2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

Thursday, October 29, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 0–4@NOP 0–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	120	120	±0
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home)	122	132	+10

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	NOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1340	1400
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+130
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.6	−4.8
Games played this season	4	4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.7	112.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	121.0	117.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	7.0	15.5
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1340NOP1400

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1340

Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
This season's 4 games: −29.6

L@LAC96–121−6.8
LPOR120–128−6.0
LMEM112–123−14.2
L@SAS103–130−2.6

NOP1400

Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
This season's 4 games: −24.1

LIND120–123−8.2
L@UTA119–120−4.4
L@DEN135–141−2.5
LDEN91–104−9.0

Season scoring marginSAC−11.6NOP−4.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−11.6

Scores 107.8, allows 125.5 over 4 games: −17.8 a game.

20% this season (−17.8) + 80% last season (−10.0) = −11.6

NOP−4.8

Scores 116.2, allows 122.0 over 4 games: −5.8 a game.

20% this season (−5.8) + 80% last season (−4.5) = −4.8

Offensive rating, last 10SAC111.7NOP112.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC111.7scored, −2.9 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	54.5%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.7%	26.1%	+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			−0.8

NOP112.1scored, −2.5 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.8%	54.5%	−4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.2%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	26.1%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.259	0.210	+1.4
Everything else			+1.8

Defensive rating, last 10SAC121.0NOP117.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC121.0allowed, +6.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.9%	54.5%	−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.2%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.2%	26.1%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			−0.4

NOP117.3allowed, +2.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.5%	54.5%	−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.4%	26.1%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			+1.0

Pace, last 10average 102.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 100.5 and NOP 105.1 → average 102.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAC7.0NOP15.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC7.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Keegan Murray	7.0	27.2	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

NOP15.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Yves Missi	9.5	19.6	2
Jordan Poole	6.0	15.9	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysNOP1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 27 against SAS.

NOP1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 28 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	@SAS	103–130	40-93	13-37	10-13	13	13	103.0	130.0	100.0
Oct 25	MEM	112–123	44-95	10-33	14-22	13	16	113.1	121.8	100.0
Oct 23	POR	120–128	42-91	8-32	28-30	14	10	113.2	120.8	106.0
Oct 21	@LAC	96–121	36-85	8-28	16-28	17	11	91.4	116.3	104.5
Apr 12	@POR	110–122	40-83	7-21	23-31	16	15	112.2	123.2	98.5
Apr 10	GSW	124–118	41-89	17-44	25-34	16	16	121.6	115.7	102.0
Apr 7	@GSW	105–110	41-87	11-31	12-17	14	13	111.7	114.6	95.0
Apr 5	LAC	109–138	45-85	9-32	10-20	20	11	105.8	135.3	102.5
Apr 3	NOP	117–113	46-90	10-33	15-20	14	11	118.2	115.3	98.5
Apr 1	@TOR	123–115	42-92	12-33	27-29	13	19	126.8	117.3	97.5

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	DEN	91–104	34-82	7-30	16-22	19	8	90.1	104.0	100.5
Oct 24	@DEN	135–141	50-99	11-38	24-30	18	14	116.4	119.5	106.0
Oct 23	@UTA	119–120	44-87	8-26	23-27	15	9	116.7	117.6	102.0
Oct 21	IND	120–123	38-89	10-30	34-37	14	14	114.3	117.1	105.0
Apr 12	@MIN	126–132	45-107	5-21	31-38	9	17	117.8	122.2	107.5
Apr 10	@BOS	118–144	44-96	9-32	21-30	13	8	112.4	137.1	105.0
Apr 7	UTA	156–137	61-106	14-34	20-23	16	8	127.9	112.3	122.0
Apr 5	ORL	108–112	35-84	10-31	28-36	15	9	102.9	107.7	104.5
Apr 3	@SAC	113–117	40-84	14-34	19-21	13	7	115.3	118.2	98.5
Apr 2	@POR	106–118	38-84	9-23	21-26	19	12	107.1	116.8	100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

56%

pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner

NOP was the forecast favorite

10 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual +12 for NOP

61st

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

63rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	NOP
Final score	120	132
Field goals	46–88 · 52.3%	50–85 · 58.8%
Three-pointers	12–37 · 32.4%	10–29 · 34.5%
Free throws	16–20 · 80.0%	22–32 · 68.8%
Rebounds	40	38
Assists	31	32
Turnovers	25	20
Steals	11	18
Blocks	2	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · New Orleans Pelicans

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)	+2	+12	+10
Total points	242	252	+10
SAC points	120	120	±0
NOP points	122	132	+10

Recent form before this game