2026-27 · Regular Season · Scheduled

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons

Monday, November 9, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

WAS 4–6@DET 6–3 records going into the game

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final
WAS Washington Wizards	106	–
DET Detroit Pistons (home)	119	–

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DET

Home court+2.1 DETWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+8.7 DETElo DET 1637, WAS 1327; season margin DET +7.4, WAS −8.3.
Recent form+3.1 DETLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DET scores 111.2 and allows 107.3; WAS scores 108.1 and allows 112.9.
Rest and schedule+0.4 WASDET 1 days of rest, WAS 2. DET on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: DET by 13, a 82% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DET is 6–3, winning by 8 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 104). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 25% of its own misses (league 27%), which alone costs about 1.0 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.6. Jalen Duren (13 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS is 4–6, losing by 5 a game on average (scoring 108, allowing 112). Last season they were a −12 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −2.4, ball security +1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.1, free throws allowed +1.6. Justin Champagnie and Bilal Coulibaly are out (14 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DET; left favors WAS.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +13.5. The 82% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	WAS	DET	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1327	1637	+1.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+380		+6.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.3	+7.4	+1.6
Games played this season	10	9	−0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.1	111.2	+0.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.9	107.3	+1.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.2		+0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	14.4	13.0	−0.2
Rest days	2	1	−0.4
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes	−0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	DET pts	WAS pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	380.3	+4.20	−2.58	+6.78
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	107.3	−0.03	−2.09	+2.07
Season scoring margin (away)	-8.3	+0.80	−0.52	+1.32
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	108.1	−0.01	−1.23	+1.22
Rotation points missing (away)	14.4	−0.30	+0.40	−0.71
Combined pace, last 10	99.2	−0.15	−0.85	+0.69
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	112.9	−0.70	−0.10	−0.60
Elo rating (away)	1327.2	+0.43	−0.14	+0.56
Games played (away)	10.0	−0.08	+0.49	−0.56
Rotation points missing (home)	13.0	+0.63	+0.11	+0.52
Elo rating (home)	1637.4	+0.26	−0.23	+0.49
Rest days (home)	1.0	−0.07	+0.26	−0.33
Season scoring margin (home)	7.4	+0.14	−0.19	+0.33
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	111.2	−0.35	−0.06	−0.28
Games played (home)	9.0	−0.17	+0.03	−0.20
Home series wins	0.0	+0.19	+0.04	+0.15
Series pressure	0.0	+0.06	+0.03	+0.03
Back-to-back (home)	1	−0.03	±0.00	−0.03
Rest days (away)	2.0	+0.01	+0.03	−0.02
Elimination game	0	+0.00	+0.01	−0.00
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1327DET16377.8 pts toward DET

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1327

Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
This season's 10 games: +47.3

WMIL128–116+13.1
LTOR102–112−4.6
W@CHI124–120+10.4
L@CHA103–110−1.6
L@CLE111–121−2.0
WCHA95–79+25.5
W@ORL103–94+20.2
LATL105–120−8.1
L@ATL132–139−2.3
L@OKC75–114−3.3

DET1637

Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
This season's 9 games: +28.3

WBOS121–113+6.7
W@MIA128–111+12.1
W@PHI106–93+11.9
L@NYK97–111−8.5
WCHA97–89+5.3
W@BKN110–94+3.9
W@CHA124–91+20.2
LPHI106–112−12.8
LLAL116–121−10.5

Season scoring marginWAS−8.3DET+7.40.9 pts toward DET

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−8.3

Scores 107.8, allows 112.5 over 10 games: −4.7 a game.

50% this season (−4.7) + 50% last season (−12.0) = −8.3

DET+7.4

Scores 111.7, allows 103.9 over 9 games: +7.8 a game.

45% this season (+7.8) + 55% last season (+7.2) = +7.4

Offensive rating, last 10WAS108.1DET111.20.9 pts toward DET

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

WAS108.1scored, −4.3 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	53.3%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	13.2%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.9%	27.3%	−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.243	0.226	+0.5
Everything else			−1.0

DET111.2scored, −1.2 vs league

Factor	DET	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	53.3%	+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	13.2%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.0%	27.3%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.206	0.226	−0.6
Everything else			−0.7

Defensive rating, last 10WAS112.9DET107.31.5 pts toward DET

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

WAS112.9allowed, +0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.2%	53.3%	+3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	13.2%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.8%	27.3%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.226	+1.6
Everything else			−1.6

DET107.3allowed, −5.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.4%	53.3%	+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.4%	13.2%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.1%	27.3%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.236	0.226	−0.3
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 99.20.7 pts toward DET

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 99.6 and DET 98.8 → average 99.2 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingWAS14.4DET13.00.2 pts toward WAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS14.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Justin Champagnie	7.2	18.3	4
Bilal Coulibaly	7.2	25.8	10

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

DET13.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Duren	13.0	19.1	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysDET1 days0.4 pts toward WAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Nov 7 against OKC.

DET1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 8 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 7	@OKC	75–114	29-98	7-43	10-15	11	15	75.8	117.5	98.0
Nov 6	@ATL	132–139	46-91	18-34	22-24	16	14	124.5	132.4	105.5
Nov 4	ATL	105–120	42-88	6-26	15-21	12	9	105.0	118.8	100.5
Nov 2	@ORL	103–94	40-75	9-24	14-18	14	6	112.0	104.4	91.0
Oct 30	CHA	95–79	28-72	10-30	29-35	14	8	99.0	83.2	95.5
Oct 28	@CLE	111–121	44-83	8-32	15-17	10	5	119.4	127.4	94.0
Oct 26	@CHA	103–110	41-85	9-28	12-15	14	10	108.4	114.6	95.5
Oct 24	@CHI	124–120	45-94	10-33	24-28	13	11	118.1	113.2	105.5
Oct 23	TOR	102–112	30-79	12-37	30-35	20	6	95.3	104.7	107.0
Oct 21	MIL	128–116	45-86	6-28	32-41	11	12	123.1	112.6	103.5

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 8	LAL	116–121	42-94	19-48	13-20	12	18	119.6	124.7	97.0
Nov 4	PHI	106–112	38-83	12-34	18-23	12	4	105.0	109.8	101.5
Nov 2	@CHA	124–91	47-82	18-37	12-15	14	6	126.5	94.8	97.0
Oct 30	@BKN	110–94	38-90	12-41	22-28	12	9	108.9	92.2	101.5
Oct 28	CHA	97–89	34-76	13-33	16-20	13	7	102.1	93.7	95.0
Oct 27	@NYK	97–111	37-87	9-37	14-24	14	15	100.0	114.4	97.0
Oct 25	@PHI	106–93	38-87	14-34	16-25	15	15	110.4	97.9	95.5
Oct 23	@MIA	128–111	47-89	18-38	16-20	19	12	125.5	107.8	102.5
Oct 20	BOS	121–113	39-86	15-40	28-32	17	14	119.8	113.0	100.5
May 17	CLE	94–125	30-85	12-39	22-29	14	10	94.0	125.0	100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

More about this game

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.