2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers

Thursday, October 29, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

MEM 4–0@POR 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies	112	124	+12
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home)	122	103	−19

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MEM	POR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1374	1551
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+247
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−3.0	+2.0
Games played this season	4	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.1	113.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.3	112.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	9.7
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1374POR1551

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1374

Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
This season's 4 games: +44.0

WUTA123–103+12.8
W@GSW111–108+9.2
W@SAC123–112+14.2
W@UTA110–105+7.8

POR1551

Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
This season's 3 games: +40.2

WPHX124–83+22.0
W@SAC128–120+6.0
W@LAL136–129+12.2

Season scoring marginMEM−3.0POR+2.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−3.0

Scores 116.8, allows 107.0 over 4 games: +9.8 a game.

20% this season (+9.8) + 80% last season (−6.1) = −3.0

POR+2.0

Scores 129.3, allows 110.7 over 3 games: +18.7 a game.

15% this season (+18.7) + 85% last season (−1.0) = +2.0

Offensive rating, last 10MEM109.1POR113.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM109.1scored, −5.5 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.5%	−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.2%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.3%	26.1%	−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.177	0.210	−0.9
Everything else			+2.2

POR113.7scored, −0.9 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.4%	54.5%	−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.2%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.0%	26.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.215	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			−0.5

Defensive rating, last 10MEM120.3POR112.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM120.3allowed, +5.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.7%	54.5%	−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.2%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	42.2%	26.1%	−7.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.226	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+6.1

POR112.6allowed, −2.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	54.5%	+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.2%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	26.1%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			+0.4

Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 103.5 and POR 98.3 → average 100.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0POR9.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

POR9.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Robert Williams III	9.7	18.1	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMEM3 daysPOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM3days

Last played Oct 26 against UTA.

POR2days

Last played Oct 27 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 26	@UTA	110–105	37-85	16-37	20-22	12	6	110.0	104.0	100.5
Oct 25	@SAC	123–112	42-96	15-41	24-27	12	19	121.8	113.1	100.0
Oct 23	@GSW	111–108	40-86	15-39	16-22	25	18	112.1	108.0	99.5
Oct 21	UTA	123–103	44-93	13-34	22-28	13	15	118.3	99.0	104.0
Apr 12	@HOU	101–132	39-95	13-49	10-10	13	3	98.1	128.2	103.0
Apr 10	@UTA	101–147	41-109	11-52	8-9	19	4	83.5	121.5	121.0
Apr 8	@DEN	119–136	42-92	19-50	16-23	6	3	119.0	136.0	100.0
Apr 6	CLE	126–142	45-94	29-59	7-10	13	3	122.3	137.9	103.0
Apr 5	@MIL	115–131	38-92	17-46	22-28	14	9	112.7	129.7	101.5
Apr 3	TOR	96–128	34-85	11-42	17-26	20	8	93.2	125.5	102.5

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	@LAL	136–129	46-78	18-36	26-41	14	7	133.3	129.0	101.0
Oct 23	@SAC	128–120	46-96	14-48	22-30	9	13	120.8	113.2	106.0
Oct 21	PHX	124–83	45-94	19-47	15-18	17	16	126.5	86.5	97.0
Apr 28	@SAS	95–114	33-94	11-47	18-23	9	14	99.0	121.3	95.0
Apr 26	SAS	93–114	32-80	10-31	19-23	18	7	93.0	116.3	99.0
Apr 24	SAS	108–120	37-90	14-38	20-29	10	16	109.1	122.4	98.5
Apr 21	@SAS	106–103	38-89	13-38	17-23	15	15	108.2	106.2	97.5
Apr 19	@SAS	98–111	39-91	10-38	10-12	10	8	102.1	116.8	95.5
Apr 12	SAC	122–110	47-101	16-46	12-15	12	18	123.2	112.2	98.5
Apr 10	LAC	116–97	37-83	12-39	30-35	13	14	122.1	102.1	95.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner

the forecast favored POR

31 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −21 for POR

3rd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

6th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 1.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MEM	POR
Final score	124	103
Field goals	47–102 · 46.1%	37–91 · 40.7%
Three-pointers	18–42 · 42.9%	12–49 · 24.5%
Free throws	12–12 · 100.0%	17–26 · 65.4%
Rebounds	54	45
Assists	32	23
Turnovers	10	16
Steals	7	5
Blocks	1	11

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Portland Trail Blazers

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (POR)	+10	−21	−31
Total points	234	227	−7
MEM points	112	124	+12
POR points	122	103	−19

Recent form before this game