2026-27 · Regular Season · Scheduled

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors

Monday, November 9, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

MEM 6–3@TOR 5–4 records going into the game

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final
MEM Memphis Grizzlies	112	–
TOR Toronto Raptors (home)	114	–

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans TOR

Home court+2.1 TORWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Player availability+5.5 MEMMEM without Isaiah Stewart (12 ppg) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (6 ppg); TOR without Scottie Barnes (24 ppg) and Kawhi Leonard (20 ppg) and 2 more.
Team strength+4.4 TORElo TOR 1546, MEM 1395; season margin TOR +3.8, MEM −0.6.
Recent form+1.1 TORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: TOR scores 115.3 and allows 112.0; MEM scores 112.8 and allows 110.5.

Together: TOR by 2, a 55% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

TOR is 5–4, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 113). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +2.0, offensive rebounding +1.6. Their defense forces turnovers on 16.6% of opponent possessions (league 13.2%), which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −2.3, shooting defense −2.1. Scottie Barnes, Kawhi Leonard, Immanuel Quickley and Collin Murray-Boyles are out (71 rotation points a game combined).

MEM is 6–3, winning by 6 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 112). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense is close to league average on all four factors. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.7. Isaiah Stewart and Scotty Pippen Jr. are out (18 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors TOR; left favors MEM.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.4. The 55% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	MEM	TOR	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1395	1546	+1.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+221		+3.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.6	+3.8	+0.7
Games played this season	9	9	−1.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.8	115.3	+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.5	112.0	−0.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.6		+1.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	18.3	71.0	−5.5
Rest days	3	3	+0.1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	TOR pts	MEM pts	Margin
Rotation points missing (home)	71.0	−5.16	+0.09	−5.25
Elo gap incl. home court	221.0	+1.45	−2.15	+3.60
Combined pace, last 10	101.6	+3.70	+2.29	+1.41
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	110.5	−1.38	−0.05	−1.32
Games played (away)	9.0	−0.29	+0.42	−0.72
Season scoring margin (home)	3.8	+0.56	−0.14	+0.71
Elo rating (away)	1395.4	+0.68	±0.00	+0.68
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	112.0	−0.55	−1.22	+0.67
Elo rating (home)	1546.4	+0.12	−0.37	+0.50
Games played (home)	9.0	−0.14	+0.15	−0.29
Rotation points missing (away)	18.3	+0.11	+0.39	−0.29
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	115.3	+0.15	−0.07	+0.22
Home series wins	0.0	+0.21	+0.04	+0.17
Rest days (home)	3.0	+0.09	−0.05	+0.14
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	112.8	+0.07	−0.06	+0.14
Season scoring margin (away)	-0.6	+0.15	+0.19	−0.03
Series pressure	0.0	+0.05	+0.02	+0.03
Elimination game	0	+0.01	−0.00	+0.01
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.00	±0.00	+0.00
Rest days (away)	3.0	−0.02	−0.02	−0.00
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1395TOR15464.8 pts toward TOR

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1395

Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
This season's 9 games: +65.9

WUTA123–103+12.8
W@GSW111–108+9.2
W@SAC123–112+14.2
W@UTA110–105+7.8
W@POR124–103+34.1
WSAC136–105+12.2
LNOP134–135−5.0
LIND103–107−9.8
LOKC97–128−9.6

TOR1546

Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
This season's 9 games: +5.7

WCHI135–92+10.0
W@WAS112–102+4.6
L@MIN94–117−11.6
WORL129–99+15.5
LORL114–121−12.3
L@LAL125–131−5.4
W@LAC125–118+9.0
L@DEN109–128−11.5
W@MIL121–107+7.4

Season scoring marginMEM−0.6TOR+3.80.3 pts toward MEM

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−0.6

Scores 117.9, allows 111.8 over 9 games: +6.1 a game.

45% this season (+6.1) + 55% last season (−6.1) = −0.6

TOR+3.8

Scores 118.2, allows 112.8 over 9 games: +5.4 a game.

45% this season (+5.4) + 55% last season (+2.5) = +3.8

Offensive rating, last 10MEM112.8TOR115.30.4 pts toward TOR

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

MEM112.8scored, +0.4 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	53.3%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	13.2%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.5%	27.3%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.226	−0.5
Everything else			+1.1

TOR115.3scored, +3.0 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	53.3%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	13.2%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.8%	27.3%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.226	+0.1
Everything else			+1.4

Defensive rating, last 10MEM110.5TOR112.00.7 pts toward MEM

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

MEM110.5allowed, −1.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	53.3%	+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	13.2%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.1%	27.3%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.226	+0.3
Everything else			+1.1

TOR112.0allowed, −0.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	53.3%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	16.6%	13.2%	+4.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.0%	27.3%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.305	0.226	−2.3
Everything else			+0.6

Pace, last 10average 101.61.4 pts toward TOR

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 101.9 and TOR 101.2 → average 101.6 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingMEM18.3TOR71.05.5 pts toward MEM

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM18.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Isaiah Stewart	11.9	18.3	7
Scotty Pippen Jr.	6.4	16.0	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

TOR71.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Scottie Barnes	23.5	33.3	8
Kawhi Leonard	19.5	25.8	2
Immanuel Quickley	17.4	31.8	8
Collin Murray-Boyles	10.7	22.1	9

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMEM3 daysTOR3 days0.1 pts toward TOR

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM3days

Last played Nov 6 against OKC.

TOR3days

Last played Nov 6 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	OKC	97–128	29-88	10-45	29-31	18	13	93.3	123.1	104.0
Nov 4	IND	103–107	41-91	12-44	9-15	19	13	100.0	104.9	102.5
Nov 2	NOP	134–135	47-91	18-40	22-27	16	11	124.1	123.9	98.3
Oct 31	SAC	136–105	47-85	19-38	23-27	17	6	128.3	100.0	105.5
Oct 29	@POR	124–103	47-102	18-42	12-12	10	15	121.6	101.0	102.0
Oct 26	@UTA	110–105	37-85	16-37	20-22	12	6	110.0	104.0	100.5
Oct 25	@SAC	123–112	42-96	15-41	24-27	12	19	121.8	113.1	100.0
Oct 23	@GSW	111–108	40-86	15-39	16-22	25	18	112.1	108.0	99.5
Oct 21	UTA	123–103	44-93	13-34	22-28	13	15	118.3	99.0	104.0
Apr 12	@HOU	101–132	39-95	13-49	10-10	13	3	98.1	128.2	103.0

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	@MIL	121–107	44-93	9-32	24-31	16	15	122.2	109.2	98.5
Nov 4	@DEN	109–128	41-85	12-34	15-22	15	11	112.4	130.6	97.5
Nov 2	@LAC	125–118	43-83	8-29	31-48	13	13	123.8	115.7	101.5
Nov 1	@LAL	125–131	45-105	17-54	18-25	15	22	116.8	123.6	106.5
Oct 30	ORL	114–121	46-91	11-27	11-15	11	15	125.3	131.5	91.5
Oct 28	ORL	129–99	44-88	15-35	26-31	14	8	125.2	98.0	102.0
Oct 25	@MIN	94–117	35-91	10-38	14-21	16	14	95.9	118.2	98.5
Oct 23	@WAS	112–102	44-101	7-34	17-21	16	19	104.7	95.3	107.0
Oct 21	CHI	135–92	44-98	10-31	37-46	10	16	122.7	82.1	111.0
May 3	@CLE	102–114	38-87	8-28	18-26	14	7	104.1	116.3	98.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

More about this game

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.