2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

MEM 3–0@UTA 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies	121	110	−11
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	122	105	−17

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MEM	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1366	1324
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+28
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−3.5	−8.6
Games played this season	3	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.8	109.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	123.6	121.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	105.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1366UTA1324

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1366

Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
This season's 3 games: +36.2

WUTA123–103+12.8
W@GSW111–108+9.2
W@SAC123–112+14.2

UTA1324

Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
This season's 3 games: −12.9

L@MEM103–123−12.8
WNOP120–119+4.4
LLAL123–132−4.5

Season scoring marginMEM−3.5UTA−8.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−3.5

Scores 119.0, allows 107.7 over 3 games: +11.3 a game.

15% this season (+11.3) + 85% last season (−6.1) = −3.5

UTA−8.6

Scores 115.3, allows 124.7 over 3 games: −9.3 a game.

15% this season (−9.3) + 85% last season (−8.4) = −8.6

Offensive rating, last 10MEM110.8UTA109.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM110.8scored, −3.8 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.0%	54.5%	−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.2%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.8%	26.1%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			+2.7

UTA109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	54.5%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.8%	26.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			−2.4

Defensive rating, last 10MEM123.6UTA121.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM123.6allowed, +9.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.3%	54.5%	−7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.2%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	47.1%	26.1%	−9.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			+6.8

UTA121.7allowed, +7.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.8%	54.5%	−6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.2%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	26.1%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			+0.4

Pace, last 10average 105.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.9 and UTA 107.5 → average 105.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0UTA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMEM1 daysUTA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against SAC.

UTA1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 25	@SAC	123–112	42-96	15-41	24-27	12	19	121.8	113.1	100.0
Oct 23	@GSW	111–108	40-86	15-39	16-22	25	18	112.1	108.0	99.5
Oct 21	UTA	123–103	44-93	13-34	22-28	13	15	118.3	99.0	104.0
Apr 12	@HOU	101–132	39-95	13-49	10-10	13	3	98.1	128.2	103.0
Apr 10	@UTA	101–147	41-109	11-52	8-9	19	4	83.5	121.5	121.0
Apr 8	@DEN	119–136	42-92	19-50	16-23	6	3	119.0	136.0	100.0
Apr 6	CLE	126–142	45-94	29-59	7-10	13	3	122.3	137.9	103.0
Apr 5	@MIL	115–131	38-92	17-46	22-28	14	9	112.7	129.7	101.5
Apr 3	TOR	96–128	34-85	11-42	17-26	20	8	93.2	125.5	102.5
Apr 1	NYK	119–130	39-76	16-36	25-30	13	3	126.6	136.8	94.5

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 25	LAL	123–132	46-95	10-35	21-27	17	20	120.6	130.7	101.5
Oct 23	NOP	120–119	41-84	13-35	25-33	18	14	117.6	116.7	102.0
Oct 21	@MEM	103–123	35-75	11-32	22-33	18	5	99.0	118.3	104.0
Apr 12	@LAL	107–131	41-94	7-34	18-27	16	14	101.9	123.6	105.5
Apr 10	MEM	147–101	62-110	15-35	8-17	16	8	121.5	83.5	121.0
Apr 7	@NOP	137–156	53-104	10-32	21-24	16	7	112.3	127.9	122.0
Apr 5	@OKC	111–146	43-100	14-39	11-15	16	14	101.8	136.4	108.0
Apr 3	@HOU	106–140	43-96	5-27	15-22	13	17	102.9	138.6	102.0
Apr 1	DEN	117–130	44-95	12-37	17-25	12	10	109.3	121.5	107.0
Mar 30	CLE	113–122	42-88	15-29	14-20	15	8	110.8	119.6	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner

the forecast favored UTA

6 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual −5 for UTA

45th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

94th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MEM	UTA
Final score	110	105
Field goals	37–85 · 43.5%	38–92 · 41.3%
Three-pointers	16–37 · 43.2%	10–33 · 30.3%
Free throws	20–22 · 90.9%	19–25 · 76.0%
Rebounds	42	49
Assists	26	25
Turnovers	12	13
Steals	5	3
Blocks	4	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Utah Jazz

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	+1	−5	−6
Total points	243	215	−28
MEM points	121	110	−11
UTA points	122	105	−17

Recent form before this game