2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

BKN 1–5@NYK 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
BKN Brooklyn Nets	105	90	−15
NYK New York Knicks (home)	117	103	−14

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	BKN	NYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1299	1674
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+445
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.3	+5.4
Games played this season	6	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	103.6	110.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.5	110.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	7.8	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1299NYK1674

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1299

Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
This season's 6 games: −15.7

LCHA103–110−3.0
L@CLE121–125−1.3
LIND109–136−21.5
L@BOS124–125−0.6
LDET94–110−3.9
W@IND98–90+14.6

NYK1674

Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
This season's 6 games: −40.8

LPHI100–106−16.0
L@BOS103–107−7.1
LORL102–111−19.8
WDET111–97+8.5
W@CHI133–127+2.5
L@PHI93–98−8.9

Season scoring marginBKN−9.3NYK+5.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−9.3

Scores 108.2, allows 116.0 over 6 games: −7.8 a game.

30% this season (−7.8) + 70% last season (−10.0) = −9.3

NYK+5.4

Scores 107.0, allows 107.7 over 6 games: −0.7 a game.

30% this season (−0.7) + 70% last season (+7.9) = +5.4

Offensive rating, last 10BKN103.6NYK110.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN103.6scored, −11.0 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.8%	54.5%	−7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.2%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.5%	26.1%	−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.239	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			+0.4

NYK110.4scored, −4.2 vs league

Factor	NYK	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.3%	54.5%	−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.2%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.3%	26.1%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+1.6

Defensive rating, last 10BKN115.5NYK110.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN115.5allowed, +0.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.2%	54.5%	−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.2%	+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.6%	26.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			+1.4

NYK110.1allowed, −4.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.5%	+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.9%	26.1%	+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			−0.4

Pace, last 10average 98.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 100.0 and NYK 96.9 → average 98.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBKN7.8NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN7.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Egor Dëmin	7.8	21.8	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestBKN1 daysNYK3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against IND.

NYK3days

Last played Oct 30 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 1	@IND	98–90	30-73	13-39	25-31	15	7	106.5	97.8	92.0
Oct 30	DET	94–110	31-77	11-37	21-26	23	9	92.2	108.9	101.5
Oct 27	@BOS	124–125	45-97	17-50	17-22	15	12	111.7	112.6	100.5
Oct 25	IND	109–136	35-86	13-39	26-37	15	10	103.8	129.5	105.0
Oct 24	@CLE	121–125	39-98	20-49	23-27	18	18	113.1	116.8	107.0
Oct 21	CHA	103–110	36-80	12-31	19-25	22	11	102.0	107.8	101.5
Apr 12	@TOR	101–136	35-86	9-34	22-29	15	6	101.0	136.0	100.0
Apr 10	@MIL	108–125	38-84	18-45	14-16	7	5	112.5	130.2	96.0
Apr 9	IND	94–123	37-96	8-38	12-19	10	3	90.4	118.3	104.0
Apr 7	MIL	96–90	33-75	9-26	21-23	10	0	103.2	96.8	93.0

NYK

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 30	@PHI	93–98	35-86	13-41	10-14	13	14	103.3	108.9	90.0
Oct 28	@CHI	133–127	47-105	22-48	17-20	12	16	127.9	122.1	104.0
Oct 27	DET	111–97	38-88	12-36	23-28	18	19	114.4	100.0	97.0
Oct 25	ORL	102–111	38-93	9-38	17-24	14	12	102.0	112.1	99.5
Oct 23	@BOS	103–107	36-80	16-40	15-21	16	12	110.8	116.3	92.5
Oct 20	PHI	100–106	35-94	11-33	19-27	14	14	98.0	103.9	102.0
Jun 10	SAS	107–106	36-78	15-32	20-28	13	8	115.1	112.8	93.5
Jun 8	SAS	111–115	40-88	13-37	18-22	13	12	119.4	123.7	93.0
Jun 5	@SAS	105–104	37-89	15-38	16-21	12	10	108.2	105.1	98.0
Jun 3	@SAS	105–95	39-94	11-36	16-18	8	10	105.0	96.0	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

80%

pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner

NYK was the forecast favorite

1 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual +13 for NYK

133rd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

133rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.22 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	BKN	NYK
Final score	90	103
Field goals	29–76 · 38.2%	31–75 · 41.3%
Three-pointers	13–38 · 34.2%	17–44 · 38.6%
Free throws	19–27 · 70.4%	24–29 · 82.8%
Rebounds	38	43
Assists	20	24
Turnovers	13	15
Steals	7	8
Blocks	7	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · New York Knicks

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)	+12	+13	+1
Total points	222	193	−29
BKN points	105	90	−15
NYK points	117	103	−14

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 1	at IND	W 98–90
Oct 30	vs DET	L 94–110
Oct 27	at BOS	L 124–125
Oct 25	vs IND	L 109–136
Oct 24	at CLE	L 121–125

New York Knicks

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 30	at PHI	L 93–98
Oct 28	at CHI	W 133–127
Oct 27	vs DET	W 111–97
Oct 25	vs ORL	L 102–111
Oct 23	at BOS	L 103–107

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 20 2025-26	NYK at BKN	NYK 93 – 92 BKN
Jan 21 2025-26	BKN at NYK	BKN 66 – 120 NYK
Nov 24 2025-26	NYK at BKN	NYK 113 – 100 BKN
Nov 9 2025-26	BKN at NYK	BKN 98 – 134 NYK
Apr 13 2024-25	NYK at BKN	NYK 113 – 105 BKN