2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

NOP 2–4@MEM 6–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans	118	135	+17
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home)	120	134	+14

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	NOP	MEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1429	1420
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+61
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.6	+0.3
Games played this season	6	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.2	113.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.0	114.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	105.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	33.3	6.4
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1429MEM1420

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1429

Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
This season's 6 games: +5.4

LIND120–123−8.2
L@UTA119–120−4.4
L@DEN135–141−2.5
LDEN91–104−9.0
WSAC132–120+6.8
WATL121–99+22.7

MEM1420

Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
This season's 6 games: +90.3

WUTA123–103+12.8
W@GSW111–108+9.2
W@SAC123–112+14.2
W@UTA110–105+7.8
W@POR124–103+34.1
WSAC136–105+12.2

Season scoring marginNOP−2.6MEM+0.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−2.6

Scores 119.7, allows 117.8 over 6 games: +1.8 a game.

30% this season (+1.8) + 70% last season (−4.5) = −2.6

MEM+0.3

Scores 121.2, allows 106.0 over 6 games: +15.2 a game.

30% this season (+15.2) + 70% last season (−6.1) = +0.3

Offensive rating, last 10NOP113.2MEM113.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP113.2scored, −1.4 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.5%	−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.5%	12.2%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	26.1%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.274	0.210	+1.9
Everything else			+0.7

MEM113.5scored, −1.1 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	54.5%	±0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.2%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.2%	26.1%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.210	−1.1
Everything else			+1.9

Defensive rating, last 10NOP114.0MEM114.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP114.0allowed, −0.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.4%	54.5%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.2%	+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	26.1%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.240	0.210	−0.9
Everything else			+0.5

MEM114.9allowed, +0.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.4%	54.5%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	35.6%	26.1%	−4.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			+3.9

Pace, last 10average 105.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 106.9 and MEM 103.8 → average 105.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNOP33.3MEM6.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP33.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Dejounte Murray	17.8	32.3	4
Yves Missi	9.5	19.6	2
Jordan Poole	6.0	15.9	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

MEM6.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Scotty Pippen Jr.	6.4	16.0	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysMEM2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Oct 31 against ATL.

MEM2days

Last played Oct 31 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 31	ATL	121–99	43-76	7-17	28-35	23	10	114.2	94.3	105.5
Oct 29	SAC	132–120	50-85	10-29	22-32	20	5	118.9	108.1	111.0
Oct 28	DEN	91–104	34-82	7-30	16-22	19	8	90.1	104.0	100.5
Oct 24	@DEN	135–141	50-99	11-38	24-30	18	14	116.4	119.5	106.0
Oct 23	@UTA	119–120	44-87	8-26	23-27	15	9	116.7	117.6	102.0
Oct 21	IND	120–123	38-89	10-30	34-37	14	14	114.3	117.1	105.0
Apr 12	@MIN	126–132	45-107	5-21	31-38	9	17	117.8	122.2	107.5
Apr 10	@BOS	118–144	44-96	9-32	21-30	13	8	112.4	137.1	105.0
Apr 7	UTA	156–137	61-106	14-34	20-23	16	8	127.9	112.3	122.0
Apr 5	ORL	108–112	35-84	10-31	28-36	15	9	102.9	107.7	104.5

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 31	SAC	136–105	47-85	19-38	23-27	17	6	128.3	100.0	105.5
Oct 29	@POR	124–103	47-102	18-42	12-12	10	15	121.6	101.0	102.0
Oct 26	@UTA	110–105	37-85	16-37	20-22	12	6	110.0	104.0	100.5
Oct 25	@SAC	123–112	42-96	15-41	24-27	12	19	121.8	113.1	100.0
Oct 23	@GSW	111–108	40-86	15-39	16-22	25	18	112.1	108.0	99.5
Oct 21	UTA	123–103	44-93	13-34	22-28	13	15	118.3	99.0	104.0
Apr 12	@HOU	101–132	39-95	13-49	10-10	13	3	98.1	128.2	103.0
Apr 10	@UTA	101–147	41-109	11-52	8-9	19	4	83.5	121.5	121.0
Apr 8	@DEN	119–136	42-92	19-50	16-23	6	3	119.0	136.0	100.0
Apr 6	CLE	126–142	45-94	29-59	7-10	13	3	122.3	137.9	103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner

the forecast favored MEM

3 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual −1 for MEM

37th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

116th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	NOP	MEM
Final score	135	134
Field goals	48–101 · 47.5%	47–91 · 51.6%
Three-pointers	14–37 · 37.8%	18–40 · 45.0%
Free throws	25–30 · 83.3%	22–27 · 81.5%
Rebounds	47	49
Assists	27	30
Turnovers	8	16
Steals	8	5
Blocks	3	9

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Memphis Grizzlies

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)	+2	−1	−3
Total points	238	269	+31
NOP points	118	135	+17
MEM points	120	134	+14

Recent form before this game