–114−7.9
WBKN125–121+1.3
WMIN127–125+4.3
WWAS121–111+2.0
L@ATL111–114−4.7

MIL1352

Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
This season's 5 games: −30.6

L@WAS116–128−13.1
LCHI125–132−10.7
L@PHI116–127−3.4
WIND110–102+7.8
LHOU100–132−11.2

Season scoring marginCLE+2.4MIL−7.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+2.4

Scores 118.0, allows 117.0 over 5 games: +1.0 a game.

25% this season (+1.0) + 75% last season (+2.8) = +2.4

MIL−7.4

Scores 113.4, allows 124.2 over 5 games: −10.8 a game.

25% this season (−10.8) + 75% last season (−6.2) = −7.4

Offensive rating, last 10CLE109.4MIL111.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE109.4scored, −5.2 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	54.5%	−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.5%	12.2%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.8%	26.1%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.242	0.210	+0.9
Everything else			−0.7

MIL111.2scored, −3.4 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.5%	+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.8%	12.2%	−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.9%	26.1%	+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.170	0.210	−1.1
Everything else			−2.6

Defensive rating, last 10CLE113.9MIL118.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE113.9allowed, −0.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	54.5%	+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.2%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	26.1%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.200	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			+0.2

MIL118.2allowed, +3.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.4%	54.5%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	26.1%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.252	0.210	−1.2
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 99.7 and MIL 101.8 → average 100.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCLE7.8MIL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE7.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaylon Tyson	7.8	20.7	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysMIL3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Oct 29 against ATL.

MIL3days

Last played Oct 28 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 29	@ATL	111–114	38-87	13-42	22-29	9	9	113.3	116.3	98.0
Oct 28	WAS	121–111	43-91	14-38	21-22	13	15	127.4	119.4	94.0
Oct 26	MIN	127–125	46-102	18-45	17-23	12	13	112.4	112.6	101.4
Oct 24	BKN	125–121	40-79	16-38	29-38	23	9	116.8	113.1	107.0
Oct 22	@PHI	106–114	39-87	7-29	21-28	21	10	97.2	103.6	109.5
May 25	NYK	93–130	32-77	11-40	18-22	22	6	91.2	127.5	102.0
May 23	NYK	108–121	42-84	12-41	12-19	17	9	110.2	124.7	97.5
May 21	@NYK	93–109	31-80	9-35	22-32	8	13	104.5	122.5	89.0
May 19	@NYK	104–115	36-90	16-50	16-23	19	11	96.3	105.5	98.3
May 17	@DET	125–94	43-85	11-34	28-44	11	14	125.0	94.0	100.0

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	HOU	100–132	37-93	12-41	14-18	16	15	98.0	129.4	102.0
Oct 26	IND	110–102	41-95	13-44	15-21	11	16	104.8	99.0	104.0
Oct 24	@PHI	116–127	42-90	11-34	21-28	22	17	104.5	115.5	110.5
Oct 23	CHI	125–132	46-92	19-46	14-26	19	11	113.6	120.0	110.0
Oct 21	@WAS	116–128	41-91	15-41	19-23	16	13	112.6	123.1	103.5
Apr 12	@PHI	106–126	39-90	13-47	15-22	17	9	101.9	121.2	104.0
Apr 10	BKN	125–108	45-81	24-48	11-16	17	7	130.2	112.5	96.0
Apr 8	@DET	111–137	36-86	17-50	22-28	13	13	119.4	145.7	93.5
Apr 7	@BKN	90–96	35-81	15-45	5-8	19	9	96.8	103.2	93.0
Apr 5	MEM	131–115	50-83	16-32	15-24	20	10	129.7	112.7	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

64%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

CLE was the forecast favorite

20 pts

margin miss

forecast −5, actual −25 for MIL

87th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

26th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	MIL
Final score	136	111
Field goals	52–100 · 52.0%	41–100 · 41.0%
Three-pointers	20–46 · 43.5%	17–51 · 33.3%
Free throws	12–18 · 66.7%	12–18 · 66.7%
Rebounds	56	45
Assists	41	33
Turnovers	11	13
Steals	8	5
Blocks	4	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Milwaukee Bucks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)	−5	−25	−20
Total points	237	247	+10
CLE points	121	136	+15
MIL points	116	111	−5

Recent form before this game