2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

WAS 3–3@ORL 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	107	103	−4
ORL Orlando Magic (home)	111	94	−17

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	ORL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1321	1514
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+263
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.1	−2.4
Games played this season	6	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.5	105.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.1	114.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	16.6	49.0
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1321ORL1514

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1321

Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
This season's 6 games: +40.8

WMIL128–116+13.1
LTOR102–112−4.6
W@CHI124–120+10.4
L@CHA103–110−1.6
L@CLE111–121−2.0
WCHA95–79+25.5

ORL1514

Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
This season's 6 games: −23.8

LATL125–132−11.1
LMIN93–115−19.0
W@NYK111–102+19.8
L@TOR99–129−15.5
W@TOR121–114+12.3
LBOS97–108−10.3

Season scoring marginWAS−8.1ORL−2.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−8.1

Scores 110.5, allows 109.7 over 6 games: +0.8 a game.

30% this season (+0.8) + 70% last season (−12.0) = −8.1

ORL−2.4

Scores 107.7, allows 116.7 over 6 games: −9.0 a game.

30% this season (−9.0) + 70% last season (+0.5) = −2.4

Offensive rating, last 10WAS108.5ORL105.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS108.5scored, −6.1 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.0%	54.5%	−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.2%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	17.8%	26.1%	−3.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.240	0.210	+0.9
Everything else			+1.6

ORL105.1scored, −9.5 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.5%	54.5%	−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.3%	26.1%	−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.246	0.210	+1.0
Everything else			−1.1

Defensive rating, last 10WAS115.1ORL114.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.4%	54.5%	+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.2%	+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.6%	26.1%	−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.206	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			+1.0

ORL114.4allowed, −0.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.5%	+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.2%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.2%	26.1%	−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.244	0.210	−1.0
Everything else			−0.4

Pace, last 10average 99.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 102.0 and ORL 97.3 → average 99.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingWAS16.6ORL49.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS16.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Alex Sarr	9.3	25.4	6
Justin Champagnie	7.2	18.3	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

ORL49.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Paolo Banchero	24.5	33.8	2
Anthony Black	16.5	27.9	4
Jalen Suggs	8.0	33.4	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestWAS3 daysORL1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS3days

Last played Oct 30 against CHA.

ORL1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 30	CHA	95–79	28-72	10-30	29-35	14	8	99.0	83.2	95.5
Oct 28	@CLE	111–121	44-83	8-32	15-17	10	5	119.4	127.4	94.0
Oct 26	@CHA	103–110	41-85	9-28	12-15	14	10	108.4	114.6	95.5
Oct 24	@CHI	124–120	45-94	10-33	24-28	13	11	118.1	113.2	105.5
Oct 23	TOR	102–112	30-79	12-37	30-35	20	6	95.3	104.7	107.0
Oct 21	MIL	128–116	45-86	6-28	32-41	11	12	123.1	112.6	103.5
Apr 12	@CLE	117–130	42-90	18-41	15-19	12	5	117.0	128.7	100.5
Apr 10	MIA	117–140	46-92	14-31	11-14	13	4	113.6	135.9	103.0
Apr 9	CHI	108–119	38-96	10-38	22-27	17	10	100.9	111.2	107.0
Apr 7	CHI	98–129	37-86	11-38	13-21	21	3	89.9	119.4	108.5

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 1	BOS	97–108	34-81	14-39	15-19	16	13	104.3	116.1	93.0
Oct 30	@TOR	121–114	39-74	18-34	25-29	13	9	131.5	125.3	91.5
Oct 28	@TOR	99–129	33-80	10-35	23-29	20	9	98.0	125.2	102.0
Oct 25	@NYK	111–102	38-88	18-42	17-21	15	10	112.1	102.0	99.5
Oct 23	MIN	93–115	37-84	8-39	11-19	16	8	92.1	113.9	101.0
Oct 21	ATL	125–132	41-85	13-40	30-39	20	9	114.7	118.9	110.0
May 3	@DET	94–116	31-75	10-30	22-30	13	9	102.2	126.1	92.0
May 1	DET	79–93	27-78	9-36	16-21	10	8	89.8	105.7	88.0
Apr 29	@DET	109–116	38-80	17-38	16-30	16	8	111.2	120.8	97.0
Apr 27	DET	94–88	30-92	9-35	25-34	10	16	94.9	89.8	98.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

39%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored ORL

13 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual −9 for ORL

19th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

49th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	ORL
Final score	103	94
Field goals	40–75 · 53.3%	37–80 · 46.3%
Three-pointers	9–24 · 37.5%	11–39 · 28.2%
Free throws	14–18 · 77.8%	9–10 · 90.0%
Rebounds	35	32
Assists	26	23
Turnovers	14	17
Steals	10	6
Blocks	5	1

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Orlando Magic

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)	+4	−9	−13
Total points	218	197	−21
WAS points	107	103	−4
ORL points	111	94	−17

Recent form before this game