2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET
PHI 5–1@CHA 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | 107 | 109 | +2 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) | 111 | 104 | −7 |
Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | PHI | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1553 | 1541 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +58 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +0.2 | +0.8 |
| Games played this season | 6 | 6 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 106.5 | 105.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 113.6 | 110.8 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.1 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 35.6 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingPHI1553CHA1541
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
PHI1553
- Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
- This season's 6 games: +29.2
- W@NYK106–100+16.0
- WCLE114–106+7.9
- WMIL127–116+3.4
- LDET93–106−11.9
- W@IND114–109+4.9
- WNYK98–93+8.9
CHA1541
- Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
- This season's 6 games: −70.9
- W@BKN110–103+3.0
- LATL81–128−48.4
- WMIA115–110+3.7
- WWAS110–103+1.6
- L@DET89–97−5.3
- L@WAS79–95−25.5
Season scoring marginPHI+0.2CHA+0.8
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
PHI+0.2
Scores 108.7, allows 105.0 over 6 games: +3.7 a game.
30% this season (+3.7) + 70% last season (−1.3) = +0.2
CHA+0.8
Scores 97.3, allows 106.0 over 6 games: −8.7 a game.
30% this season (−8.7) + 70% last season (+4.8) = +0.8
Offensive rating, last 10PHI106.5CHA105.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).
PHI106.5scored, −8.0 vs league
| Factor | PHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.8% | 54.5% | −5.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.2% | −0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 19.5% | 26.1% | −2.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.237 | 0.210 | +0.8 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
CHA105.3scored, −9.3 vs league
| Factor | CHA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 49.7% | 54.5% | −7.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.6% | 12.2% | −3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 32.0% | 26.1% | +2.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.157 | 0.210 | −1.5 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Defensive rating, last 10PHI113.6CHA110.8
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).
PHI113.6allowed, −1.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.4% | 54.5% | +0.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.3% | 12.2% | +1.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 30.4% | 26.1% | −1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.224 | 0.210 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | +1.7 |
CHA110.8allowed, −3.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.5% | 54.5% | +1.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.0% | 12.2% | +1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.9% | 26.1% | +0.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.201 | 0.210 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +0.8 |
Pace, last 10average 98.1
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
PHI 99.5 and CHA 96.7 → average 98.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)
Rotation points missingPHI35.6CHA0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
PHI35.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 19.2 | 35.2 | 5 |
| LeBron James | 16.4 | 33.5 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
CHA0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestPHI1 daysCHA1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
PHI1day, back-to-back
Last played Oct 30 against NYK.
CHA1day, back-to-back
Last played Oct 30 against WAS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
PHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | NYK | 98–93 | 37-75 | 12-34 | 12-16 | 14 | 5 | 108.9 | 103.3 | 90.0 |
| Oct 28 | @IND | 114–109 | 40-87 | 13-36 | 21-24 | 16 | 10 | 110.7 | 106.9 | 102.5 |
| Oct 25 | DET | 93–106 | 36-90 | 7-27 | 14-23 | 10 | 9 | 97.9 | 110.4 | 95.5 |
| Oct 24 | MIL | 127–116 | 40-98 | 19-44 | 28-34 | 11 | 11 | 115.5 | 104.5 | 110.5 |
| Oct 22 | CLE | 114–106 | 42-92 | 7-28 | 23-30 | 16 | 9 | 103.6 | 97.2 | 109.5 |
| Oct 20 | @NYK | 106–100 | 37-89 | 11-40 | 21-27 | 10 | 6 | 103.9 | 98.0 | 102.0 |
| May 10 | NYK | 114–144 | 43-86 | 8-35 | 20-28 | 9 | 7 | 116.3 | 146.9 | 98.0 |
| May 8 | NYK | 94–108 | 36-84 | 9-32 | 13-16 | 11 | 9 | 101.1 | 114.9 | 93.5 |
| May 6 | @NYK | 102–108 | 34-75 | 13-34 | 21-28 | 18 | 11 | 108.5 | 113.7 | 94.5 |
| May 4 | @NYK | 98–137 | 30-73 | 11-30 | 27-34 | 19 | 8 | 99.0 | 139.8 | 98.5 |
CHA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | @WAS | 79–95 | 30-101 | 12-56 | 7-12 | 10 | 18 | 83.2 | 99.0 | 95.5 |
| Oct 28 | @DET | 89–97 | 31-71 | 12-35 | 15-19 | 23 | 9 | 93.7 | 102.1 | 95.0 |
| Oct 26 | WAS | 110–103 | 42-97 | 12-39 | 14-17 | 11 | 20 | 114.6 | 108.4 | 95.5 |
| Oct 24 | MIA | 115–110 | 38-88 | 16-43 | 23-25 | 16 | 10 | 113.9 | 107.8 | 101.5 |
| Oct 23 | ATL | 81–128 | 30-87 | 11-51 | 10-12 | 25 | 19 | 81.0 | 128.0 | 100.0 |
| Oct 21 | @BKN | 110–103 | 41-93 | 15-48 | 13-15 | 20 | 15 | 107.8 | 102.0 | 101.5 |
| Apr 12 | @NYK | 110–96 | 39-85 | 19-52 | 13-17 | 17 | 12 | 118.3 | 102.1 | 93.5 |
| Apr 10 | DET | 100–118 | 34-88 | 13-47 | 19-23 | 15 | 14 | 104.2 | 124.2 | 95.5 |
| Apr 7 | @BOS | 102–113 | 38-88 | 16-49 | 10-13 | 12 | 14 | 112.1 | 122.8 | 91.5 |
| Apr 5 | @MIN | 122–108 | 45-92 | 19-45 | 13-15 | 15 | 16 | 124.5 | 111.3 | 97.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | PHI | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 109 | 104 |
| Field goals | 40–86 · 46.5% | 38–76 · 50.0% |
| Three-pointers | 14–35 · 40.0% | 14–39 · 35.9% |
| Free throws | 15–23 · 65.2% | 14–16 · 87.5% |
| Rebounds | 36 | 38 |
| Assists | 27 | 26 |
| Turnovers | 8 | 18 |
| Steals | 11 | 4 |
| Blocks | 3 | 8 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Charlotte Hornets
More about this game
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CHA) | +4 | −5 | −9 |
| Total points | 218 | 213 | −5 |
| PHI points | 107 | 109 | +2 |
| CHA points | 111 | 104 | −7 |