2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

SAS 2–2@UTA 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	127	117	−10
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	112	111	−1

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 85% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1685	1316
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−299
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+7.9	−8.4
Games played this season	4	4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.0	109.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.6	120.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	16.3
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1685UTA1316

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1685

Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
This season's 4 games: −18.6

LOKC104–116−15.8
LHOU110–114−11.1
W@DAL122–106+5.7
WSAC130–103+2.6

UTA1316

Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
This season's 4 games: −20.7

L@MEM103–123−12.8
WNOP120–119+4.4
LLAL123–132−4.5
LMEM105–110−7.8

Season scoring marginSAS+7.9UTA−8.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+7.9

Scores 116.5, allows 109.8 over 4 games: +6.8 a game.

20% this season (+6.8) + 80% last season (+8.2) = +7.9

UTA−8.4

Scores 112.8, allows 121.0 over 4 games: −8.3 a game.

20% this season (−8.3) + 80% last season (−8.4) = −8.4

Offensive rating, last 10SAS114.0UTA109.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAS114.0scored, −0.6 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	54.5%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.2%	+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	26.1%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			+1.6

UTA109.1scored, −5.5 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.7%	54.5%	−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.2%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.8%	26.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			−2.6

Defensive rating, last 10SAS108.6UTA120.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAS108.6allowed, −6.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	54.5%	+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.2%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.2%	26.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.182	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			+0.1

UTA120.7allowed, +6.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.6%	54.5%	−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.2%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.7%	26.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			−0.0

Pace, last 10average 102.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 97.8 and UTA 107.3 → average 102.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0UTA16.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

UTA16.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaren Jackson Jr.	16.2	26.1	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysUTA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 27 against SAC.

UTA2days

Last played Oct 26 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	SAC	130–103	49-90	17-37	15-19	13	9	130.0	103.0	100.0
Oct 24	@DAL	122–106	48-101	15-42	11-16	12	15	118.4	103.9	102.5
Oct 23	HOU	110–114	40-87	12-37	18-25	15	9	112.2	117.5	97.5
Oct 20	OKC	104–116	36-93	10-37	22-25	13	10	102.0	113.7	102.0
Jun 10	@NYK	106–107	36-86	17-43	17-20	11	12	112.8	115.1	93.5
Jun 8	@NYK	115–111	39-84	12-34	25-32	8	6	123.7	119.4	93.0
Jun 5	NYK	104–105	37-78	11-29	19-27	16	5	105.1	108.2	98.0
Jun 3	NYK	95–105	32-89	11-43	20-25	13	14	96.0	105.0	99.5
May 30	@OKC	111–103	40-88	17-40	14-19	12	15	120.7	109.6	93.0
May 28	OKC	118–91	41-88	15-41	21-25	12	11	119.2	91.0	99.5

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 26	MEM	105–110	38-92	10-33	19-25	13	14	104.0	110.0	100.5
Oct 25	LAL	123–132	46-95	10-35	21-27	17	20	120.6	130.7	101.5
Oct 23	NOP	120–119	41-84	13-35	25-33	18	14	117.6	116.7	102.0
Oct 21	@MEM	103–123	35-75	11-32	22-33	18	5	99.0	118.3	104.0
Apr 12	@LAL	107–131	41-94	7-34	18-27	16	14	101.9	123.6	105.5
Apr 10	MEM	147–101	62-110	15-35	8-17	16	8	121.5	83.5	121.0
Apr 7	@NOP	137–156	53-104	10-32	21-24	16	7	112.3	127.9	122.0
Apr 5	@OKC	111–146	43-100	14-39	11-15	16	14	101.8	136.4	108.0
Apr 3	@HOU	106–140	43-96	5-27	15-22	13	17	102.9	138.6	102.0
Apr 1	DEN	117–130	44-95	12-37	17-25	12	10	109.3	121.5	107.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

85%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

SAS was the forecast favorite

9 pts

margin miss

forecast −15, actual −6 for UTA

144th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

67th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.16 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	UTA
Final score	117	111
Field goals	44–101 · 43.6%	39–92 · 42.4%
Three-pointers	12–38 · 31.6%	15–39 · 38.5%
Free throws	17–21 · 81.0%	18–19 · 94.7%
Rebounds	51	53
Assists	30	24
Turnovers	11	19
Steals	14	3
Blocks	5	5

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Utah Jazz

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	−15	−6	+9
Total points	239	228	−11
SAS points	127	117	−10
UTA points	112	111	−1

Recent form before this game